In the aftermath of Everton’s visit to the Stadium of Light on Monday night, it’s easy to forget that the team came away with a point, from a ground in which the hosts have lost only one (genuine) league game since the beginning of last season. If the flow of the match had been reversed, with the Blues playing abjectly for an hour, then roaring back to a 1-1 draw against Sunderland, then fans would likely have been more accepting of the performance — but of course, that is not what took place.
Instead, the Toffees were dominant, and should have led by more than a solitary goal after 30 minutes, but this made the subsequent utter collapse of the team from then until the final whistle, more stark by contrast. At the end of the game, questions as to the nature of what it was that we had just witnessed, and what it means for the rest of the season, hung in the air — unsatisfactorily answered by David Moyes afterwards, and during the week.
Make no mistake, the positive mood surrounding the campaign’s early weeks are long gone, replaced by something more volatile, unpredictable. Mercifully, the Toffees get a quick opportunity to change the narrative, and the mood, less than five days later, against a team sitting one place below them in the Premier League table, with the visit of Fulham to Hill Dickinson Stadium this afternoon.
Form
Marco Silva led the Cottagers to an eleventh-place finish last term, earning six points more and climbing two positions higher than in the previous campaign; a solid sign of progress. Given that almost half of the division qualified for some form of continental competition, the West Londoners were very much in contention until late in the season. The former Everton boss may have been expecting a reward in the form of summer reinforcements — but if this was the case, then he was a disappointed man.
Fulham would spend just €27.5m net during the transfer window, with Brazilian winger Kevin (€40m, Shakhtar Donetsk) comprising the bulk of the outlay. The only other new recruits were 18-year-old Bayern Munich forward Jonah Kusi-Asare, who has almost no senior experience, for a €4m loan fee, veteran backup goalkeeper Benjamin Lecomte (€500k, Montpellier) and one-time Blues wing target Samuel Chukwueze (loan, Milan). Unlike previous summers, when Silva has lost key men in João Palhinha and Aleksandar Mitrović, the only significant departee was attacking midfielder Andreas Pereira (€10m, Palmeiras).
The team got the campaign off to a decent start, drawing against Brighton and Manchester United, losing to Chelsea, but beating Leeds United and Brentford, before hitting a rocky patch. A run of four straight losses – to Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Arsenal and Newcastle United – perhaps underlined that this was a team which had stood still, whilst most of the rest of the division had strengthened — or at least attempted to. Fulham have progressed to an EFL Quarter-final tie with the Magpies next month, but a resounding 3-0 home win over bottom of the table Wolves last weekend was badly needed.
Style of Play
Silva’s tactical approach is well-known to Blues fans, off of his time at the club, but the Portuguese is more experienced, and savvy than in those long-ago days. He still favours the 4-2-3-1 formation, although has played 3-4-3 once this term, and the Portuguese cuts the same energetic, intense figure on the touchline, and is still an emotional guy in post-match interviews, unafraid to call out poor officiating, whatever the threat of official sanction may be. I think partly, this is a quality which has ensured that the 48-year-old is thought of with some affection by many Blues fans — certainly more so than many former Toffees bosses.
Fulham want to get on the ball when they can – evidenced by a 50.3% share of possession (eleventh ranked) – and like to take care of it also, with a highly competitive 83.1% pass accuracy (ninth). They favour short passing, but are slightly more direct this season, with 10.8% played long. In away matches, today’s visitors heavily focus their play down the left. They generate 11.3 attempts on goal per 90 minutes (12th), and with 12 strikes, they are exceeding their xG of 10.3. Bizarrely, three of their goals have been scored by opposition players!
On defence, the West London outfit are only allowing 11.0 per 90 (joint seventh), an xGA of 13.0, and have shipped 14 goals, which indicates that the team is performing more or less in line with the data. They’ve conceded two penalties, from two set-pieces and also twice on the counter, suggesting that they lack any obvious susceptibility. They are a well-organized side and quite aggressive in the challenge, leading the league in fouls conceded per game, with 14.
Team Assessment
The experienced Bernd Leno will line up in goal for Fulham. The 33-year-old is performing at his usual level, which is to say adequate, rather than exceptional. At right back is the man who Everton failed to sign way back at the start of the summer window, in Kenny Tete. The Dutchman is a strong defender, who leads the team in tackles won per 90 (2.0). On the left, in the continued absence of Antonee Robinson, is Ryan Sessegnon, who will push forward whilst Tete hangs back. At centre half, Joachim Andersen is strong in the air, but lacking in mobility, whereas Calvin Bassey has been error-prone, with some costly giveaways.
