Its getting late early in the race for the SEC Championship game and a berth in the college football playoff as No. 6 Alabama (5-1) hosts No. 11 Tennessee (5-1).

This is the 108th meeting dating back to 1901 of the series known as the “Third Saturday in October”. This year’s matchup is nearly identical to their tilt last season. As they were last season, both schools are 5-1 entering the matchup. Last season Alabama was No. 7 in the nation while Tennessee was No. 11. The Vols won last year in Knoxville, 24-17.

Tennessee has lost 10 straight at Alabama. The Volunteers last win in Tuscaloosa was back in 2003. They outlasted the Tide 51-43 in 5 overtimes.

Tennessee won their third in a row last week holding on late against Arkansas for a 34-31 win. Alabama has won five straight since opening the season with a loss to Florida State. This game marks the end of a four-game stretch for the Tide against ranked opponents.

Lets dive deeper into the matchup and look at both schools on both sides of the ball and see what the numbers tell us.

Game Details and How to watch No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama

• Date: Saturday, October 18, 2025
• Time: 7:30PM Eastern
• Site: Bryant-Denny Stadium
• City: Tuscaloosa, AL
• TV/Streaming: ABC

Game Odds for No. 11 Tennessee vs. No. 6 Alabama

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Alabama Crimson Tide (-305), Tennessee Volunteers (+245)
• Spread: Alabama -8.5 (-110)
• Total: 58.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Alabama Crimson Tide

Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer
2025 Record: 5-1
Offense Ranking: 16
Defense Ranking: 13
Strength of Schedule: 3

The 2025 Alabama Crimson Tide have started 5–1 (3–0 SEC) under Kalen DeBoer, ranking 13th in SP+ with a balanced profile fielding the 16th rate offensive and 13th overall defensive in FBS. Offensively, Ryan Grubb’s system has generated a 45.4% success rate (45th) and 0.23 EPA/play (20th) behind a surgical passing attack that completes 71% of attempts (12th) and averages 10.9 adjusted net yards per attempt (21st). While the rushing game remains a work in progress (39.7% success rate, 108th), Alabama’s efficiency on scoring drives (5.10 points per trip, 27th) and elite turnover differential (+9, 2nd nationally) have fueled their victories against top-tier competition. Defensively, Kane Wommack’s unit has allowed just 5.38 yards per play (61st) but ranks Top 15 in havoc rate (17.4%), relying on disciplined coverage and opportunistic playmaking to keep the Tide firmly in the CFP race.

The Alabama Crimson Tide Offense

Alabama’s offense under coordinator Ryan Grubb ranks 16th nationally in SP+, powered by an electric passing game that offsets a still-developing ground attack. The Crimson Tide average 6.25 yards per play (41st) and 0.23 EPA/play (20th), driven by a 71.0% completion rate (12th) and 10.9 adjusted net yards per attempt (21st). While the rushing unit has struggled with consistency (39.7% success rate, 108th) and limited explosiveness (4.2 yards per rush, 117th), Alabama’s efficient third-down execution (50.0%, 19th) and 5.10 points per scoring opportunity (27th) keep drives alive. With one of the nation’s lowest havoc rates allowed (9.2%, 5th) and top-tier passing-down efficiency (37.4% success rate, 18th), the Tide have evolved into a precision-based, pass-first attack that thrives on rhythm and efficiency.

Alabama Player to Watch on Offense: QB Ty Simpson

Quarterback Ty Simpson has been the steady hand guiding Alabama’s offense, completing 70.9% of his passes for 1,678 yards and 16 touchdowns with just one interception across six starts. His efficiency metrics—10.4 adjusted net yards per attempt and a Total QBR of 81.5—underscore his strong command of OC Ryan Grubb’s system. Simpson averages 12.5 yards per completion and a 48.9% success rate, showing the ability to blend short precision with downfield aggression while maintaining composure under pressure (6.0% sack rate). As a runner, he adds opportunistic mobility with 114 yards and 2 rushing scores, providing the requisite precision and dual-threat capability to keep Alabama’s offense running smoothly.

The Alabama Crimson Tide Defense

Alabama’s defense, ranked 13th in SP+, has combined disciplined structure with timely playmaking under coordinator Kane Wommack. The Tide allow just 5.38 yards per play (61st) and a 39.4% success rate (51st), relying on a 17.4% havoc rate (32nd nationally) that’s fueled by active linebackers and ball-hawking defensive backs. Though the run defense has been inconsistent (5.3 yards per carry allowed, 113th), Alabama thrives in coverage, ranking 12th nationally in yards per dropback versus zone (4.8) and holding opponents to a 39.5% passing success rate. Their ability to generate pressure without excessive blitzing, combined with a pristine +9 turnover margin (2nd nationally), has kept opposing offenses from sustaining drives despite a tough early schedule.

Alabama Player to Watch on Defense: S Bray Hubbard

Safety Bray Hubbard has been a revelation, recording 27 tackles, 6 havoc plays, and 3 interceptions across six games. His 81.8% tackle efficiency and ability to trigger downhill in run support (59.3% of tackles vs. run) make him a reliable safety valve in both coverage and pursuit. In coverage, Hubbard has allowed just 36 yards on 9 targets (44.4%) with a 1.7 defensive QBR allowed, which ranks very favorably among the nation’s stingiest safeties. His blend of range, instincts, and playmaking—highlighted by two run stops, a forced fumble—anchors Alabama’s back end in DC Kane Wommack’s defense.

