I’m back with something other than a film review! This is a new weekly feature where I’ll break down the Eagles’ upcoming opponent strictly through the film. There are plenty of stat-heavy previews out there already. This isn’t one of them. Instead, I’ve watched the most recent games of the opponents with a focus on specific areas: deep passes, explosive runs, touchdowns, turnovers, and sacks. Think of it less as a prediction piece and more as a scouting report. Each week, I’ll publish two articles on the opponent’s offense and defense to give a picture of what the Eagles will be up against.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense
Deep Passes
The film shows Baker Mayfield firing verticals into tight coverage. He is aggressive. Some of his throws this year have been simply outstanding.
He’s more than willing to take shots, and when safeties don’t gain depth, he’ll throw it straight over their heads. Expect deep posts, corners, and slot fades. If the Eagles’ safeties try to creep up and jump the intermediate routes, I can almost promise you that Mayfield will throw it over them. He’s looking for it all the time, and the offense is designed to have these shots available.
He’ll even take shots from empty — pump-faking underneath to draw the safety before ripping it over the top. You don’t see many concepts like this out of Empty! It’s high-variance football. Mayfield delivers some absolute dimes, but there are just as many misses. He’s a little bit hit or miss. The highs are as good as it gets through. Not many teams do this from Empty!
This offense is built on aggression. Josh Grizzard’s philosophy means he’s less interested in sequencing and layering concepts like Liam Coen did and more focused on creating matchups. That shows up in heavy doses of 3×1 and 4×1 formations, where the goal is to isolate a receiver. When Mike Evans was healthy, he was the target; now those looks are being funneled to Emeka Egbuka. A lot of their passing plays look identical. They run 11 personnel 3×1 sets and make everything look the same.
The Eagles’ defense plays plenty of zone under Vic Fangio, and that’s exactly what Tampa will try to stress. Keep an eye on tendency breakers: their Week 1 game-winner came when Mayfield faked a quick throw he had hit earlier, then threw a post over the top. They run a lot of post/crossing routes and will then run corner routes to mix it up and catch the defense off guard.
Explosive Runs
The Buccaneers’ run game is a strange mix. On paper, they run at one of the higher rates in the league, but half of their explosive gains come from Mayfield scrambling. He’s already ripped off significant gains on 3rd downs, including a 33-yarder to seal a win. When defenses sell out with upfield rush, he punishes them by escaping. He does not want to check it down, so if no one’s open or the defense sends pressure, he will get out of there quickly. The Eagles’ rush lane integrity MUST be better than it was against Patrick Mahomes in week 2, or Mayfield will punish them.
As for the backs, Bucky Irving has shown flashes but is averaging just over 3 YPC. His best work comes when Grizzard uses motion and screens to hold edges, then pairs it with gap concepts like pin-and-pull. That was the blueprint against Houston’s penetrating front, and we might see something similar if the Eagles try to get upfield quickly. Irving is slippery in space, less so between the tackles. He’s useful in the screen game and can make people in space, but I don’t think he’s a between-the-tackles hammer. The run game hasn’t been great this year.
The interesting wrinkle is how disconnected the run and pass games feel. Their explosive runs often come from under-center 12 personnel, with tight ends even being used as fullbacks! Against a team like the Eagles, who struggled with the Rams’ under-center runs last week, this could be a potential pivot point.
However, the pass game lives in shotgun 11 personnel. Compared to Sean McVay’s offense, who marry the run and pass game together perfectly, I didn’t see that this week.
Touchdowns
The Red Zone offense will have to evolve without Evans. He is their go-to guy in this area of the field. They still want iso slants and fades, but those looks will fall to Egbuka or Goodwin (if he’s healthy enough to go). Grizzard also schemes “easy” touchdowns with play-action boots and screens, especially targeting the flats when linebackers trigger downhill quickly. This is an area the run and pass game marry together better.
What’s different this year is Mayfield’s willingness to throw more “my guy beats your guy” throws. In the Red Zone, he will give his guys a chance.
Turnovers
Mayfield hasn’t thrown a pick through three games, but that feels more like luck than reality. He’s already had a dropped interception, a handful of overthrows, and his ball security is shaky. As I said earlier, he’s streaky: the highs are incredibly high, but when the accuracy fades or he presses, it gets messy. He has a few misses on film this year, despite being excellent. There was one instance I saw where it absolutely should have been caught when it forced the defense into double coverage, but it was dropped.
The film shows him at his best when the first read is there. When it’s not, he’s liable to scramble or force a throw late. Against a defense with a strong interior rush like the Eagles, those moments can turn into fumbles or (hopefully!) gift-wrapped interceptions.
Sacks
Protection is the biggest question about this offense. The right side of the line has been a revolving door with injuries to Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke. Tristan Wirfs’ return at LT is massive, and Graham Barton sliding back to center should help. But outside of Wirfs, this line is vulnerable.
Mayfield’s style makes it worse. He doesn’t want to throw it away or take the short stuff on third down. He’ll stand tall, try to extend, and take the hit. That’s why nearly all his sacks have come on third down, when he refuses to settle.
The Eagles must rush with discipline, as Mayfield loves to climb and escape up the middle. However, if they win on the edges and collapse the pocket, the sacks will come. And with Mayfield, sacks often bring the bonus of a turnover chance. He has fumbled on a few sacks already this year, as he is focused on getting upfield quickly. Again, it all goes back to his aggressiveness.
Overall
The Eagles should have the upper hand up front as their interior rush can overwhelm Tampa’s patched-together offensive line. Still, the possible return of Tristan Wirfs could be a key factor in stabilizing the protection. Without Mike Evans, even if Chris Godwin plays on a limited basis, we should have enough on the outside to match up. The only real concern is Emeka Egbuka, who looks every bit the part of a rising star and can punish any lapse in coverage. And, of course, Baker Mayfield has those drives and moments where he is unstoppable. I don’t want the ball in his hands with 2 minutes left, and the Buccaneers down 4. That scares me!
That wraps up this week’s look at the Buccaneers’ offense. I’ve wanted to do something like this for a while, so shoutout to BGN for allowing me to do this! Feedback and thoughts on the style are always welcome, as this is something new. If you’d like to see the raw film work that goes into these breakdowns, I post uncut video sessions over on my Patreon here.
