It’s rivalry week for the Spartans, and they’ll have to prove the computers wrong if they’re going to bring Paul Bunyan back home.
Bill O’Connell has released his SP+ score predictions for each of the week nine games, including the Spartans’ upcoming home game against rival Michigan, and let’s just say it’s not looking good for Michigan State. O’Connell’s model has Michigan beating the Spartans for a fourth straight year, with a projected final score of 34-18. This projection from SP+ is not far off from the betting line, which currently sits at Michigan minus-14.5.
Michigan State has dropped four straight games and is potentially playing to save head coach Jonathan Smith’s job this week. The Spartans are 3-4 overall and still searching for their first conference win of the season with an 0-4 mark in league play.
Michigan comes into this game off a nice bounce-back win over Washington this past weekend. The Wolverines are 5-2 overall and 3-1 in Big Ten play this season.
My Thoughts on SP+ Prediction
This prediction from SP+ seems about right, which is not ideal since the SP+ model nearly perfectly pegged the Michigan State-Indiana game this past week. It feels like this is going to be a game where Michigan State will make a few plays throughout to keep them in striking distance, but ultimately the Wolverines are two touchdowns better than the Spartans this year. So, with that being said, I’m in agreement with this prediction from SP+ — even if I hate that it’s this big of a gap and this is where Michigan State football is right now.
Complete SP+ Predictions for Week 9
Click on the post below to see the complete breakdown of every Football Bowl Subdivision game that SP+ has predicted the scores for this upcoming week:
WEEK 9 SP+ PICKS
OU 28, Ole Miss 23
A&M 26, LSU 25
Vandy 28.3, Mizzou 28.1
Auburn 28.4, Arkansas 28.1
KU 32, K-State 26
USF 33, Memphis 28
Indiana 40, UCLA 13
Horns 27, #Clanga 20
ASU 25.5, Houston 24.5Smallest avg SP+ vs spread diff since Wk1.https://t.co/A8CM2IKAX1pic.twitter.com/7h9j3KpOQQ
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 19, 2025
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This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: ESPN SP+ ratings system predicts final score for MSU-UM rivalry matchup