Silva has been experimenting with his midfield trio, with only Sander Berge an ever-present. The 6’3 Norwegian adds physicality to the engine room, and is neat in possession. Alongside him, will be either Saša Lukić, who is something of an inferior version of Palhinha, or – more likely – Alex Iwobi. The ex-Toffee usually lines up on the left in Silva’s system, but impressed from a central position against Wolves, from where he dictated play. He leads the team with 2.67 passes into the opposition area per 90. In front of the two central players will be the rapid 18-year-old, Josh King, who has started nine of Fulham’s ten league games.
Leading the line is veteran striker Raúl Jiménez. The Mexican stayed fit and fired 12 goals last season, but has started slowly this term. At 34, he’s lost some speed, but is still an intelligent operator, who adds a focal point for the team to play off. On the right wing, Harry Wilson is dangerous cutting inside on his excellent left foot; he’s scored twice in the last five league matches. Lining up on the left will either be Iwobi – who is inarguably the team’s key player – or Kevin, who made his first league start against Wolves. The 22-year-old has excited from the bench, and with a staggering 29 attempted dribbles in just 232 minutes to date, and with a success rate of 51.7%, he could prove troublesome to Jake O’Brien.
Prediction
The Londoners are a capable side, who possess a good manager, who has been let down significantly by the club’s hierarchy this season, hence their relative struggles. They’ve not yet won away from Craven Cottage (one draw, three losses), although all their away games have been against good opposition, and they were terrifically unlucky to have King’s goal chalked off for a phantom foul at Stamford Bridge, with the game at 0-0. The visitors took the lead against both Villa and the Cherries, and were only beaten in the 90th minute at St. James’ Park, so are far from being the pushovers that the formline may suggest.
So, we can assume that the hosts will be up against competent opposition, who have scored (including the Chelsea fiasco) in all five away games this term, which is a little concerning, given that Everton have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last seven, stretching all the way back to the Villa game, in mid-September. The defence has been breached in each of the past three at Hill Dickinson, too, and inexplicably didn’t concede against Brighton, only looking genuinely comfortable against an oddly negative Villa. For a side which does not score a lot of goals, this is problematic.
Once again, figuring how Everton will do this afternoon depends on which team Moyes will select, and how he’ll use his bench to change the game, should this be required. I’d hoped that there’d be changes to what’s become a moribund lineup on Monday, even if I didn’t think there would be — correctly, as it happens. Whether the manager sees the need for changes is unclear, and given he attributed the dismal nature of the last hour at Sunderland to Thierno Barry’s admittedly bad miss – in the 28th minute, no less – I’m thinking that he’ll go with the same eleven today, with the only alternation being Beto in for Barry.
Speaking of the French striker, if this Everton team is so fragile in character, that one – at the moment – fringe player missing a big chance, with the team leading 1-0 at the time and in total control of the game, can cause a collapse of confidence, as Moyes states, then I don’t know what to say about that. Isn’t it his job to encourage and motivate the players at half time, not to mention beforehand, at Finch Farm? His game management on Monday was appalling. Hauling Barry off so early in the second half was uncalled for, as was his negligible use of Carlos Alcaraz – again a junktime substitute – and the non-use of Tyler Dibling and Merlin Röhl.
The German has been a player that Moyes has spoken positively about, so it was a mystery why he was left on the bench, but the Dwight McNeil substitution, in the 62nd minute, was truly baffling. With Iliman Ndiaye coming off, you’d imagine that right winger Dibling, the club’s most expensive summer signing, would be the obvious replacement, so to see Moyes instead call for McNeil, who has never impressed on the right, and who has looked every inch like a player who knows his time at Everton is up, was extremely odd. I don’t know what to make of the manager’s assertion that McNeil had trained well recently, because in an actual competitive game of football, he appeared completely lost. This isn’t to criticize McNeil, who has been an important player for the club, but if this was him supposedly ready for first team football, then it’s hard to see what he offers in his present state.
Personally, I’d move James Garner to right back, O’Brien to centre half, in place of Michael Keane – who should not be about to start his eleventh consecutive league game at this stage of his career – and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall into midfield, alongside Idrissa Gueye, with Alcaraz playing as the number ten, off Barry. I’d be proactive with the bench, ready to introduce Röhl, Dibling and even the lost man that is Adam Aznou, should there be a need for fresh legs, a tactical shift, or should a player just not be having a good game — and this applies to any member of the starting team.
Sadly, Moyes will go with the same lineup that has failed to play a consistent 90 minutes at any point this season, which gives Fulham a better chance of getting some kind of result at Hill Dickinson Stadium, than should be the case. Everton has the talent, in Jack Grealish and Ndiaye, to win and the Cottagers are far from formidable, but right now, I’m struggling to make a strong case for a home victory.
Score: Everton 1-1 Fulham
Statistics provided courtesy of fbref.com, transfermarkt.com and whoscored.com
