Lions vs Chiefs: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Why I think the Lions will win

Jared Goff leads the NFL’s best offense into the matchup against a Chiefs defense that is an odd nut to crack. The Chiefs aren’t really bad at anything statistically, but they’re also outside the top 10 in just about every defensive metric. Kansas City has a decidedly average defense:

Scoring: 13th

Yards per game: 13th

3rd down conversions: 12th

Red zone scoring D: 16th

Sack percentage: 10th

QB Rating allowed: 13th

Opposing yards per carry: 28th

It’s that last one, stopping (err, not stopping) the run, where Detroit has a serious path to victory to walk in Kansas City. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are an elite combo at running back, capable of churning out tough yards but also breaking off explosive plays. The Lions can strike from anywhere, anytime on the ground, which keeps defenses from being more focused on Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams et al in the passing game.

This Detroit offense has lit up better defenses than what they’ll see in Kansas City. That’s not meant to disrespect a Chiefs D that has some pretty impressive and capable talent; Detroit is simply that good. Not having Taylor Decker at left tackle is a definite challenge, however, but the Lions have weathered that storm before. Goff will need to be a little quicker on the trigger, something he’s shown he can do–ask the Browns and Myles Garrett.

On a more intangible level, there’s not going to be any fear for these Lions heading into Kansas City. Two seasons ago, the Dan Campbell Lions took their game to a new and higher level by winning in this stadium in primetime on opening weekend. This is a seasoned team that isn’t fazed by a high-stakes game against a strong opponent. It’s what Campbell wants, what he preaches. The moment won’t be too big for them, just as it wasn’t in Baltimore, or in Cincinnati a week ago. They’ve seen how playing to the standards of Detroit Lions football makes the opponent, the location, the hype all irrelevant.

What worries me about the Chiefs

The Chiefs throw early and often. Kansas City ranks 8th in pass play percentage at a little over 60 percent. By way of comparison, the Lions throw the ball less frequently than all but two other teams (Seattle and Buffalo), just topping the 50 percent mark.

Some of their passing propensity comes from how their offensive line is constructed. They’re largely a group of pass protection specialists, notably right tackle Jawaan Taylor and right guard Trey Smith. Their job is to keep Mahomes upright and happy, not clearing holes for Isiah Pacheco or Kareem Hunt.

The Chiefs do actually run the ball decently well, though that comes with a big asterisk. Their 4.8 yards per carry is a top-10 figure, but much of that is Mahomes, who leads the Chiefs in rushing yards at 190. Take away his 6.8 YPC and the Chiefs’ top three RBs (Kareen Hunt, Isiah Pacheco, Brashard Smith) average just 3.9, a figure that would tie them with the Tennessee Titans for 25th. And that’s why Mahomes is an MVP front-runner, and why the depleted Lions defense is in for a serious challenge.

I can envision the Chiefs throwing caution to the wind and relying on a heavy aerial attack against the Lions. Negate Detroit’s sizeable advantage at LB, take their chances with Mahomes creating a big play with his arm or his legs in spite of the Lions strong pass rush. They’re comfortable playing on the edge of that knife in a way that’s disconcerting even if the Lions defense was at full strength. And it’s not.

The Lions will be without their regular starting CBs, D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold. They’ll be without key reserve Khalil Dorsey, who would have been the No. 3 outside CB in this game, too. Avonte Maddox was in line to start in the slot with Amik Robertson pushed outside, but he’s now out too.

Now factor in the safety injuries. Yes, plural. Both Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch are listed as questionable. I expect both to play, but I’m not expecting either to be at full speed or power. We witnessed what that can look like in the second half in Cincinnati, when Arnold was out and Branch wasn’t his usual self. Jake Browning got hot and lit up the Lions for three TD passes after a first half that Browning was so bad the Bengals traded for the rotting carcass of Joe Flacco immediately after the game.

When healthy, this Lions defense matches up very well with the Chiefs. But the biggest playmakers, Branch and Joseph, are not close to healthy. It showed in the second half last Sunday, and Patrick Mahomes is a heck of a lot scarier than Jake Browning. The Chiefs have a lot of speed on the outside and in the slot, too. Maddox would have been a nice veteran foil as a fill-in, but that’s not in the cards.

Final score prediction

All week, I genuinely thought the Lions would win this game. They’re the better overall team–again, zero disrespect intended for the three-time reigning AFC champs with that statement. This is a great Detroit unit. But…

This is not a full-strength Detroit unit. Losing Decker and his backup LT, Giovanni Manu, was the straw that broke my camel’s back. Maybe if the secondary was ready to rock, I’d get past the issues on the Lions O-line. But…

This is a really bad opponent to face shorthanded on the back end of the defense. I think Jack Campbell, Aidan Hutchinson and the front seven will have some great moments. I’m simply more worried that Patrick Mahomes will have one or two more of those great moments.