Analyst predicts Rams player wins award — but not Matthew Stafford

The Los Angeles Rams finished the 2025 regular season with a win, and a few of the team’s top players could be in line for the NFL’s biggest awards later this winter.

All eyes will be on quarterback Matthew Stafford. The soon-to-be-38-year-old led the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns during his 17th season with 4,707 passing yards, 46 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. He is expected to be one of the top contenders for NFL MVP, but he’ll have some competition from New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye.

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell doesn’t think Stafford will win MVP (he has Stafford finishing second behind Maye), but Barnwell does have a different Rams player winning an award. Barnwell predicts receiver Puka Nacua will win NFL Offensive Player of the Year after Nacua finished the year with an NFL-leading 129 receptions for 1,715 yards and 10 touchdowns (his yards and touchdowns finished second and sixth, respectively).

Even while missing a game because of an ankle injury, Nacua did more than enough to earn this honor. [Seahawks receiver Jaxon] Smith-Njigba (3.86) narrowly topped Nacua (3.82) in yards per route run after a quiet Week 18 for the Rams star, but Nacua led the league with a 98 in ESPN’s receiver scores, the third-best mark posted by any wideout in any season since 2017. And according to Next Gen Stats, the Rams star led the league in receptions over expected (18.7) and receiving yards over expected (449), owing both to excellent quarterback play from Matthew Stafford and a propensity for absolutely ridiculous catches, such as his one-handed catch on a fade for a touchdown against the Cardinals on Sunday.

Everything else Nacua does puts him over the top. He’s incredibly physical after the catch and simply overpowers opposing defensive backs. He’s an effective runner for the Rams on jet sweeps and racked up 105 rushing yards, five first downs and a touchdown on 10 carries. Nacua is also one of the NFL’s best blocking wideouts. He might be the most complete player in the NFL.

As for why Barnwell picked Maye over Stafford, he laid out two reasons: The Patriots finished the year better and Stafford had an easier path to more production.

Let’s start with the simplest reality: Outside of the schedule, there’s really not an argument to be made for Stafford over Maye as MVP. The Patriots won 14 games and their division. The Rams won 12 games and did not. I don’t place much stock in quarterback wins mattering in this discussion, but to the extent that team record and performance are relevant, that factor favors Maye.

I don’t want to take anything away from Stafford, who has been incredibly fun to watch this season. If he does win MVP, it won’t be a travesty. He’s playing excellent football on a great team as the driving force of one of the league’s best offenses. If you really value those short passing touchdowns and his increased passing volume while downplaying what Maye has done with his legs, you’ll probably prefer Stafford.

No matter the outcome, both Stafford and Nacua had tremendous seasons. Those two will care more about different hardware in February, though.

This article originally appeared on Rams Wire: Analyst predicts Rams player wins award — but not Matthew Stafford

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