On Friday, news broke that the Penn State football team is working towards a deal with Iowa State head football coach Matt Campbell to make Campbell the next head coach of the Nittany Lions.
Campbell has been the Cyclones’ head coach for the last 10 seasons. He has a 72-55 record in his career at Iowa State and 107-70 record overall as a head coach. He replaces James Franklin, who was fired following the Nittany Lions’ 3-3 start in 2025.
This is a really consequential move for USC and Trojan fans. Campbell was a primary candidate to become USC’s head coach after they fired Clay Helton back in 2021, before the Trojans ultimately hired Lincoln Riley instead.
Now, Riley and Campbell will be direct rivals. And in fact, the two teams are set to play each other in 2026. That makes USC-Penn State one of Riley’s biggest prove-it games in 2026. Let’s talk about it.
How close was Campbell to becoming USC coach?
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy may know just how close Campbell-to-USC was better than anybody.
Back in July, Purdy revealed to hosts Taylor Lewan and Will Compton on the Bussin’ With the Boys podcast that Campbell had an offer to become USC’s head coach before the Trojans ultimately landed Riley. Purdy believes Campbell seriously considered taking it, but a conversation that Purdy had with Campbell himself ultimately helped sway Campbell to stay in Ames.
“I think USC offered him something legit, before Lincoln Riley,” Purdy said. “When they offered him some stuff, he was deciding on whether to go.”
“So after that he was crying and we were all going through it emotionally, but after that he decided ‘I’m going to stay at Iowa State.’ I’m not saying I was the determining factor in that, but I think just gave him a little perspective on being a father, what matters, raising your kids. He could do that at Iowa State.”
For all intents and purposes, it sounds like the closest USC got to hiring anyone other than Lincoln Riley was in their negotiations with Matt Campbell. Trojans Wire editor Matt Zemek and I talked about this on The Voice of College Football back when it happened:
USC-Penn State in 2026: a timeline trap for Lincoln Riley
Now here we are, four seasons later. Riley is embarking on his fifth season at USC, while Campbell appears to be headed to Happy Valley for season #1.
These two teams play each other in 2026, and for all intents and purposes, it would be an embarrassment for Lincoln Riley if USC loses.
Remember, when Riley was hired in 2021, USC was coming off a 4-8 season. That included a 3-6 conference record.
In 2026, Penn State will be coming off a 6-6 record, but that will include a 3-6 conference record. Penn State is in the cellar of the Big Ten right now the same way USC was in the cellar of the Pac-12 in 2021.
If Campbell’s product just one year later is directly better than Riley’s product in year 5 at USC and he proves it by beating him on the football field, that will not only prove Campbell is doing better work right now, but also raise questions about the work Campbell could have done if USC gave him the reigns in 2021.
Remember, Penn State is proving that luring Campbell out of Ames is possible, no matter what Brock Purdy says.
Campbell’s time at Iowa State since 2022 vs. Riley’s at USC
In the time since Campbell stayed at Iowa State and USC hired Lincoln Riley instead, Campbell has gone 30-21. Riley has gone 35-17. Each coach has one conference championship game appearance. Lincoln Riley has 4 bowl appearances and has 2 bowl wins, with the potential to get a third this month. Campbell has 3 bowl appearances and 1 bowl win.
It’s not like Campbell has had more success than Riley since the two mens’ paths diverged, so keep that in mind. But USC and Iowa State are two different situations with regards to resources, obviously.
Could Penn State game make or break Lincoln Riley?
We don’t know when USC and Penn State will play each other. We don’t know what each team’s record will be. We only know that it is set to happen in Happy Valley.
But I don’t see any game on USC’s schedule reflecting more on Riley’s legacy than USC-Penn State. If USC loses to Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame, there are excuses you could come up with for Lincoln Riley. You can decide if those are good or bad excuses, but the excuses exist nonetheless.
But if USC loses to Penn State, I don’t know how Jen Cohen doesn’t see that as direct evidence that Mike Bohn and company hired the wrong coach back in 2021. Again, with regards to conference records, if Campbell can make 3-6 Penn State better than 7-2 USC in one year, what could he have done with 3-6 USC in 2021? What could be have been doing with all of USC’s resources right now, five years in?
Even if you point to Campbell’s 2022-25 record as the reason he wouldn’t have had resounding success at USC, you’re implicating Riley because he’s had a similar level of success at USC. That just means there were two bad options USC was picking between.
I think Cohen will quickly decide that it’s time for her to choose who the next head coach is, and not be shackled to Mike Bohn’s choice.
Other coaching matchups
But to be fair, it’s not just the Riley-Campbell matchup that will define Riley’s legacy in 2026. Riley will have to play Matt Entz (a former USC assistant), Dan Lanning (hired the same year as Riley and is 2-0 against the Trojans since), Curt Cignetti (hired after Riley on a smaller contract and having way more success), Bob Chesney (potentially the next Cignetti) and potentially Marcus Freeman (became the head coach the same year as Lincoln Riley, USC is 0-2 in its last two meetings against Notre Dame).
That’s a prove-it year if I’ve ever seen one. Each of those games has the potential to damage (or strengthen) Riley’s reputation massively.
The bright side
I’ve spent most of this article bemoaning the potential horrors and disasters of what could happen if Penn State (and others) beat Lincoln Riley and USC next year. I’m an optimist at heart, I can only be a pessimist for so long. It’s not in my nature. So let’s talk about the bright side.
A season rich in narratives like USC’s will be in 2026 is also a season rich with opportunity. It’s not as if Riley loses to Campbell, it will be a game everyone remembers, but if the Trojans lose, it will be immediately forgotten. The fact that Riley is dealing with so much pressure means that if he delivers, it will be epic, and there will be a lot to celebrate.
Just as much as it’s possible that 2026 could break Riley, it’s also possible that it could be the adversity that turns USC into a juggernaut and Riley into one of the best coaches in the country. There’s so much to be excited about as a college football and especially a USC fan in a season with so much meaning, and so many reasons to root for the Trojans to have success.
So for now, I am choosing to be grateful that we get to see these matchups play out, and that we have genuine hope that USC can win them.
If USC loses to Penn State, then even I can revisit this article and throw out every ounce of optimism. And if I am forced to do that, the USC administration probably will be as well.
This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: Matt Campbell is next coach for Penn State football, will face USC
