Three weeks are in the books, which means three managers in your Yahoo Fantasy guillotine-style leagues presented by Liquid Death are no longer around. It’s a wicked game, isn’t it? Of course, it’s wickedly fun when you’re on the good side of things.
Every week I’ll examine the most common NFL players on those cut teams and try to figure out where the puck is headed. I will also offer some FAB advice ($1,000 cap is the Yahoo default), but please remember this area is highly context-sensitive and manager-specific.
Waiver strategy in guillotine-style leagues
If you’re new to this format, it’s critical to understand that waiver strategy is significantly different in the world of guillotine-style leagues.
You can often win a traditional fantasy league with modest help from the waiver wire, maybe a timely pickup or two. Sure, it’s great if you crush the market and land the right guys and the best managers will always aim to be smart on the wire, but if your drafted team stays healthy and runs pure, some years that might be enough.
Immediate needs vs. playing the long game
In guillotine-style leagues, the eventual winning manager will have assembled a MONSTER team at the end of the year, a juggernaut, a Pro Bowl-type of roster. And the way you build that beast is usually by having resources all season — by not blowing the majority of your FAB on a tantalizing early star. It’s pivotal that you understand that the waiver wire should get stronger and stronger every week in guillotine-style leagues, because the eliminated manager is coming from a smaller and smaller league size every week.
Unless you have a draft touched by the fantasy angels, you are unlikely to win a guillotine-style league without a successful and careful waiver-wire strategy.
My guillotine-style strategy is centered on the concept that I like my squad early in the year and I am confident I can beat at least one team per week while the field of opponents is large. Therefore, while I will dip my toes into the FAB market in the first quarter of the season, my primary goal is to keep major reserves in play for later in the year, when bye weeks hit and injuries are more prevalent — and the pool of opponents is smaller (so advancing is harder, in theory). Again, I urge you to remember: the waiver wire in guillotine-style gets stronger as the year gets deeper, a key reason to be judicious with your resources.
Not everyone will share my strategy, of course. If you want to chase major improvements and use the bulk of your FAB to load up quickly, then shoot your shot. Play the strategy you’re comfortable with. Just understand that my recommendations are predicated on being careful early, and if you prefer something more aggressive, you’ll have to jump the numbers up. You know your room better than an outsider does.
Understanding FAB recommendations
Going forward I will offer weekly FAB recommendations in three buckets:
Proactive: This means you highly covet this player, perhaps might even need this player. I realize these bids might not win if someone in your league is lighting money on fire, but as described above, that’s often a short-sighted mistake in this format.
Reactive: This means you desire the player but the cost has to make sense for your short- or long-term strategy.
Keep Them Honest: This is a bid that is not designed to win, but might surprisingly land a player if your opponents are distracted by other talent available or unexpectedly passive that week. I often compare notes with other experienced guillotine-style players and we’re surprised at how often the Keep Them Honest bids actually win (this is also a portable strategy for regular season-long leagues; you never know when strange market behavior will come about).
When a first-round pick hits the waiver wire: Something in the $250-300 range is likely the target range for a no-doubt first-round player. While that won’t necessarily be high enough to win, that’s probably my theoretical max for a first-round talent this early in the year, but ultimately you have to make the call that’s right for you.
Finally, understand that the FAB recommendations are with the assumption that you won’t be making offers for every available player.
10 most common players on eliminated teams
1. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys (18% of eliminated teams)
First-half injuries are a fantasy killer, and that’s what felled Lamb in Week 3. He’s expected to miss 2-4 weeks with his high ankle sprain, and this format is not friendly for wait-for-it commodities. Thus, my offers might be lower than you expected.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$150 proactive
-
$80-100 reactive
-
$45 keep them honest
2. Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals (17%)
Jake Browning had fantasy-fun moments back in 2023, but he was awful in his starting debut against Minnesota last week. Cincinnati’s immediate schedule is a nightmare: at Denver, vs. Detroit and at Green Bay.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$65-75 proactive
-
$40 reactive
-
$25 keep them honest
3. Malik Nabers, WR, Giants (16%)
Shrewd Kansas City game-planning and poor Russell Wilson play sunk Nabers in Week 3. The upcoming schedule is difficult, but maybe a shift to rookie QB Jaxson Dart could get Nabers going.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$90-110 proactive
-
$65 reactive
-
$35 keep them honest
4. Chase Brown, RB, Bengals (16%)
The Cincinnati offensive line has been a mess through three weeks. Still, Brown is a rare bell cow, and we can’t unsee how good he was last year.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$90-110 proactive
-
$65 reactive
-
$35 keep them honest
5. Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders (15%)
Marcus Mariota did a nifty Daniels imitation, checking in as the QB6 last week. Washington is still calling Daniels day-to-day; he might be able to play against Atlanta in Week 4.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$65-75 proactive
-
$40 reactive
-
$20 keep them honest
6. Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens (15%)
After two weeks as a target hog, he was largely ignored in Week 3. Lanes won’t be easy to find against Kansas City and Houston the next two weeks.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$55-60 proactive
-
$30 reactive
-
$15 keep them honest
7. Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles (12%)
Even with the Eagles trailing most of Sunday, Barkley still got to 22 touches. He gets Tampa Bay this week, and two revenge games against the Giants aren’t far off (Week 6, Week 8).
FAB Recommendation:
-
$250-300 proactive
-
$175 reactive
-
$90-110 keep them honest
8. Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers (12%)
He’s not playing that poorly, but Quentin Johnston has stepped forward and Keenan Allen is spry at age 33. Eventually positive regression will kick in for McConkey, but the target-hog dreams we had this summer might be dead now.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$65 proactive
-
$35 reactive
-
$20 keep them honest
9. James Conner, RB, Cardinals (12%)
The running back position was relatively injury-free in 2024, but we all knew that was probably a one-year outlier. Conner went down in Week 3 and is out for the season. Understudy Trey Benson is a screaming target, an RB2 at minimum and a possible bell cow.
FAB Recommendation for Benson if available:
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$85-100 proactive
-
$60 reactive
-
$35 keep them honest
10. RJ Harvey, RB, Broncos (12%)
Wait-for-it picks are not friendly for this format. J.K. Dobbins has a running success rate of 53.7%, while Harvey lags at 30.8%. There’s no incentive for the Broncos to make a major shift right now.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$35 proactive
-
$15 reactive
-
$1-3 keep them honest
