The Green Bay Packers defense will line up against a battered and bruised New York Giants offense this Sunday, almost certainly led by a backup quarterback and with an interim head coach in Mike Kafka, after the firing of Brian Daboll.
Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart’s concussion means he is yet to practice this week and looks a long shot to play, but it will not be Russell Wilson, who started New York’s first three games this season, under center in his stead.
Fellow veteran Jameis Winston is set to start on Sunday for the first time as a Giant, and he has had some success against the Packers in the past, notably leading the New Orleans Saints to a 38-3 Week 1 win in a game that was played in Jacksonville, with Winston throwing five touchdowns.
This Giants offense has not been prolific, ranking 23rd in expected points added (EPA) per play and 26th in offensive success rate, however, Dart had given them some juice in recent weeks, putting up 30-plus points against the Eagles and Broncos in back-to-back weeks.
With Wilson starting, New York did manage to put up 37 points against a porous Dallas defense, but scored only six against Washington and nine versus Kansas City.
While Winston has had some good days against the Packers, he is best known for being a turnover machine. Including rushing, he has 167 career touchdowns compared to 172 turnovers.
Green Bay has forced a turnover in each of the last four games after struggling to take the ball away early in the season, and Winston will likely give them chances on Sunday.
Carrington Valentine has been close to picking passes off in recent weeks, and Xavier McKinney is always a threat to do so. Expect the secondary to be on high alert for chances to attack the football.
The Giants have also been hit hard at wide receiver, with star wideout Malik Nabers out for the year with a knee injury. They were already lacking difference makers without Nabers, but Darius Slayton has also not practiced yet this week with a hamstring injury and looks unlikely to play.
That essentially leaves slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and tight end Theo Johnson as the most viable pass catching threats.
Robinson ranks 81st out of 97 qualified receivers in average depth of target, but 23rd in yards after the catch per reception, so Green Bay’s linebackers and secondary will need to tackle well to prevent him turning short catches into chunk gains.
Johnson is an athlete, and the Packers have given up a lot of production to tight ends on the year, so they will need to pay plenty of attention to him.
Rookie Cam Skattebo had been running well before his own season ending injury, and his play is the main reason the Giants rank in the top ten in rushing EPA. He was averaging 4.1 yards per carry, and his physical running style helped New York sustain drives and wear down opponents. With him now lost for the year, it will be Tyrone Tracy, who had a strong rookie season of his own last year, averaging 4.4 yards per attempt, but is down to 3.9 this year having lost his starting job to Skattebo. Devin Singletary also gets in the mix but is averaging just 3.3 yards per rush.
It is not an especially efficient running game with Skattebo out, but Tracy did rank 13th in the league in breakaway rate last year, so they are still capable of hitting a big play or two on the ground. This is another reason tackling will also be a key component for Green Bay this week.
Along the offensive line, Andrew Thomas is one of the best left tackles in the league, and the rest of the group is fairly solid as well.
As a unit, they rank sixth in PFF’s pass blocking grade on the year, but that will be put to the test with Micah Parsons, Rashan Gary, and a potentially returning Lukas Van Ness on the other side of the line of scrimmage.
The Giants only rank 17th in run blocking grade though, and without Skattebo, they do not have someone to grind out extra yards by smashing through defenders’ faces.
They are averaging the seventh most rushing attempts per game, and like previous offenses that have faced Green Bay, the plan for New York will likely be to drain the clock as much as possible and limit possessions. They rank eighth in plays run per drive and 13th in time elapsed.
That does not totally play into the Giants’ strengths though, as they struggle to pay off long drives with touchdowns. They turn red zone possessions into touchdowns at the 29th highest rate in the NFL, and rank dead last in EPA per play in the red zone, compared to 11th outside of it.
It was not always clear who was calling plays on offense in New York, but Kafka has done it for stretches or entire seasons, so there should not be too many surprises for Green Bay.
The defensive plan for the Packers should be to sell out to stop the run and tackling securely to try to get the Giants in 3rd-and-long, and make Winston beat them from there with his limited set of pass catchers.
Leaning into the chaos that Winston brings can be dangerous, but him throwing up passes downfield is often good news for the defense. Previous “bad” teams had pathways to hurt or survive against this elite Packers defense, but this banged up Giants offense should not.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Giants offense scouting report: Packers should expect chaos from Jameis Winston
