When Patriots fans sit down to watch the VraBowl Sunday from Tennessee, they should pause, reflect and give thanks.

The Patriots are in first place at 4-2. ESPN gives them a 74% chance of making the playoffs. More than that, stability has replaced the drama that plagued the franchise in recent years.

Some of that thanks should go to the Titans for being short-sighted enough to fire Mike Vrabel. That’ll get most of the attention when Vrabel’s current team faces his old one in Nashville.

But they should thank the football gods for the immense good fortune that has sped up the Patriots’ rebuild. Facing Tennessee is one of many reminders on the Patriots’ schedule this year of how easy it is to get stuck in a cycle that bounces between miserable and mediocre.

Including the Titans, the Patriots’ 2025 schedule includes some of the worst teams in the NFL. If anything can be gleaned from their up-close looks at this run of bad teams, it is just how fortunate New England is. To contend in the NFL, a team needs a really good coach and a really good quarterback. They need more than just that obviously, but those two are essential.

It is hard to get the right coach. It’s extremely hard to get the right quarterback. It takes a Rubik’s Cube level of strategic maneuvering to land both together.

There have been coaches who have failed because they didn’t have the right quarterback. There have been quarterbacks who have failed because they landed in the wrong place with the wrong coach.

The Patriots seem to have found the ideal mix.

Vrabel fits the mold of several of the Boston coaches who have won championships this century. Terry Francona, Bill Belichick, Doc Rivers and Claude Julien were all good coaches in the midst of their second jobs when they won in Boston. Each had clearly learned something from their failures the first time around. That obviously doesn’t mean Vrabel will match their success, but the comparisons are encouraging.

• BETTING: On FanDuel, the over/under for Sunday’s game between the Patriots and the Titans is set at 41.5. Our complete FanDuel Sportsbook review provides an in-depth guide on how to use their site. For all of the best Patriots Week 7 odds, be sure to check out our expert takes.

The Patriots got incredibly lucky hiring Vrabel.

Robert Kraft deserves credit for recognizing that Jerod Mayo wasn’t going to work out. There are a lot of owners who would have stubbornly stuck with Mayo in hopes of not having to admit they’d blown it.

Kraft was decisive. But he was fortunate that Vrabel was still available. In hindsight, the Panthers and the Raiders probably wish they’d pursued Vrabel after the 2023 season and the Falcons might eventually come to that conclusion, too.

There’s a good chance Kraft wouldn’t have made his ill-conceived double-secret succession plan with Mayo if he had known Vrabel was going to be available when Belichick got fired. But the Patriots caught a break when he was still available a year later.

Landing the quarterback is even tougher. Tennessee is a reminder of just how bad it can be. They’ve been futilely chasing a No. 1 guy since Steve McNair retired.

Vince Young and Marcus Mariota and to a lesser extent, Jake Locker were high draft pick flameouts. Ryan Tannehill was a solid free agent, who made them respectable but not really a contender. And Malik Willis, Will Levis, Kerry Collins, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Charlie Whitehurst and Zach Mettenberger are the types of quarterbacks that desperate franchises trot out in hopes of finding bottled lightning.

They’re hardly alone. The Browns, Jets and Giants, all future 2025 Patriots opponents, have had similar stiff parades under center.

Teams have given up on Baker Mayfield too fast or hung onto David Carr too long.

The five years between Tom Brady and Drake Maye only seemed like forever to Patriots fans. That stretch included Cam Newton during COVID, Good Mac Jones, Bad Mac Jones, Zappe Fever.

The Patriots got lucky to have landed Maye too. When they were bad in 2023, the fans were dreaming about Caleb Williams.

New England was lucky, too, that the NFL’s tie-breaking rules for draft order are stupid. The Patriots and the Commanders had the same record and Washington beat New England, 20-17, head-to-head in Foxborough, but somehow, strength of schedule trumps actual results.

