The initial College Football Playoff committee Top 25 rankings weren’t kind to Vanderbilt football.
The Commodores (7-2, 3-2 SEC) came in at No. 16, matching their ranking in the Coaches Poll and one spot below the AP Poll.
After the end of last season, there was talk that the committee would more heavily be considering strength of schedule, which would help SEC teams after a three-loss Alabama team was the first team out in 2024.
However, SEC teams were not favored in the first ranking over their standing in other polls. Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee were all ranked at or below where they were in the AP and Coaches Polls, but Texas was ranked higher.
Four SEC teams were ranked in the top 10 of the CFP rankings: Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss. Those teams have no games remaining against each other, making it possible for all to win out.
However, No. 11 Texas faces Texas A&M and Georgia and Alabama faces No. 12 Oklahoma.
Here’s what the rankings mean for Vanderbilt’s playoff chances:
How Vanderbilt football can qualify for College Football Playoff
First, Vanderbilt needs to win all three of its remaining games against Kentucky, Auburn and Tennessee. While three three-loss SEC teams got close to the playoff a year ago, the current bracket is not setting up for any three-loss team to make the field.
The Commodores would need to be one of the seven highest-ranked non-conference champions to make the playoff. Barring major upsets, that’s likely to include at least three SEC teams and two Big Ten teams.
Both BYU and Texas Tech were in the top 10 of the initial reveal, setting up a potential scenario where the two teams from the Big 12 could make the playoff if they split two games against each other. Notre Dame also came in at No. 10, even with two losses.
That means a playoff berth at 10-2 might not be guaranteed.
To get in the top seven non-champions, Vanderbilt needs to be ranked higher than Texas and Oklahoma − meaning Texas and Oklahoma must lose another game.
The Commodores will also likely need one of the Big 12 teams or Notre Dame to fail to qualify for the playoff. The easiest path for this to happen would be BYU sweeping Texas Tech, giving the Red Raiders three losses, or for Notre Dame to pick up a third loss..
The good news is that the ACC doesn’t currently seem like a threat to get multiple teams in. No ACC teams were ranked in the top 10.
Where Vanderbilt football College Football Playoff resume lacks
The CFP doesn’t publicly release the metrics that it uses for selection. However, Vanderbilt’s No. 16 ranking lags behind its No. 12 ranking in ESPN’s Strength of Record. This is likely due to lack of a marquee win.
The Commodores’ only win over a CFP-ranked team is over No. 22 Missouri. Even winning out would not help this aspect as Tennessee came in at No. 25 and would almost certainly fall out of the rankings with a loss to Vanderbilt.
Among other SEC teams, Vanderbilt currently has a better strength of schedule, according to ESPN, than Texas A&M and Ole Miss but worse than Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma and Texas. The upcoming games against Kentucky and Auburn won’t help.
On a conference call, selection committee chair Mack Rhoades mentioned that perceived quality of offensive and defensive line play were factors for ranking teams. The Commodores’ offensive line has struggled against some of the better defenses it has faced, including Alabama and Texas. That could end up being a factor if Vanderbilt is right on the cut line.
Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on X @aria_gerson.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: How Vanderbilt CFP chances look after first rankings release, bracket