Tennessee Volunteers

Head Coach: Josh Heupel
2025 Record: 5-1
Offense Ranking: 3
Defense Ranking: 28
Strength of Schedule: 27

The 2025 Tennessee Volunteers are off to a 5–1 (2–1 SEC) start, ranking 11th in SP+ behind a Top 5 offense (3rd) and an improving defense (28th). Josh Heupel’s high-tempo attack remains elite, averaging 7.07 yards per play (15th), a 52.0% success rate (11th), and 0.27 EPA/play (10th) while ranking second nationally in pace at 21.5 seconds per snap. Tennessee’s rushing efficiency (5.5 yards per carry, 11th success rate) complements an explosive aerial game generating 8.7 yards per dropback and 11.4 adjusted net yards per attempt (13th). Defensively, DC Tim Banks’ group still gives up big plays (5.10 yards per play, 42nd) but thrives on disruption with a 17.7% havoc rate (29th) and Top 5 sack rate (10.2%), helping the Vols stay squarely in the SEC title and CFP conversation.

The Tennessee Volunteers Offense

Tennessee’s offense under Josh Heupel remains one of the nation’s most dynamic, ranking 3rd in offensive SP+ and averaging 7.07 yards per play (15th nationally) behind a balanced, up-tempo scheme. The Volunteers boast elite efficiency with a 52.0% overall success rate (11th) and 0.27 EPA/play (10th) while operating at the second-fastest pace in the country (21.5 seconds per play). Their rushing attack averages 5.5 yards per carry with a 52.8% rushing success rate (15th), complemented by a lethal passing game producing 8.7 yards per dropback and 11.4 adjusted net yards per attempt (13th). Behind an offensive line that ranks 14th in pressure rate allowed (1.4%), HC Josh Heupel’s potent system continues to overwhelm defenses with tempo, spacing, and vertical efficiency.

Tennessee Player to Watch on Offense: QB Joey Aguilar

Quarterback Joey Aguilar has been the clear leader of the offense, throwing for 1,680 yards and 14 touchdowns with a 64.8% completion rate through six starts. He’s averaging an impressive 14.2 yards per completion and 9.0 yards per dropback while maintaining a 51.0% success rate despite 5 interceptions. Aguilar’s efficiency is reflected in his 9.7 adjusted net yards per attempt and strong 73.1 Total QBR, ranking him among the most productive passers in his conference. On the ground, he’s added another 135 yards and two touchdowns, showcasing mobility and composure that make him a steady dual-threat presence behind center.

The Tennessee Volunteers Defense

Tennessee’s defense has been opportunistic but inconsistent, ranking 28th in defensive SP+ with flashes of front-seven dominance balanced by vulnerability in coverage. The Volunteers generate havoc at a 17.7% clip (29th nationally), including a Top 5 sack rate of 10.2% and a disruptive 8.9% defensive line havoc rate (8th) that fuels their pressure-heavy approach. However, the unit struggles with efficiency, allowing a 42.8% success rate (96th) and 5.10 yards per play (42nd) while ranking 130th in red-zone touchdown rate (78.3%). While Tim Banks’ group excels at creating negative plays and collapsing pockets, improving consistency on third downs and limiting explosive passes will be key for Tennessee to sustain their playoff hopes.

Tennessee Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Joshua Josephs

Edge Joshua Josephs has emerged as Tennessee’s most consistent pressure maven, leading the defense with 8.0 havoc plays, 4.0 sacks, and 3.5 tackles for loss through six games. He has generated 14 pressures on 78 pass rushes (17.9%) with a quick 2.68-second average time to first pressure, showing both burst and closing speed off the edge. Josephs has also forced three fumbles and contributed four run stops, pairing his explosiveness with discipline in the run game. His all-around disruption has made him the cornerstone of the Volunteers’ front seven and a key driver of their Top 5 national sack rate.

No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Tennessee team stats, betting trends

• Alabama has won 3 straight home games against Tennessee
• Alabama has covered the spread in its last 3 home games against teams with winning records
• Game Totals involving Alabama are 4-2 to the OVER this season
• Game Totals involving Tennessee are 5-1 to the OVER this season

Rotoworld Best Bets

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Miles Kitselman OVER 22.5 yards receiving

Tennessee has thrown to outside receivers 46% of the time, which ranks 15th-most in FBS. They rarely throw outlets/checkdowns to their running backs, ranking 126th in receptions out of the backfield. When QB Joey Aguilar does need a dependable checkdown option, it’s usually TE Miles Kitselman getting the targets as the full-size 6’5/255 tight end has secured at least three passes in four of his last five games and has soared past his 22.5 receiving yards line in all five. With UT likely having to score points at an elevated pace to keep up with Alabama, I like Kitselman to extend his 25+ yards streak to 6 in a row and go Over 22.5 receiving yards

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
 
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Tennessee and Alabama

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Tennessee Volunteers at +7.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 58.5.

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