Michigan football was on bye this past week, but several of its upcoming 2025 opponents were in action on Saturday, with varying results.

The Wolverines‘ next opponent, Wisconsin, was also off, but USC lost at Illinois, Washington lost to fellow future opponent Ohio State, and Northwestern slightly edged UCLA. With more data points, ESPN updated its win probabilities for each game, and the maize and blue increased their chances almost across the board.

ESPN FPI looks forward and gives something of an advanced analytic projection of who will win each game. The Wolverines are coming off a bye week and will face Wisconsin next Saturday, and ESPN has projections for each game in terms of the chances that Michigan has to win each.

Here’s how it plays out:

Oct. 4 – Wisconsin (home)

Michigan’s chances to win: 89.1% (up since last week)

Last matchup: Win at Wisconsin, 2021

Oct. 11 – USC (away)

Michigan’s chances to win: 33.5% (up since last week)

Last matchup: Win in Ann Arbor, 2024

Oct. 18 – Washington (home)

Michigan’s chances to win: 79.6% (up since last week)

Last matchup: Loss at Washington, 2024

Oct. 25 – MSU (away)

Michigan’s chances to win: 85.7% (up since last week)

Last matchup: Win in Ann Arbor, 2024

Nov. 1 – Purdue (home)

Michigan’s chances to win: 94% (down since last week)

Last matchup: Win in Ann Arbor, 2023

Nov. 15 – Northwestern (away)

Michigan’s chances to win: 92.7% (up since last week)

Last matchup: Win in Ann Arbor, 2024

Nov. 22 – Maryland (away)

Michigan’s chances to win: 79.6% (up since last week)

Last matchup: Win at Maryland, 2023

Nov. 29 – Ohio State (home)

Michigan’s chances to win: 39.9% (down since last week)

Last matchup: Win at Ohio State, 2024

Conclusion

To take these results on their face, that would make Michigan 9-3, with a split in the rivalry matchups. Michigan would be 4-2 on the road and 5-1 at home.

This article originally appeared on Wolverines Wire: Michigan football sees ESPN FPI shifts after Big Ten Week 5 results