The Commanders, whose SOS was worse, got the No. 2 pick and took Jayden Daniels. If the Patriots had selected second, they might have picked Daniels.

And that might have worked out fine. When he’s healthy, Daniels has been really good. But the Patriots wouldn’t trade Maye for him now.

New England would certainly rather have Maye than Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young or Cam Ward, who were each taken first overall. Lawrence was compared to Peyton Manning when he came out of Clemson and the Panthers traded D.J. Moore, two first-round picks and two second-rounders to move up to draft Young.

The Patriots were strangely lucky that Mac Jones imploded quickly, too. After his promising rookie season, Jones figured to have a long leash. If he’d been mediocre instead of awful, first under Matt Patricia and Joe Judge and then Bill O’Brien, the Patriots might have hung with him a little longer and traded away the pick that became Drake Maye. Then who knows?

Instead, they have a coach that fits and a quarterback that appears to be on the path to stardom.

Outtakes from a busy week…

The Pope Troll

As the papal parade rolled down the streets of the Vatican, an American yelled at Pope Leo XIV.

“Go Cubs!” he yelled at the Chicago-native and White Sox-loving pontiff.

According to The Athletic, just because the pope has a direct line to god doesn’t prevent him from chirping in two languages:

“From atop the Popemobile, the Pope didn’t miss a beat in his retort, with the same message delivered in Spanish and English: “Han perdido! They lost!”

A battle for a trip to the World Series and the future of baseball

ESPN’s Jeff Passan argued earlier this week that the the Dodgers-Brewers NLCS could drastically impact the looming labor war in baseball.

“Owners across the game want a salary cap — and if the Dodgers, with their record $500 million-plus payroll, win back-to-back World Series, it will only embolden the league’s push to regulate salaries. The Brewers, consistently a bottom-third payroll team, emerging triumphant would serve as the latest evidence that winners can germinate even in the game’s smallest markets and that the failures of other low-revenue teams have less to do with spending than execution.”

The Dodgers pulled ahead 3-0 on Thursday, which apparently puts the 2027 season at risk.

A good player, a better dad

Send good thoughts to Blackhawks captain Nick Foligno, who is stepping away from an indefinite time period to be with his daughter for her third heart surgery.

Foligno was well-respected in the Bruins dressing room among his teammates and during his stint on the roster. He still has warm feeling for the franchise, the city and Boston Children’s Hospital for the care she has received from their amazing cardiology department.

Real Jeopardy! Clue

Sports clues from actual editions of America’s favorite quiz show. As always, mind the date

CATEGORY: HOCKEY $400

Date: Oct. 6, 2025

One theory on the origin of this Canadian insult word is with the losing team’s task of spraying water to refresh the ice

— Answer below

The Top 5

The Top 5 Candies You Only Have a Halloween

5 — Butterfinger

4 — Almond Snickers

3 — Baby Ruth

2 — $100 Grand

1 — Heath Bars

Today in Boston Sports History

Oct. 17

2004 — Dave Roberts stole second base starting a chain reaction that led to the Red Sox first championship in 86 years.

2017 — Jayson Tatum made his Boston Celtics debut with 14 points and 10 rebounds in a 102-99 loss to LeBron James and the Cavaliers.

Lightning round

• Just over a month until Benoit Blanc returns.
• Penn State’s loss to Northwestern earned James Franklin $50 million in buyout money and Curt Cignetti, $93 million from Indiana, who was afraid Penn State might go after him. Franklin would make a really interesting candidate at UCLA.
• I’m not going to believe the Ravens won’t make the playoffs until they don’t make the playoffs.
• Tim Thomas, Isaiah Thomas and Gabby Thomas are all being honored at The Tradition, the New England Sports Museum’s annual gala. That can’t be a coincidence, can it?
• Mezzi Rigatoni makes the best mac and cheese. Cavatappi is second. Elbows are for amateurs.

Real Jeopardy! Question:

What is a hoser?

Finally…

Happy Dave Roberts Stolen Base Day to all who celebrate.

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