Arizona comes to Tampa for a sticky early-window kickoff, with both teams needing a little momentum as the season starts to tighten up. From a fantasy perspective, this game is packed with moving parts. You have a tight end who has been lighting up the scoring column, a Tampa offense still trying to find stability, and two backfields that are up in the air, for now.
All scoring references here are half-PPR and taken from the FantasyPros.
Weather outlook
Sunday in Tampa brings classic late-season Florida chaos. The forecast calls for a high around 82, with humidity, an east-northeast wind around 7 miles per hour with gusts up to 14. That means we should see a dry game, with only a 2% chance of rain and scattered cloud cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Offensive snapshot
Baker Mayfield comes into Week 13 as QB25 with an F matchup grade and a projection of 14.0 fantasy points. He is listed as questionable with a non-throwing shoulder issue. Tampa expects him to play, but the risk is real. If he cannot go or takes a hit early, Teddy Bridgewater would be the next man up. Bridgewater looked like a quarterback whose last start was in 2022 last week, and that is because it was. If that switch happens, this entire offense changes on the fly.
Emeka Egbuka is the clear focus of this passing game. He ranks as WR15 with an A matchup grade and a projection of 11.4 points. His season backs that up with 137.8 total fantasy points and a 12.5 average. When Tampa needs a play, the ball goes in his direction. Egbuka’s season has been a tale of two halves as he’s posted only one game of 20 points since week 5.
After that, things get murkier. Chris Godwin Jr. is WR52 this week with a C minus grade and 7.0 projected points. He has just 10.1 total fantasy points on the season because he has been sidelined for most of the season with an injury. Tez Johnson sits at WR55 with a similar grade and 6.8 projected points, but quietly carries 71.6 total points and a 7.2 average. Right now, Tez is the more active piece of that secondary group.
The backfield is where the real risk comes in. Bucky Irving is RB22 with a B-minus grade and 11.4 projected points, but he is questionable and may be on a snap count. He has played only four games but already has 62.5 total points with a 15.6 average. When he is on the field, he looks explosive. Sean Tucker is RB44 with a D grade and 6.2 projected points. He has 65.1 total points and can spike if volume falls into his lap. Tampa may use three running backs as they try to ease Irving back in, which makes every running back in this game risky.
Cade Otton checks in as TE18 with a D matchup and 7.2 projected points. He sits at 60.7 total points with a 5.5 average. He is not a featured piece, but in this weather and matchup, volume could sneak him into the usable range.At kicker, Chase McLaughlin is K11 with a C grade and 7.7 projected points. He actually leads most of this offense in weekly reliability with 100 total points and a 9.1 average.
Tampa Bay trends and consistency
Mayfield has 188.8 total points and a 17.2 per game average, but that number is built on a strong early stretch and a noticeable dip over the last two games. The shoulder adds another layer of volatility. Egbuka is the most stable weekly option on this roster. His highs reach legitimate WR1 territory, and even his low weeks still come with volume.Irving has looked like the most dynamic back on this team when active, but his missed time keeps his season total low. If he plays without heavy restrictions, he is the best bet in this backfield. Tucker continues to profile as a volume and touchdown-dependent flex play. Otton and McLaughlin remain floor-based fantasy pieces.
Tampa Bay injury impact
If Mayfield is limited or unable to finish, the offense shifts into a more conservative version with Bridgewater. That would help Egbuka and Otton from a volume standpoint, but would cap overall upside across the board. If Irving is truly on a snap count, this backfield turns into a three-way puzzle with no clean answer. That makes trusting any Tampa running back extremely difficult.
Arizona Cardinals
Offensive snapshot
Jacoby Brissett has swiftly stabilized this offense for fantasy. He ranks as QB11 this week with a B-minus matchup and a projection of 17.7 points. His production shows a strong floor and multiple ceiling weeks. He has 128.5 total fantasy points in just six games played. In this matchup, he is the more stable quarterback option.
