It’s no secret that the 2023 and 2024 USC football seasons under Lincoln Riley were massive disappointments among the USC fan base and not up to the Trojan standard.
It’s also no secret that Riley has dramatically rehabilitated his image in 2025. He has assembled the No. 1 2026 recruiting class in the nation. To make matters better, he has Jayden Maiava and the Trojan offense humming six games into the 2025 season, coaching like the elite offensive guru and generational developer of QB talent the college football world knew him to be in previous years.
But if the 2025 season goes off the rails and the Trojans underperform again in 2026, there’s a real chance that USC could part with Riley. USC’s matchup against Notre Dame this weekend will play a large role in defining how people remember 2025, but will it have a direct effect on Riley’s job security in 2026, bleeding into 2027? We asked our Trojans Wire and UCLA Wire writers for their opinions.
Matt Zemek, Editor
I really do think this 2025 Notre Dame game will set the stage for the level of heat Lincoln Riley will face entering 2026. If he wins this game and finishes 10-2, he probably settles into a groove and recovers his fastball. If he loses, I’m not sure if he will ever get his fastball back. USC will be expected to be a 10-win team for sure in 2026, and if Lincoln loses this Notre Dame game, I’m not sure USC will reach the mountaintop of college football with him at the helm. He could stumble in 2026 and not coach this program in 2027. By then, he needs to have done something big. This Notre Dame game is massive for his tenure at USC.
Adam Bradford, Trojans Wire
Of course, Notre Dame is a massive game, but coaching decisions should never be made off of one game. Lincoln Riley effectively has until the end of 2026 to prove that he can win at USC. Beating Notre Dame Saturday would be a great way to do that, but his job status does not hinge on one singular game. To suggest such would be nothing but clickbait.
Micah Huff, Trojans Wire
I think Riley is good regardless of what happens to end this season. What he does with the 2026 recruiting class will determine whether or not his seat will get truly hot or not. Riley’s reputation alone is keeping him sitting pretty. The win against Michigan definitely helps his case.
Ethan Inman, Trojans Wire
Lincoln Riley’s job status in 2027 has very little to do with this game and everything to do with how he performs in 2026. A 9-3 record would meet preseason expectations for Riley’s fourth season at USC, and if the Trojans drop this one to the fighting Irish, they can afford to stumble once more and still finish at the 9-3 mark. With the No. 1 recruiting class headed into 2026, Riley and Co. will be expected to make the College Football Playoff. That is when the pressure is on to keep his job in 2027.
Ryan Lorenz UCLA Wire
Lincoln Riley has bought himself some time and his status as the head coach of the Trojans most likely won’t change until the end of next season. USC has a 5-1 record and there’s also a top recruiting class coming in, due to Riley. He’s safe for the time being.
Dylan McNeil UCLA Wire
I believe that Saturday’s win over Michigan bought Riley some good grace and that this week’s game against the Fighting Irish won’t have such heightened implications that Riley could lose his job. USC is 5-1 and has a good chance to pick up the road win against Notre Dame, even if they don’t, I expect Riley to remain in place with the Trojans through next year.
This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: USC football coach Lincoln Riley can use a good Notre Dame outcome
