Our Eliminator series is nearing the end of this college football season. With just ten games left before we learn the College Football Playoff entrants, we are getting some pretty narrow scenarios for every team that can make the Playoff.
An interesting thing this year is that a lot more non-Power 4 teams are still alive than expected. This is not because there are multiple possibilities for the best Group of 5 champion; the AAC has that locked up. Instead, it’s because of Duke. Even if the Blue Devils win the ACC, they won’t be one of the top five conference champions. They would be behind the AAC champ, as well as James Madison or UNLV.
If all of Duke, Troy, and Boise State win this week, I will have to un-eliminate teams for the first time ever while doing this series. And the team I would un-eliminate isn’t clear. Would Duke get the bid at 8-5? Would be it 9-4 Boise State or Troy? Or would a 10-3 Kennesaw State team suddenly get looks? We might have a massive bubble for the fifth-highest conference champion.
Lastly, we have three more Playoff locks this week. Georgia, Oregon, and Ole Miss are all going to be in the 2025 College Football Playoff.
Let’s give a quick table of the teams still alive in the Playoff race. (Of the two independents and two Pac-12 teams, only Notre Dame is still in contention.)
| American | |
| ACC | Duke, |
| Big Ten | Indiana, |
| Big 12 | |
| Conference-USA | None |
| MAC | None |
| Mountain West | |
| SEC | Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, |
| Sun Belt | James Madison |
Remember, I don’t predict the outcomes of games here. I have one rule for how I eliminate a team. I ask: Does this team have a chance to reach the Playoff if it wins out? If the answer is maybe or yes, then that team isn’t eliminated. If the answer is no, then it makes the list.
In addition to this weekly article, I will be counting down the teams in this thread on X (formerly Twitter). I will also have a second thread detailing which teams (using the same principles) are out of contention for the seven at-large spots.
Week 14 College Football Playoff Eliminator
27 teams entered Week 14 with a chance of making the College Football Playoff if they win out, and three entered as locks. We eliminated 12 more in Week 14 and locked three more teams into the Playoff, leaving 12 still in contention for the final six spots.
| Georgia | Guaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football Playoff |
| Ole Miss | Guaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football Playoff |
| Oregon | Guaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football Playoff |
| Arizona State | Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Georgia Tech | Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Michigan | Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Navy | Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| New Mexico | Eliminated from MWC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Pitt | Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| San Diego State | Eliminated from MWC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| SMU | Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| South Florida | Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Texas | Committee ranking indicates outside at-large picture |
| Utah | Committee ranking indicates outside at-large picture |
| Vanderbilt | Committee ranking indicates outside at-large picture |
Previous Weeks
| Ohio State | Guaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football Playoff |
| Texas A&M | Guaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football Playoff |
| Arizona | Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Cincinnati | Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| East Carolina | Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Fresno State | Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Hawaii | Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Houston | Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Memphis | Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Temple | Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| USC | Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| UTSA | Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Western Kentucky | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Indiana | Guaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football Playoff |
| Army | Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Baylor | Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Boise State | Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Cal | Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Duke | Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Florida Atlantic | Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Illinois | Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Iowa | Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Kansas State | Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Kennesaw State | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Louisville | Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Minnesota | Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Nebraska | Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| North Carolina | Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| N.C. State | Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Southern Miss | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| TCU | Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| UCLA | Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Utah State | Five losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Virginia Tech | Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Wake Forest | Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Washington | Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Florida | Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Kansas | Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| LSU | Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Missouri | Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Northwestern | Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Tennessee | Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| UAB | Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Central Florida | Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Clemson | Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Iowa State | Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Maryland | Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Rice | Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Stanford | Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Troy | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Arkansas | Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Auburn | Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Boston College | Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Colorado | Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Florida State | Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Kentucky | Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Louisiana Tech | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Michigan State | Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Mississippi State | Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Penn State | Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Purdue | Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Rutgers | Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| South Carolina | Eliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Syracuse | Eliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Tulsa | Eliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| West Virginia | Eliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Wisconsin | Eliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid |
| Appalachian State | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Charlotte | Six losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| New Mexico State | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Oklahoma State | Six losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Old Dominion | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| San Jose State | Five losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Wyoming | Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Marshall | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Miami (OH) | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Ohio | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Texas State | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Toledo | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Air Force | Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Coastal Carolina | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Colorado State | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Florida International | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
Week 5:
| Arkansas State | Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Bowling Green | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Buffalo | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Georgia Southern | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Jacksonville State | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Northern Illinois | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| South Alabama | Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| UTEP | Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be top-five conference champion |
Week 4:
| Ball State | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be top-five conference champion |
| Georgia State | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Kent State | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Liberty | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Louisiana | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Nevada | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Sam Houston | Four losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Washington State | Two bad losses, not eligible for conference champion bid |
Week 3:
| Central Michigan | Two bad losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Eastern Michigan | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
| Massachusetts | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be top-five conference champion |
| Oregon State | Three losses, not eligible for conference champion bid |
| Western Michigan | Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
Week 2:
| UConn | Two losses, not in a conference |
| Middle Tennessee | Two bad losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion |
Week 1:
| Delaware | Not bowl eligible this season |
| Missouri State | Not bowl eligible this season |
| Akron | Not bowl eligible this season |
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: College Football Playoff eliminator after Week 14
