The Wisconsin Badgers are idle in Week 5 of the college football season. The team is 2-2 through the first four weeks, with two wins over low-level competition, a blowout road loss to Alabama and a recent home loss to Maryland.

The Badgers are far from where many expected them to be entering the season. Most early-season predictions forecast a 3-1 record entering the bye week with three decisive wins and a well-contested loss to the Crimson Tide. Instead, Wisconsin began with unconvincing wins over Miami (Ohio) and Middle Tennessee, respectively, before decisive losses to Alabama and an upstart Maryland team.

Wisconsin’s full-year expectations were already tempered, given the team’s gauntlet schedule. Those expectations have shifted dramatically after the first four weeks of the year; ESPN’s Football Power Index now projects a 4-8 finish, plus gives the Badgers just a 7.4% chance to reach a bowl game.

The Badgers, which are now No. 56 nationally in the FPI, exit their bye week with games against Michigan (FPI’s No. 12 team), Iowa (No. 32), Ohio State (No. 2) and Oregon (No. 1). They are then idle again on Nov. 1 before a closing stretch of games against Washington (No. 23), Indiana (No. 6), Illinois (No. 38) and Minnesota (No. 59).

Wisconsin fans, national analysts and rating metrics all seem to agree on the team’s rest-of-season outlook. As things stand, the team has less than a 10% chance to win four of those challenging eight remaining games.

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This article originally appeared on Badgers Wire: Wisconsin football updated bye-week bowl eligibility odds per ESPN FPI