Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

The second half of the women’s college basketball season is in full swing, which means March Madness will be here before we know it. And with it comes a little something called Bracketology. It’s a made-up word, but there is real math behind it, along with some less predictable elements, including the human component of 12 committee members officially deciding who makes the field of 68. There are 31 automatic bids awarded to teams that win their conferences, which leaves 37 at-large bids up for grabs.

Join me as I get inside the mind of a committee member for The Athletic’s first women’s bracketology of the season:

Let’s talk No. 1 seeds

If you’re feeling a sense of basketball deja vu, that’s because the current No.1 seeds are the same four teams we saw in last season’s Final Four. The unbeaten, defending champion UConn Huskies currently hold the overall No. 1 seed, followed by UCLA, Texas and South Carolina. It’s no secret that the Big East is a weak conference, but UConn always combats that issue with an intense nonconference schedule. This season, the Huskies played the hardest nonconference slate in the country, securing wins over Louisville, Ohio State, Michigan, USC and Iowa. Plus, UConn has the highest NET (an equation that takes into account results, location, margin of victory and other factors), a metric that is valued highly by the committee.

But even if UConn finishes the season undefeated, there is still a world in which UCLA steals the top overall seed. The Bruins are currently projected to earn the second No. 1 seed, but the stacked Big Ten could change that. Twelve Big Ten squads are currently in the field of 68, so if UCLA manages to get through the gauntlet that is its conference unscathed, it would be almost impossible not to reward the Bruins with the top seed.

As for Texas and South Carolina: Despite beating UCLA early in the season, the Longhorns have played a less challenging schedule thus far and have fewer quality wins. South Carolina and Texas are nearly equal in resume, but Texas owns the head-to-head matchup after topping the Gamecocks 66-64 on Nov. 27.

Texas Tech seeks first bid since 2013

Things are happening in Lubbock. Things like a 17-0 record, which marks the best start in program history. The Raiders are not only on track to earn their first bid since 2013, but after escaping an upset bid from West Virginia on Wednesday, Texas Tech also could be hosting first-round matchups.

The Raiders present an interesting case because they seemingly came out of nowhere after finishing 17-17 (4-14 Big 12) last season, but this is actually an experienced team. Of the seven players who have appeared in all 17 of Texas Tech’ s games, all but junior Jalynn Bristow are seniors. That maturity was on full-display against the ravenous defense of West Virginia, when the Raiders closed out the victory by outscoring the Mountaineers 21-13 in the fourth quarter. Three weeks prior, Texas Tech secured a one-point upset win over Baylor thanks to two high-pressure free throws from guard Bailey Maupin.

Duke is somehow rising again

After a start to the season that had me wondering if Duke would even make the tournament, the Blue Devils have found their groove. They’ve won seven in a row, including a victory over Notre Dame. Duke’s intense nonconference schedule is paying off. After losing to Baylor, West Virginia, South Carolina, UCLA, LSU and a less-impressive opponent in South Florida, the Blue Devils learned from their slow start in order to open ACC play at 5-0.

Kara Lawson has been a defense-first coach since she took over at Duke, and her commitment to the identity is working. In a 78-74 victory over Cal on Thursday, the Blue Devils scored 24 points off of turnovers. Their defensive intensity was the difference in the fourth quarter, as Duke outscored Cal 22-10 for a comeback win.

LSU needs big win to get back on track

Right now the only thing keeping LSU as a top-four seed is its No. 5 ranking in the NET, which is being heavily influenced by their lopsided margins of victory. When it comes to strength of schedule, the Tigers rank 266th, which is leaps and bounds better than their nonconference strength of schedule ranking of 339. In other words, LSU hasn’t played anyone. Well, that’s not entirely true. The Tigers faced a rising Duke team back in December, winning 93-77 in a victory that will likely end up being a resume booster when the season is over.

Other than that, LSU doesn’t have a quality win. It opened the SEC with back-to-back losses to Kentucky and Vanderbilt. The Tigers need to start securing wins over top competition if they want to stay above the four-line in order to host in the first round. Their 80-59 victory over bubble team Georgia on Thursday was a good start, but if LSU can win one of its next two games, over Texas or Oklahoma, the Tigers will likely move up to be a No. 2 or 3 seed.

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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

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