Fans are in for a treat if the SEC Championship is anything like the regular season meeting between Alabama (10-2) and Georgia (11-1). On September 27 the Tide defeated the Bulldogs 24-21 in Athens, ending Georgia’s 33-game home winning streak.
It continued Bama’s recent run of dominance against the Dawgs. Alabama has won ten of the last eleven games against Georgia. The Bulldogs lone win in that stretch, however, was in the national title game in 2022.
Key Matchup to Watch: Alabama’s Defense vs. Georgia’s Offense
Look for Georgia and Nate Frazier to try and establish the run against an Alabama defense that has struggled at times against opposing running backs. In addition, the Crimson Tide will be missing key defensive lineman LT Overton due to injury. No question that loss heightens the challenge for Bama’s defense.
Lets dive into the matchup and look at each school’s offense and defense including some key players.
Game Details and How to Watch Alabama vs. Georgia
- Date: Saturday, December 6th, 2025
- Time: 4:00PM Eastern
- Site: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- City: Atlanta, GA
- TV/Streaming: ABC
Game Odds for Alabama vs. Georgia
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Alabama Crimson Tide (+114), Georgia Bulldogs (-135)
- Spread: Georgia (-2.5)
- Total: 47.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
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Alabama Crimson Tide
Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer
2025 Record: 10-2 (7-1)
Offense Ranking: 22
Defense Ranking: 6
Strength of Schedule: 2
Under head coach Kalen DeBoer, Alabama posted a 10-2 record (7-1 SEC) and finished 12th in SP+, balancing a Top 25 offense with a Top 10 defense. The Crimson Tide rebounded impressively after an opening loss to Florida State, stringing together eight straight victories including wins over Georgia, Missouri, and Tennessee, in addition to narrow setbacks to Oklahoma and Georgia that have clouded their Playoff chances. Offensively, Alabama showed flashes of explosiveness but lacked the consistent ground dominance of prior seasons, ranking just 73rd in rushing success rate while thriving through the air behind a 48.6% passing success rate (13th nationally). Defensively, Kane Wommack’s unit has been formidable situationally, holding opponents to 4.86 yards per play (21st), forcing red-zone touchdowns only 43.3% of the time (8th), and ranking 11th in EPA per dropback allowed. Alabama’s appearance in the SEC title game has reinforced that the program’s transition under DeBoer remains on track.
The Alabama Crimson Tide Offense
Alabama’s offense under longtime DeBoer lieutenant OC Ryan Grubb has blended efficiency and balance, ranking 22nd nationally in Offensive SP+ despite uneven rushing production. The Tide have leaned on a precision passing attack, posting a 48.6% passing success rate (13th) and 9.8 adjusted net yards per attempt, to offset a ground game that ranked just 73rd in rushing success rate. Their offensive line remained steady, allowing pressure on only 2.0% of dropbacks (22nd) and helping sustain drives at a 79.3% down-set conversion rate (12th nationally). While the unit lacked the explosive play rate of past Alabama teams, its high third- and fourth-down conversion efficiency kept the chains moving and position the Tide among the nation’s most consistently productive scoring offenses.
Alabama Player to Watch on Offense: QB Ty Simpson
Ty Simpson bided his time in Tuscaloosa until getting the nod to be Alabama’s starting quarterback this year, completing 65.8% of his passes for 3,056 yards and 25 touchdowns against only 4 interceptions. His 83.0 overall PFF grade and 80.3 passing grade underscore his consistency as both a decision-maker and rhythm thrower in Ryan Grubb’s system, ranking among the SEC’s top signal-callers in adjusted accuracy (75.7%) and average depth of target (8.8 yards). Simpson handled pressure well—posting an 18.5% pressure-to-sack rate and 2.96 seconds time-to-throw—while displaying notable poise and mobility, rushing for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns with a 50.9% success rate. Though six fumbles highlight areas for improved ball security, his blend of efficiency (8.7 ANY/A) and controlled aggressiveness (only 3.0% turnover-worthy play rate) reflect a quarterback in complete command of Alabama’s offense.
The Alabama Crimson Tide Defense
Alabama’s defense remained among the nation’s most disciplined and efficient, ranking 6th in Defensive SP+ and holding opponents to just 4.86 yards per play (21st nationally). The Tide excelled situationally, allowing a 36.6% success rate (16th) and limiting red-zone touchdowns to a stingy 43.3% (8th) behind DC Kane Wommack’s aggressive, zone-heavy scheme. Their pass defense is elite, surrendering only 5.1 yards per dropback (16th) and a -0.15 EPA per dropback (11th) while generating a strong 27.0% sack conversion rate on pressures (7th). Though the defensive front has been less dominant than in past years, Alabama’s cohesion and coverage discipline kept opponents in check, anchoring one of the most reliable stop units in the SEC.
Alabama Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Yhonzae Pierre
Yhonzae Pierre emerged as Alabama’s most disruptive edge presence in 2025, leading the team with 6 sacks, 32 pressures, and 16 total havoc plays. His 18.5% pressure rate was elite by SEC standards, and he consistently forced opponents into difficult third downs, generating pressure on 26.4% of his third-down pass rushes. Pierre’s 12.5 tackles for loss reflected his ability to close off rushing lanes and finish plays in the backfield, complementing his explosiveness off the edge with disciplined run fits. With eight sacks created and one forced fumble, Pierre proved to be a game-changing presence who gave Alabama a dynamic, reliable finisher.
