Michigan State football is coming off back-to-back losses while UCLA is coming to East Lansing, Mich. with some momentum following an upset of Penn State. So how does that effect ESPN’s SP+ algorithm? Well, not that much actually.
Bill Connelly of ESPN released his weekly SP+ predictions for the upcoming week of games, and Michigan State is expected to win this week comfortably based on his model. SP+ has Michigan State winning this game by the final score of 32-20 on Saturday afternoon. This is a notable predicted outcome, as the Spartans are listed as a 7-point favorite over the Bruins, so Connelly’s model likes the Spartans to cover the spread by a wide margin.
The Spartans come into this game with a 3-2 overall record and 0-2 mark in Big Ten play. Michigan State has lost its last two games at USC and Nebraska, and is desperate need of a win this week over UCLA.
The Bruins have already fired their coach and were winless before stunning Penn State this past weekend. That win moved UCLA to 1-4 overall and 1-1 in Big Ten play.
My Thoughts on SP+ Prediction
I’m honestly surprised to see SP+ like Michigan State to win this game in convincing fashion. The model hasn’t be high on Michigan State all season long, and it’s easy to adjust things quite a bit after UCLA picked up that massive win last week. But, models like this also don’t radically change off one outcome, so that’s ultimately what explains why Michigan State is projected to win by double-digits here.
Complete SP+ Predictions for Week 7
Click on the post below to see the complete breakdown of every Football Bowl Subdivision game that SP+ has predicted the scores for this upcoming week:
WEEK 7 SP+ PICKS
Ducks 28, Hoosiers 22
OU 24, Texas 17 (no injury adjustment!)
Mizzou 26, Bama 24!
Buckeyes 31, Illini 19
A&M 28, Florida 18
Georgia 26, Auburn 21
USC 29, Michigan 25
FSU 27, Pitt 23
Irish 37, NC St 19
BYU 24, Arizona 21https://t.co/RI0t2sg4cJpic.twitter.com/FBo2PyQO3s— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 6, 2025
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This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: ESPN SP+ ratings system predicts final score for MSU-UCLA matchup
