How are World Cup favourites shaping up – and who will win?

Mikel Oyarzabal blows a kiss to the fans as Spain celebrate
Spain could well be the team to beat at the 2026 World Cup [Getty Images]

England have booked their place at the 2026 World Cup and so attention turns to how they might fare in North America next summer – and how some of their rivals are looking.

Thomas Tuchel’s contract runs to the end of the tournament and the feeling has been that England have gone all out to get to this point.

Yet Tuchel believes England will be “underdogs” at the World Cup “because we haven’t won it for decades”.

Argentina and Brazil, who have both qualified, will hope the location gives them a boost.

Seven of the eight World Cups set in the Americas have been won by a South American team.

And 10 of the 11 World Cups held in Europe have been won by European teams.

BBC Sport looks at how some of the World Cup favourites are shaping up.

Spain

Spain are the early bookmakers’ favourites to win the World Cup – and with good reason.

They were deserved winners at Euro 2024, beating England in the final.

And in teenage Barcelona winger Lamine Yamal they have one of the best players in the world.

Not counting a penalty shootout defeat in June’s Nations League final against Portugal, they have not lost a competitive game since facing Scotland in March 2023.

They have not yet qualified although sit top of Group E on maximum points.

France

Jean-Philippe Mateta jumps into the air by the corner flag, smiling
France top their qualifying group, although Ukraine and Iceland can still catch them [Getty Images]

France, still managed by Didier Deschamps – who took charge in 2012 but will step down after the tournament – are aiming to reach their third World Cup final in a row.

They beat Croatia in 2018 before losing to Argentina on penalties after a 3-3 draw in probably the greatest ever final in 2022.

Key to their hopes will be Kylian Mbappe, who has hit 17 goals in 13 matches for Real Madrid and France this season.

They top Group D by three points over Ukraine, following Monday’s frustrating 2-2 draw with Iceland.

England

Thomas Tuchel embraces Declan Rice
England will hope Thomas Tuchel can do what only Alf Ramsey has done before and lead the Three Lions to World Cup victory [Getty Images]

There is a real hope this could be England’s year after several near misses under Gareth Southgate.

The fact the Football Association appointed the highly-decorated German on a deal just for this tournament shows how focused they are on their bid to win it.

And fortunately for Tuchel, he has a fully-firing Harry Kane. The 32-year-old has bagged 20 goals in 11 matches for Bayern Munich and England.

England are the only European team who have won nine of their past 10 games, and the first to qualify for the tournament next summer.

Brazil

Carlo Ancelotti
Carlo Ancelotti has won it all at club level – will he now win football’s ultimate prize? [Getty Images]

Brazil used to be the country most synonymous with World Cup glory, lifting their fifth trophy in 2002.

But they have not reached any of the five finals since then.

And so they made a bold move and brought in serial winner Carlo Ancelotti as their first foreign head coach since 1965.

He took over in May after Dorival Junior was sacked following a 4-1 loss to arch-rivals Argentina in World Cup qualifying.

Brazil ended up qualifying in fifth place in the South American group, with six defeats from 18 games, so they are far from flying.

Argentina

Lionel Messi waves from the stands
Lionel Messi was rested for Argentina’s friendly against Venezuela this month [Getty Images]

Argentina are the defending champions, beating France on penalties in the last World Cup final in Qatar.

And they won the South American qualifying group by some way, finishing nine points above second-placed Ecuador.

All-time footballing great Lionel Messi has not yet committed to playing in the World Cup – but it would be a major surprise if he did not.

However, the 38-year-old was rested for a recent friendly because boss Lionel Scaloni wanted to see Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez play together.

Portugal

Caoimhin Kelleher celebrates saving Cristiano Ronaldo penalty
Cristiano Ronaldo had a penalty saved by Caoimhin Kelleher this month – but it did not stop Portugal winning [Getty Images]

Portugal are yet to qualify for the World Cup but will be confident of their chances as they are running away with Group F, despite drawing with Hungary on Tuesday.

There was a feeling at Euro 2024 that national great Cristiano Ronaldo, the all-time leading goalscorer in international football, was holding them back.

But since then Ronaldo – who will be 41 by next summer – has scored 13 goals in 13 games for Portugal.

Portugal look in good shape and won the Nations League final on penalties against Spain in the summer.

Germany

Nick Woltemade scores v Northern Ireland
Germany’s narrow win over Northern Ireland kept them top of their group [Getty Images]

Germany will have to drastically improve on recent major tournaments if they are to challenge in North America.

Since winning the 2014 World Cup they have gone out in the group stage twice and failed to get beyond the quarter-finals of a European Championship.

And they are making hard work of even reaching the World Cup, sitting above Slovakia only on goal difference in Group A.

They lost last month to Slovakia in only their fourth World Cup qualifying defeat.

The Netherlands

Memphis Depay
Memphis Depay has been involved in 89 goals for the Netherlands, more than anyone else [Getty Images]

The Netherlands are in good form and have only lost once since England beat them in the Euro 2024 semi-final.

In qualifying they have 16 points from six games – with 22 goals scored and only three conceded.

In this qualifying campaign, Memphis Depay has become the country’s all-time leading goalscorer (54) and assist producer (35).

Italy

Italy celebrate
Italy struggle to qualify for World Cups these days, let alone win them [Getty Images]

It feels customary to put Italy in an article on World Cup favourites – but the data does not back it up.

Since winning the 2006 World Cup they have failed to play in one single knockout game.

They exited the groups in 2010 and 2014 and then failed to even reach the next two World Cups.

And that could yet be three in a row as they sit three points behind Group I leaders Norway and may well need the play-offs.

In Euros they fare better and beat England in the final in 2021.

Recent Posts

editors picks

Top Reviews