ESPN’s projections have flipped against Clemson for the first time this season. After weeks of favoring the Tigers, the analytics now lean toward Florida State in what looks like a true toss-up.
Florida State’s 4-4 record hides strong efficiency marks. The Seminoles rank in the Top 20 nationally on offense according to both FEI and ESPN’s Football Power Index, and in the Top 50 defensively. ESPN’s FPI gives Florida State a 53.7 percent chance to win, while FEI and SP+ each project a 29–26 score in the Seminoles’ favor. It’s the first time all year that ESPN’s model has picked against Clemson.
Oddsmakers haven’t fully followed the data. Clemson is still a slight 2.5-point favorite, though it has covered the spread only twice this season after the 46-45 loss to Duke.
Updated betting lines for Clemson football’s huge rivalry matchup against Florida State https://t.co/4i4H0HOw7rpic.twitter.com/Sw9rsp6eu4
— Clemson Wire (@Clemson_Wire) November 6, 2025
Florida State started hot with an upset of Alabama before dropping four straight ACC games, then responded with a dominant win over Wake Forest. The Seminoles lead the country in total offense at 510.5 yards per game, but Clemson actually ranks higher against Power Four opponents.
Clemson’s offense has shown signs of life, yet its defense must slow a Florida State attack that can score from anywhere. It’s a surprising shift from midsummer, when Clemson was projected to win this matchup easily.
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This article originally appeared on Clemson Wire: ESPN projections for Clemson football vs. Florida State 2025
