The list of scenarios for the Big 12 Championship game was lengthy heading into the past few weekends, but that picture is now very straightforward in the final week of the regular season.
Only four teams remain in the hunt for a berth in the Dec. 5 title game – Arizona State, BYU, Texas Tech and Utah – with Texas Tech and BYU holding the clearest paths. If the No. 5 Red Raiders win at West Virginia, and if the No. 11 Cougars defeat UCF, those two will meet in Arlington.
ASU and Utah both have outside chances, but they don’t control their own destiny and need some assistance.
Utah’s path is the simplest of the two. The Utes must beat Kansas, then hope for a Texas Tech loss, and wins by Arizona State and BYU.
For the Sun Devils, they must first take care of business in a rivalry game against Arizona, then there are three combinations of results that would earn them a trip to the title game for the second year in a row. First, losses by both BYU and Utah would do the trick. For the final two scenarios, ASU needs a Tech loss, and either a BYU win and Utah loss or a BYU loss and a Utah win.
By far the most probable outcome is a BYU vs. Texas Tech title game. Each is in with a win, and both play an opponent outside the top 12 in the league standings. It’s not a guaranteed outcome, though, and a loss by either would open the door for a chaotic race to the finish line Saturday.
Game of the Week
Arizona (8-3, 5-3) at No. 25 Arizona State (8-3, 6-2), Friday, 8 p.m. ET/7 CT, FOX
Nationally, this weekend is considered rivalry week, but this is the only true rivalry game in the Big 12 this week. It has a national audience on Black Friday, too.
The Wildcats have had a resurgent season after going 4-8 last year with only one bowl appearance in the past seven seasons. Now, they have the opportunity to knock their ranked rival out of the Big 12 title game race in the final week of the season.
Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita has thrown eight touchdowns and only one interception during the Wildcats’ four-game winning streak, and the defense ranks top 25 nationally in scoring defense (20.0 points a game).
The Sun Devils haven’t quite had the season they expected after returning quarterback Sam Leavitt and others from a team that won the Big 12 title last year and made the College Football playoff, but they still have a shot at a conference crown and are the only team to have beaten Texas Tech.
Leavitt is injured, but Jeff Sims has done well in his place, throwing for more than 200 yards twice in ASU’s three-game winning streak and rushing for 228 yards and two scores in a win against Iowa State.
Although the Sun Devils need help to make Arlington, a win Friday would do their part in getting there, and it would put the pressure on Texas Tech for Saturday.
The Undercard
Cincinnati (7-4, 5-3) at TCU (7-4, 4-4), Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET/1:30 CT, FOX
This game has no Big 12 championship implications, but it’s a good game for those who enjoy solid Big 12 football. It’s also the final game of the Big 12 regular season and the only afternoon kickoff in the Big 12 on Saturday.
Cincinnati was in the title race all season but fell out of contention with a three-game losing streak that’s spanned the month of November. But the Bearcats still have a capable offense, led by quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who threw for 300 yards and two TDs in a loss to BYU last week.
TCU has a pair of three-point losses to Iowa State and Arizona State it wishes it could have back, or this game could mean more to its conference championship hopes. The Horned Frogs keep fighting, though, and they knocked off No. 23 Houston on the road last week.
Playoff Picture
Entering the final week of the regular season, only one Big 12 team is a near lock for the College Football Playoff. However, there is a realistic path for the Big 12 to sneak a second team in.
Texas Tech has a 90% chance to make the CFP, according to ESPN’s playoff predictor. The Red Raiders have the sixth-best odds in the country to make the 12-team field.
BYU is on the bubble in playoff talks, sitting with a 49% probability of making the field, the nation’s 13th-best odds. The Cougars must win against UCF this weekend and hope for some losses around them for some breathing room.
Utah has a 17% chance of making the CFP, and Arizona State has a slim 1% chance of returning to the playoff for a second season.
