The Guardians very predictably made their first free agency move of the offseason by finding a discarded relief pitcher of a type they have been wildly successful in maximizing in right-handed pitcher Connor Brogdon.
On the surface, signing a 30 year old with a career 4.36 ERA coming off a season where he had a 5.55 ERA seems like a puzzling move. But, that’s where you have to dig a little deeper… Brogdon has several traits that the Guardians prize in pitchers:
-He has 92nd percentile extension (how close the ball is to the plate when he releases it)
-He has elite Stuff+ numbers. For his career, he has a four-seamer that is rated 109 for his career, a change-up registering at 111 and a cutter at 100. He even threw a sinker briefly in 2021 which registered at 137, and the Guardians have had success in getting pitchers to go back to throwing sinkers as recently as 2025 in Matt Festa who began throwing one with Cleveland that he hadn’t used since 2022. With 100 being an average pitch in terms of underlying metrics such as movement, spin, and extension, Brogdon looks like a pitcher who should be good based on the pure stuff he has.
-He has a career strikeout rate over 9 batters per 9 (9.14) and a career walk rate around 3 batters per 9 (3.33). Generally speaking, you’ll notice the Guardians targeting relievers who can match or better these two marks.
-He got lost with organizations not known for maximizing relief pitchers in the Phillies and the Angels. The Guardians are always there for these pitchers to say, “Come home to Papa Carl and he will cure what ails you.” With that said, from 2021-2023, Brogdon had a 3.55 ERA in 142 innings for Philadelphia so he has already been a solid pitcher in the not-to0-distant past. He also has a career expected ERA of 3.63.
-He is under team control through 2027.
This is exactly the kind of pitcher I was expecting the Guardians to target when I wrote this piece; however, I did not scroll down far enough on the Spotrac Free Agent list to find Brogdon so he was not on my radar. I want the Guardians to add relief pitching this offseason, but I want them to use the vast majority of whatever money they have to spend on trying to fix their hitting problem via trade or free agency. So, I would not view this move as an indication of strapped finances this offseason. Do I expect the Guardians to spend a lot? Absolutely not. But, I simply think they found a player here whom they (with good reason) believer they can turn into a reliable 7th inning option and they got him at a good rate.
Great beginning to the offseason, Chris Antonetti. Now, whatcha got for us next?