Michael Wilson leads the Cardinals’ wideouts this week at WR20 with an A-minus grade and 10.7 projected points. His season has been uneven but he has been trending up with 26 and 16.8 point games in recent weeks, the targets have been there for Wilson so he should be a great option for fantasy managers again this week. He has 82.9 total points with a 7.5 average.
Greg Dortch sits at WR50 with a C minus grade and 7.1 projected points. His overall average is modest at 5.3, but his past two double-digit games show that he can still matter when the offense opens up. Truly touchdown dependent, but he has been seeing more targets since the change at QB1 for Arizona.
The running game is patched together again. Zonovan Knight is RB40 with a D-plus grade and 7.0 projected points. He has 61.9 total fantasy points and a 6.9 average with several usable outings. Michael Carter sits at RB54 with an F grade and 4.6 projected points and profiles ai am uncertain who will get the bulk of the carries/targets out of the backfield this week..
The star of this offense is clearly Trey McBride. He is TE1 this week with an A-plus matchup and a massive 14.4 projected points. He has 161.7 total fantasy points and a 14.7 average with multiple weeks over twenty. He is the heartbeat of this passing game and a locked-in elite starter at a position that only has a few true playmakers anymore.
At kicker, Chad Ryland ranks K22 with a D-plus grade and 6.8 projected points. Even with the low grade, his 86 total points and 7.8 average keep him in play when Arizona stalls in opponent territory.
Arizona trends and consistency
Since Brissett took over full-time, he has lived in the high teens and low twenties almost every week. That kind of stability matters in this matchup. McBride is one of the very few tight ends who give managers both a strong floor and a real weekly ceiling.
Wilson seems to have another stable week lined up for fantasy managers, while Dortch remains a matchup and script-driven flex play. Knight and Carter remain risky depth options who need either volume or touchdowns to become useful.
Arizona injury impact
Arizona is still dealing with injuries across the offensive line and in the running back room. Demercado is out, Hernandez is out, Beachum is banged up, and Knight is questionable. All of that tilts more responsibility toward Brissett and McBride. If Marvin Harrison Jr. is fully active after the illness, he will pull coverage away from Wilson and McBride. If he is limited, both Wilson and Dortch benefit directly.
Fantasy takeaway
This game sets up as one where the tight ends and top receivers could matter more than the running backs. The Tampa weather adds just enough chaos to make timing throws and ball security more important, and something to monitor.
On the Arizona side, McBride is the clearest smash play on the board. He brings volume, consistency, and true ceiling. Brissett is a comfortable mid-range starter with a lot of upside. Wilson is a solid WR2 option, and Dortch offers flex potential based on recent production and matchup flow, as well as his usage on kick returns. Knight and Carter are thin-depth plays who need help from the game script.
For Tampa, Egbuka is the one player you can start with confidence. After that, everything comes with a warning label. Mayfield brings injury risk and the threat of a mid-game quarterback switch. The backfield is a full committee with Irving working back from injury and Tucker hovering for secondary work. Otton can land in the usable TE2 range based on volume.
If you want stability, you lean toward Brissett, McBride, and Egbuka. If you’re going to chase upside in deeper formats, Wilson, Dortch, Irving, and Tez Johnson make sense, though Irving could be on a snap count. Every running back in this game comes with more risk than reward. The fantasy edge here belongs to the quarterbacks and the tight ends.
FantasyPros Consensus Rankings
Buccaneers vs Cardinals, Week 13, Half PPR
Quarterbacks
- QB11 Jacoby Brissett
- QB25 Baker Mayfield
Running backs
- RB22 Bucky Irving
- RB40 Zonovan Knight
- RB44 Sean Tucker
- RB54 Michael Carter
Wide receivers
- WR15 Emeka Egbuka
- WR20 Michael Wilson
- WR50 Greg Dortch
- WR52 Chris Godwin Jr
- WR55 Tez Johnson
Tight ends
- TE1 Trey McBride
- TE18 Cade Otton
Kickers
- K11 Chase McLaughlin
- K22 Chad Ryland
This article originally appeared on Bucs Wire: Bucs vs. Cardinals fantasy preview Week 13 offensive breakdown
