CHICAGO – The Milwaukee Brewers have listed their favorite pitcher this time of year to start Game 4 against the Chicago Cubs: To Be Announced.
Following a 4-3 loss at Wrigley Field in Game 3 on Oct. 8 to extend the best-of-five National League Division Series, Brewers manager Pat Murphy didn’t reveal his scheduled starter for the following evening, saying instead that the team hasn’t decided yet.
Here’s a look at who the options are, and the pros and cons to each one.
Freddy Peralta
This option is the one that jumps off the page the most. Peralta is Milwaukee’s ace, coming off not only his best year as a big-leaguer but also, most recently, a strong 5 ⅔ innings in a Game 1 win against the Cubs.
If the objective is to put the Cubs away before they get a chance to send the series back to Milwaukee for a winner-take-all Game 5, why mess around and give the ball to anyone but your best starter?
Peralta would be taking the mound on four days’ rest, something he did 12 times this year.
It may seem like the obvious move, but there are some reasonable counters to pitching Peralta in Game 4.
Chief among those might be that if the Brewers’ bullpen has been mostly lights-out in this series. Save for a Nico Hoerner in Game 1 against Jared Koenig, the only runs allowed by the Brewers have been by starters (though Aaron Ashby, being used as an opener, did give up a three-spot in the first inning of Game 2). They could quite easily piece together a pitching plan for Game 4 with Ashby, Koenig, Jacob Misiorowski, Nick Mears, Chad Patrick, Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe.
It’s also quite worth noting that the Brewers have made a concerted effort this season to give their starters five days rest (or more) as much as possible.
While Peralta’s surface numbers on four days rest were better this year (a 2.59 ERA compared to 2.65 on five days’), everything else indicates he actually pitched much better with greater rest. In 17 starts with exactly five days between outings, he owned a 0.982 WHIP and 3.41 strikeout-to-walk ratio; in the four times he went after six days or more off, he had a 0.851 WHIP and 4.17 K-to-BB.
Plus, saving Peralta for a potential Game 5 would also mean he could pitch Game 1 of the National League Championship Series should the Brewers win at Wrigley in Game 4.
Add in the difference between his home (1.77 ERA, .560 OPS against) numbers and his road ones (3.71, .649) and the decision may not be so obvious anymore.
Aaron Ashby
Might the Brewers go back to the Game 2 well and start Ashby?
The left-hander was lights-out this season before his recent hiccup, which featured a Seiya Suzuki three-run homer as well as allowing five of the 10 hitters he faced to reach. If you’re looking for a strong way to start the game, the numbers would still say Ashby would be a solid choice.
The tactic also allows them to dictate matchups better from the jump, from likely keeping Michael Busch out of the lineup because the Cubs prefer to start Justin Turner at first base against southpaws, to mixing and matching in leverage spots early depending on who’s due up.
Robert Gasser
The only members of the playoff roster to not see the field yet are Gasser and backup catcher Danny Jansen.
That doesn’t exactly bode well for Gasser’s chances of being pegged to start a game in the same hostile environment that just gave another inexperienced pitcher, Quinn Priester, fits. But if the Brewers would rather save Ashby for a selected spot later, Gasser could give them some of the matchups they want early, including potentially forcing Busch on the bench for multiple at-bats, and has the potential for a bit of length.
Jacob Misiorowski
Is this crazy? It seems crazy. Then again, so did throwing him into the fire in Game 2 with the score tied and Chicago’s best hitters due up.
Misiorowski looked like the June version of himself in that outing, throwing three scoreless with four strikeouts. Having someone come out throwing 103 mph sure is tantalizing, too.
Ultimately, though, the downside to the equation may win out. Not only is there always the risk Misiorowski can’t find the zone early and it gives the Cubs yet another early lead, but the rookie would be pitching on only two days’ rest after throwing 59 pitches. Given the force he puts upon his body with his full-octane delivery and velocity, it may be prudent to give Misiorowski more time.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Brewers not announcing Game 4 starter yet. Here are the options.
