We’ve reached the middle stretch of the college football season — the point where fatigue sets in, travel starts to matter and the betting market tends to overcorrect. Lines are tighter, narratives are louder and overreactions from last week’s chaos often create opportunity.

Week 8 brings a trio of intriguing matchups that test perception versus reality: Oregon’s cross-country trip after a loss, a total in Penn State-Iowa that’s dropped nearly 10 points since summer, and a marquee SEC showdown where Georgia’s aura continues to fade. 

Let’s dive into the numbers and find where the value lies for Week 8.

(Odds courtesy of BetMGM.)

No. 8 Oregon (-17.5, 60) at Rutgers

One of the most fascinating wrinkles in this new conference era is how coast-to-coast travel impacts performance. 

Oregon, fresh off a hard-fought home loss, now flies across the country to face Rutgers — a spot many market makers see as a trap. But that assumption may be overstated.

Rutgers just made its own cross-country trip to face Washington and now has to turn around and prepare for one of the fastest teams in the nation. Physically and mentally, that’s a brutal turnaround. The tape doesn’t lie: Rutgers has struggled against any opponent with real offensive life. Washington QB Desmond Williams diced them for 400 yards through the air and 140 on the ground, exposing a defense that can’t handle tempo or dynamic athletes in space.

Offensively, Rutgers’ short-yardage, yards-after-catch system lacks the explosiveness to hang with Oregon’s defensive speed. The Ducks simply outclass Rutgers at every position group. With the line shaded toward travel concerns, the talent edge here is too strong to ignore.

Bet: Oregon -17

Penn State at Iowa (-3.5, 38.5)

I spotlighted this matchup in my preseason Games of the Year back in August — taking the under 46.5 based on Iowa’s stagnant offense and skepticism about Penn State’s explosiveness. Fast forward to midseason, and this total has plummeted nearly 10 points following chaos in Happy Valley.

Head coach James Franklin is out after a $50 million buyout, and starting QB Drew Allar is done for the season with an injury. That’s driven a full-scale market correction — and a potential overreaction. 

While Franklin’s exit is significant, Penn State’s offense isn’t bare. Allar was an NFL-caliber passer, but not a dynamic playmaker so far this season. The Nittany Lions still have enough perimeter talent to challenge an Iowa defense that’s been soft against tempo. This feels like a “prove-it” moment for Penn State, a chance for a backup QB to ignite a reset under the bright lights. 

The total has fallen too far, too fast — and given the current discount, buying back on the over offers sneaky value, especially for those who grabbed the preseason under.

Bet: Penn State vs. Iowa over 37.5 (middle opportunity for preseason position)

No. 5 Ole Miss at No. 9 Georgia (-7, 54.5)

Both Ole Miss and Georgia survived scares last weekend, but the context around those games matters. The Rebels barely escaped Washington State, while Georgia needed every inch to outlast Auburn in a penalty-laden slugfest.

Lane Kiffin’s teams have long been unpredictable — uninterested in soft non-conference games but built to rise for the marquee spots. That’s the setup here. Ole Miss’ offense is still as balanced and dangerous as any in the SEC, and the Rebels’ defensive inconsistencies tend to stabilize when the spotlight hits. 

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Georgia, meanwhile, continues to look mortal. Penalties, offensive lulls and reliance on chunk plays have become defining traits. Auburn’s 11 penalties masked just how competitive that matchup really was. For bettors, this is a classic “buy low” opportunity — the Rebels catching more than a touchdown against a Georgia team that hasn’t looked elite for four quarters in weeks.

Bet: Ole Miss +7

Week 7 betting recap

Overall Week 7 record: 2-4 (1-2 on early article plays)