The Red Sox have been looking for a number two pitcher behind Garrett Crochet atop their rotation and may have just found their guy in Sonny Gray.

He didn’t come cheaply though. Boston had to part with a young starting pitcher in Richard Fitts and high-upside prospect Brandon Clarke to get it done.

The Cardinals also chipped in a cool $20 million to push this deal over the line. That brought Gray’s money due by the Red Sox down to $15 million before a mutual option for 2026 with a $5 million buy-out.

Let’s break it all down here.

MLB Free Agent Tracker 2025-26: Latest signings, top players, and biggest offseason deals

Stay up to date with the MLB free agent market this offseason, including player signings, contract details, and team fits as the 2025-26 Hot Stove heats up.

• 
  D.J. Short

  ,

▶ How Good is Sonny Gray?

Starting with Gray, he’s been remarkably steady with a 3.53 ERA (39th among qualified pitchers) over 650 and 2/3 innings (17th among qualified pitchers) since 2022. In terms of volume and consistency, he’s as solid as they come.

Yet, there are some troubling signs for the 36-year-old. His average fastball velocity has fallen from 93 mph to a shade under 92 mph over the last two seasons. With that, it has gotten absolutely destroyed by opposing hitters and has never been the most effective pitch.

Luckily, Gray still has one of the best breaking ball combos in the league with his sweeper and curveball.

They are straight up nasty and give him an out-pitch for hitters from both the right and left side of the plate. His sweeper is so good it’s proven effective against lefties as well.

Despite his breaking ball quality, he wound up with an ugly 4.28 ERA last season. That was his worst mark since that one disastrous season he spent with the Yankees back in 2018.

His underlying stats hint that he pitched far better than that due to a strikeout minus walk rate that was seventh-highest in the league at 21.6%. That led to the 11th-lowest FIP and 6th-lowest SIERA in the league.

Striking out more batters and walking fewer is always good. It’s especially important in a hitters’ haven like Fenway Park where balls in play are more likely to do damage. That seemed like a key reason why the Red Sox targeted Gray.

They’ve found success over the last few years helping starters work around bad fastballs too.

Brayan Bello picked up a cutter in June that helped him reach another level. Garrett Crochet’s fastball and cutter were elite, but he developed a sinker last season that became his most used pitch against lefties by season’s end. It also had the highest Run Value in his arsenal.

Helping Gray find more consistency with his cutter and sinker could be the key to him achieving that number two starter production the Red Sox seek.

▶ Return for the Cardinals

Again, the St. Louis got a huge return in Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke for one guaranteed season of a pitcher approaching their late 30s with a diminishing fastball.

Originally acquired by the Red Sox ahead of the 2024 season for Alex Verdugo (seriously) as one of the first moves Craig Breslow made in Boston, Fitts is a hefty, imposing right-hander listed at 6’3” and 230 lbs that has an interesting profile.

He’s pitched to a 3.97 ERA across 65 2/3 major league innings over the last two seasons, but struggled with both consistency and durability. He struck out far fewer batters than many expected (17.5 K%) given what appears to be a deep arsenal of seemingly plus pitches.

His fastball has sat between 94 and 96 mph with a cut-ride shape and great extension that should miss more bats at the top of the zone. He also has a trio of impressive breakers with a sweeper, tighter slider, and curveball that have all taken a jump in quality since joining the Red Sox organization.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see him become a stable back-end to mid-rotation starter if he can stay healthy and grow as a pitcher.

Clarke is the wild card in this deal. He’s a huge lefty with nearly seven feet of extension, a fastball that touches triple digits, and an outrageously good slider.

He’s a project though with only thrown about 140 total innings under his belt between junior college and the minor leagues. He struck out 34.5% of the batters he faced last season across 38 IP split between low-A and A-ball, but ran a 15.5% walk rate.

This is a high-variance prospect whose most likely outcome is a high leverage reliever with the upside and raw stuff to potentially be a front-end starter if things break perfectly right.

It’s likely the $20 million the Cardinals included in this deal to pay down half of the guaranteed money on Gray’s deal helped them get these two exciting arms. If a team is going to tear it down, it’s encouraging for their fans that the club is willing to put money up to maximize their return.

▶ Fantasy Baseball Impact

Gray is going to be pitching in a worse park, but in front of a better team. His current Steamer projection is for a 3.45 ERA and the 11th best starting pitcher in 5×5 formats according to the FanGraphs Auction Calculator.

That feels like something closer to a high-end outcome to me though rather than an expectation. However, there is probably some upside just from the strength of the Red Sox’s major league pitching program and having the best outfield in baseball in terms of Outs Above Average behind him.

Fitts could factor into the Cardinals’ depleted rotation immediately and will be a fun dart throw in deeper leagues moving to a much better pitchers’ park if he’s healthy heading into spring training.

▶ Other Offseason Quick Hits

• Raisel Iglesias agreeing to head back to the Braves gives him a great floor after the elite closers go off the board. His 29 saves, 3.21 ERA, and 27.4 K% flew under the radar last season.
• Adolis García was the most notable player non-tendered last Friday, After slugging 38 HR as a nearly five-win player in 2023, he struck out a combined 312 times over the last two seasons with just a .675 OPS to go along with it. He will catch on with another team, but is unlikely to return to his top form.
• Christopher Morel was also non-tendered. It’s hard to find his fantasy value with the Rays giving up on him without fixing his swing-and-miss issues. It’s hard to find his real-life value with the many steps back his defense has taken.
• For other noteworthy non-tendered players, Michael Toglia feels like a fun project for a team more equipped than the Rockies to take on due to his raw power.
• MJ Melendez also still has enough power and athleticism to possibly be a strong-side platoon bat in the near-future.
• A record four players accepted the qualifying offers in Gleyber Torres, Trent Grisham, Shota Imanaga, and Brandon Woodruff. That could be a hint to us that the market may not be kind to free agents this winter. The hyper-active trade market early on could be another indication of such.