By November, the college football board starts to tighten up. The public piles onto ranked teams and value hides in the spots that most bettors scroll right past. This week’s slate brings three matchups that may not headline the Saturday schedule but quietly offer sharp edges in totals and tempo mismatches.
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No. 3 Texas A&M (-6.5, 47.5) at No. 22 Missouri
As discussed in the early week article, Missouri enters the weekend facing the classic midseason headache: losing its starting quarterback. The silver lining? The Tigers had a bye week to recalibrate. That extra prep time can make a massive difference, particularly on the offensive side, where teams off a bye historically show the greatest improvement.
Texas A&M will test them immediately — the Aggies rank seventh nationally in offensive EPA and can score in bunches. The unknown element of a new Missouri signal-caller adds volatility too; A&M’s defense will have no recent film to lean on. Expect a few busted coverages early as both sides open up. At home, Missouri’s offense should show enough life to keep pace in what could quietly become a shootout.
Bet: Missouri-Texas A&M over 47.5 (-110)
Kennesaw State (-9.5, 52) at New Mexico State
Kennesaw State’s box score last week looked wild — defensive touchdowns, a punt return score, even a safety. Yet despite the fireworks, the total barely sneaked over thanks to a handful of bizarre late-game penalties. Strip away the chaos, and the Owls’ offense remains one-dimensional, funneling everything through its talented running back.
New Mexico State has been a disaster this season, but its run defense has quietly been elite — ranking 34th nationally in rushing EPA. That’s the only bright spot on the board for the Aggies, but it’s the exact matchup you’d want against Kennesaw’s ground-heavy attack. If NMSU can hold serve in the trenches, this one projects far more like a grinder than a track meet.
Bet: New Mexico State-Kennesaw State under 52
San Diego State (-6.5, 49.5) at Hawaii
San Diego State’s defense continues to impress, even as its offense does its best to stay out of the spotlight. The Aztecs rank 15th in defensive EPA and second nationally in points allowed per play, trailing only Ohio State. On the flip side, their offense sits 92nd in both points per drive and quality drives — a perfect formula for low-scoring games.
Hawaii’s offense brings speed and volume but little efficiency. The Rainbow Warriors rank 61st in points per play yet are among the nation’s leaders in punts per drive. Against a disciplined Aztecs defense, that’s a recipe for long fields and stalled possessions. Unless Hawaii hits multiple deep shots, this total feels a few points too high.
Bet: Hawaii-San Diego State under 49.5
