This is how 50,000 simulations projects updated NFL playoff picture and odds based on Week 13 results originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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Week 13 includes an incredible slate of Thursday Thanksgiving games, each of which carries with it dramatic implications for the playoff picture.
While most years includes at least one Turkey day dud at least as it relates to the bigger picture, every game this year truly matters. Packers at Lions, Chiefs at Cowboys and Bengals at Ravens is a trifecta that you’d be hard-pressed to top. The showdown in Dallas could even threaten the all-time record for most-watched NFL Thanksgiving game.
And this is all before getting into the rest of a loaded Week 13 slate.
Truth be told, we’re still a bit far off from being able to drill down specific playoff scenarios for every team. Aside from already determined head-to-head tiebreakers, there are still way too many variables at play to truly carve out definitive paths to the postseason.
But that doesn’t mean its impossible to project out playoff chances for every team based simply on whether or not they win. This is where the indomitable Sebastian Carl comes into play. Carl is an engineering wiz who doubles as an NFL analytics savant and provides weekly playoff leverage projections throughout the season (in addition to many other things). You can follow him @mrcaseb on X.
Sebastian simulates the rest of the season 50,000 times to project how likely a team is to make the playoffs based on either a win or loss each week. Those simulations account for tiebreakers, remaining strength of schedule and a number of other factors.
Here are the Week 13 numbers in graphic form.
— WEEK 13 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage —
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game. pic.twitter.com/RjeK6Nqz3v
— Sebastian (@mrcaseb) November 25, 2025
I’ll drop all of those numbers in a table at the bottom but a few key observations:
- Six teams with the most at stake this week are the Texans, Lions, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers and Steelers. All of those teams feature at least a 30% difference in their playoff probability pending a Week 13 win or loss.
- Cowboys face a do-or-die. With a loss, their chances of making the playoffs plummet to just 7%. But a win against the Chiefs and their odds jump to 29%, more than a puncher’s chance.
- While the Chiefs don’t face a do-or-die, their playoff odds would dip under 50% with a loss on the road in Dallas. A postseason without Patrick Mahomes? That far-fetched fantasy starts to materialize if they lose.
- With a win, the Packers, Bills, Colts, 49ers and Seahawks would each have at least a 90% chance of getting in.
- Even with a loss, the Broncos are still in good shape in the AFC West.
Here are all of the Week 13 permutations for every team that has at least a 5% chance of making it should they win, sorted from greatest to least leverage at stake.
| Team | With W | With L | Diff | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 26% | 63% | 37% | at Colts |
| Jaguars | 45% | 79% | 34% | at Titans |
| Lions | 55% | 85% | 30% | Packers |
| Chiefs | 43% | 73% | 30% | at Cowboys |
| Chargers | 35% | 65% | 30% | Raiders |
| Steelers | 30% | 60% | 30% | Bills |
| Bills | 64% | 92% | 28% | at Steelers |
| Packers | 65% | 92% | 27% | at Lions |
| Bears | 55% | 82% | 27% | at Eagles |
| Colts | 71% | 95% | 24% | Texans |
| Ravens | 57% | 81% | 24% | Bengals |
| 49ers | 67% | 90% | 23% | at Browns |
| Cowboys | 7% | 29% | 22% | Chiefs |
| Seahawks | 73% | 93% | 20% | Vikings |
| Panthers | 17% | 35% | 18% | Rams |
| Buccaneers | 66% | 83% | 17% | at Bucs |
| Broncos | 91% | 98% | 7% | at Commanders |
| Falcons | 1% | 6% | 5% | at Jets |
| Eagles | 96% | 99.7% | 3.7% | Bears |
| Rams | 96% | 99.6% | 3.6% | at Panthers |
| Patriots | 97 | 99.9% | 2.9% | Giants |
Of course, these specific numbers are independent of how other games shake out. For example, a Chiefs win coupled with losses by the Broncos and Chargers would equate to a playoff probability greater than the 73% number reflected above.
But given there are literally thousands of different outcomes, even this limited view does a great job of contextualizing the importance of every game.
