One of the interesting hallmarks of this season is that a number of good teams have lesser records because of losses to other good teams, while bad teams have winning records because of victories over other bad teams. We’re picking against a couple of those teams in Week 12, and we’re also taking on a very different game: where the best team of the year by DVOA meets the worst team.
(All odds are per BetMGM.)
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans Over 43.5
The Texans went under last week, but they went over in their first game with Davis Mills at quarterback. (C.J. Stroud will return in Week 13, but Mills gets another start here.) The fantastic Texans defense will face a powerful Bills offense, and the Bills running game should have an advantage since the Texans are much stronger against the pass than against the run. The Bills defense is only 22nd in DVOA this season and the Texans offense is 23rd, which is probably not as low as you might expect. Add in the game being indoors, and we’ll go with the over despite the short week of preparation for both teams.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears are just 25th in DVOA at 7-3, the second-lowest DVOA ever for a 7-3 team going back to 1978. They are slightly below average on offense, and bad on both defense and special teams. The Pittsburgh Steelers rank 14th in DVOA and it looks like Aaron Rodgers will play despite a fracture in his non-throwing wrist. The Steelers defense has been coming around and now ranks 10th on the season.
Cincinnati Bengals +8.5 vs. New England Patriots
Similar to the Bears-Steelers game, we have a team that is much lower than DVOA than its win-loss record would suggest. The Patriots are just 17th in DVOA at 9-2, the second-lowest DVOA ever for a 9-2 team going back to 1978. (You probably remember the lowest 9-2 team, the Vikings from three years ago.) The most important ranking for the Patriots is that their pass defense is now 28th in DVOA once we adjust for their easy schedule. The Bengals offense ranks 14th overall and is third in the league if we only look at games since Joe Flacco came to town. This should be a shootout even with Ja’Marr Chase out of action with a suspension, and I think the Bengals can keep it within one possession.
Seattle Seahawks -13.5 at Tennessee Titans
The Seattle Seahawks remain No. 1 in my DVOA ratings despite their narrow loss to the Los Angeles Rams (who are No. 2) last week. The Tennessee Titans rank dead last. The last-place team in DVOA has never beaten the first-place team. Many NFL observers still criticize Sam Darnold for seeing ghosts when he plays in a high-pressure game against a tough opponent. This is not that game.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Over 39.5
Kirk Cousins and Tyler Shough? How can we go over on that matchup? Well, the Falcons defense has not been playing as well lately, and the Saints rank 24th against the pass by DVOA. This game is indoors, plus the Saints play at the fastest offensive pace in the league this year, one play every 25.7 seconds. The Falcons are above average as well at 28.2 seconds. It’s a low number, so we’re going over.