Georgia Bulldogs
School: Georgia
Head Coach: Kirby Smart
2025 Record: 11-1
Offense Ranking: 15
Defense Ranking: 8
Strength of Schedule: 12
Georgia’s 2025 regular season was another strong campaign under Kirby Smart, finishing 11-1 (7-1 SEC) with an SP+ ranking of No. 6 overall and an offense-defense balance of 15th and 8th, respectively. The Bulldogs combine Top 15 efficiency on both sides of the ball with one of the nation’s most reliable red zone offenses (No. 4 in TD rate at 77.6%) and a defensive front ranked Top 10 nationally in rushing success rate allowed (36.3%). While Georgia’s adjusted scoring margin (+17.2 PPG) and points per drive (2.95 on offense, 1.53 allowed) reflect steady dominance, their -1 turnover margin and limited explosiveness (122nd in marginal explosiveness) kept them from consistently separating from top-tier foes. Still, the Bulldogs closed with statement wins over Texas (35-10) and Georgia Tech (16-9) to maintain CFP contention heading into another SEC Championship clash with Alabama. It was a quintessential Smart-era performance—disciplined, physical, and efficient, if slightly less explosive than the national title teams of 2021–22.
The Georgia Bulldogs Offense
Georgia’s offense ranks 15th nationally in SP+ behind a balanced, efficiency-driven approach that leans on a 48.1% success rate (15th) and a Top 5 performance on standard downs (55.7%). The Bulldogs have been lethal in the red zone scoring touchdowns on 77.6% of trips (4th nationally), but lacked their trademark explosiveness, ranking 122nd in marginal explosiveness and producing gains of 20+ yards on just 6.3% of plays. Their rushing attack averages 4.8 yards per carry with a solid 47.6% success rate, while the passing game is built around precision—69.3% completions (11th) and one of the lowest pressure rates in the country (1.8%, 9th best OL protection). Though less dynamic than recent Georgia juggernauts, Mike Bobo’s unit remained ruthlessly efficient and situationally elite, capable of sustaining long drives and converting at an elite 5.09 points per scoring opportunity (13th).
Georgia Player to Watch on Offense: QB Gunner Stockton
Gunner Stockton delivered a poised and efficient campaign as Georgia’s starting quarterback, completing 70.2% of his passes for 2,535 yards and 20 touchdowns while maintaining an impressive 86.0 Total QBR. He excels in rhythm throws and decision-making, posting a 50.2% success rate and keeping mistakes minimal with just five interceptions on 329 attempts. Stockton also adds real dual-threat value, rushing for 455 yards and eight touchdowns on 5.17 yards per carry, with a 53.4% rushing success rate and 13.6% of his attempts gaining 10+ yards. His composure under pressure (only 4.4% sack rate despite an 18.5% pressure-to-sack ratio) and balance as a passer-runner make him the steady engine behind Georgia’s Top 15 SP+ offense.
The Georgia Bulldogs Defense
Georgia’s defense finished 8th nationally in SP+, continuing its trademark blend of discipline, tackling, and efficiency. The Bulldogs ranked 10th in rushing success rate allowed (36.3%) and 15th in yards per play allowed (4.85), suffocating opponents on early downs with a 44.2% success rate and forcing long third downs throughout games. While the defensive line havoc rate (2.1%) dipped well below Kirby Smart’s usual standard, Georgia compensated with elite linebacker play—ranking 8th nationally in LB havoc rate (6.7%) and 10th in tackle success rate (89%). Opponents struggled to generate explosives, producing 20+ yard gains on only 4.5% of plays (8th nationally), as the Bulldogs once again paired schematic discipline with elite fundamentals to finish among the nation’s stingiest defenses.
Georgia Player to Watch on Defense: CB Ellis Robinson IV
Ellis Robinson IV showcased elite coverage ability, emerging as one of Georgia’s most reliable defenders in man situations. He allowed just 9 completions on 22 targets (40.9%) for 159 yards with 4 interceptions and 4 pass breakups, posting an excellent 50.3 opposing QBR. Robinson’s sticky coverage forced an 18.2% incompletion rate, and he was rarely beaten deep, giving up only one 20+ yard completion all season. Despite limited tackle volume (15 total), his 9.0 havoc plays and playmaking instincts made him a cornerstone of Georgia’s next-generation secondary.
Alabama and Georgia: Team Stats and Betting Trends
- Georgia is 5-7 ATS this season
- Alabama is 8-3-1 ATS this season
- Georgia’s last 3 games have stayed UNDER the Total
- The OVER has cashed in 5 of Georgia’s 12 games this season (5-7)
- The OVER has cashed in 5 of Alabama’s 12 games this season (5-7)
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Ty Simpson OVER 7.5 Rushing Yards
Alabama HC Kalen DeBoer doesn’t have a traditional SEC ground game, as he focuses on pass efficiency while they rank a paltry 134th in yards per successful rush, 118th in YAC and 120th in yards per rush (4.3). Which is why they will run Ty Simpson in order to pick up incremental gains, especially when they’re stressed, as Simpson has gone Over his 7.5 Rushing Yards line 5-of-his-last-6 games. He has rushed at least 4+ times per game vs. Every P4 Team with a long rush of 7+ yards in every game this season, meaning this projection is all about limiting negative plays. While Alabama’s line is once again a rugged outfit, Georgia is sporting a pitiful 13.8% pressure rate (126th) and 4.1% sack rate (121st). This isn’t the UGA pass rush we’ve become accustomed to, which means I like Simpson’s Over 7.5 Rushing Yards line against the Dawgs.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Alabama and Georgia
- Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Alabama Crimson Tide at +2.5.
- Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the OVER on the Game Total of 47.5.
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