Heisman Watch: It all comes down to the Big Ten championship game for Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza

A three-quarterback Heisman race will be decided by two of those players on Saturday night as No. 1 Ohio State plays No. 2 Indiana for the Big Ten title.

OSU quarterback Julian Sayin is the slight favorite for the Heisman at +150 entering the title game. Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia is second at +170 and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is right behind at +175.

Unlike Sayin and Mendoza, Pavia isn’t playing on Saturday. Vanderbilt missed out on the SEC title game and his regular season is over. Instead, the two Big Ten quarterbacks will go head-to-head in a game that will determine the top seed in the College Football Playoff. And whichever team that wins the Big Ten title is likely to have the Heisman winner too.

Little has separated Sayin and Mendoza so far in 2025. Both of their teams are 12-0 and each quarterback is averaging 9.4 yards a pass attempt. Mendoza has eight more total touchdowns than Sayin and is averaging more yards a completion. Sayin’s completion percentage is over six points higher than Mendoza’s on 34 more throws and his interception percentage is slightly lower.

The excellence of each quarterback’s season is worthy of the Heisman Trophy. It’s both awesome and a little bit of a shame that the award is probably going to come down to one game. A bad — or even average — performance on Saturday night from either quarterback shouldn’t overshadow what’s happened in the previous 12 games. But it’s also fun to see the significant stakes attached to the game given that both teams are certain to receive first-round byes in the College Football Playoff and will likely end up on opposite sides of the bracket.

It’s incredibly simple to say that whoever plays better will win the Heisman. But with hundreds of Heisman voters tuning in on Saturday night — sorry, ACC — a four-touchdown performance for either QB is likely to loom as a big tiebreaker.

Sayin is also going for a college football record, though he could have as many as four more games to play this season. His completion percentage of 78.9 percent is approximately 1.5 points higher than the mark Bo Nix set in 2023. He has five games this season with a completion percentage north of 80% and he’s had just two games this season where he’s completed fewer than 70% of his passes.

But despite being on track for the record himself in 2023, Nix finished third in the Heisman voting to LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. Penix finished over 800 points ahead of Nix in the voting after his Washington team beat Oregon, 34-31. Nix posted a higher passer rating in that game and rushed for 69 yards, too.

Even though Pavia is the No. 2 favorite and a virtual lock to head to New York as a finalist, his best bet to win the award is for neither quarterback to have a good game in a 13-10 slog. If both Mendoza and Sayin struggle, voters could be attracted to the 752 passing yards, 213 rushing yards and eight total touchdowns that Pavia put up in Vanderbilt’s last two games.

Here’s a look at the stats for the three clear Heisman frontrunners after the regular season.

Ohio State QB Julian Sayin

  • 258-of-327 passing for 3,065 yards, 30 TDs, 5 interceptions; 31 carries for 27 yards

Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia

  • 242-of-340 passing for 3,192 yards, 27 TDs, 8 interceptions; 152 carries for 826 yards, 9 TDs

Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza

  • 211-of-293 passing for 2,758 yards, 32 TDs, 5 interceptions; 64 carries for 243 yards, 6 TDs

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