We are down to the final four teams still standing in the NFL.
When it comes to betting these games and getting action down early in the week, we will look at how the markets opened and shifted slightly since Sunday night, what the teams most up to date injury reports are, and which key numbers in NFL sides and totals the current lines revolve around. All of this in an effort to figure out where these lines are going to move between now and Sunday kickoff and go into the game with bets that have closing line value (+CLV), and therefore a positive expected value (+EV), to indicate a strong market position.
Here are a couple early bets I like for the championship games:
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
New England Patriots (-5, 41.5) at Denver Broncos
The major news coming out of Denver in the wake of the Broncos’ 33-30 overtime win against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills was that Broncos quarterback Bo Nix sustained an ankle fracture that requires surgery and he’s lost for the rest of the season. The Broncos instead will start Jarred Stidham, a veteran backup who last threw a pass in an NFL game in late 2023 (outside of preseason reps).
To quantify this we will reflect on a preseason rating system from Yahoo’s very own Ben Fawkes, which had Bo Nix rated about 4 points better than his backup in Stidham. The current line at Patriots -5.5 has moved significantly more than that, as the Broncos were priced as home favorites in theoretical look-ahead lines against the Patriots or Texans before the games took place. Not all points are valued equally in the NFL, and while switching favorites is not a huge value shift, moving through the 3 with the Patriots now out to -5.5 is immense. At this point to bet the spread for this game, it’s the Broncos now or waiting until a better Patriots number shows back up. I do not think this game will touch Patriots -6, and if it does it will be a momentary flash that will be bet the other direction.
The total is where I have an actionable angle right now, and that is towards the under at 41.5. This total has been bet up, opening at BetMGM at 40.5 and now sitting at 41.5. Crossing through the 41 is significant, as 41 represents the fourth-most common NFL scoring outcome over the last three seasons. Dating back further only makes the number more important as well.
While Broncos head coach Sean Payton is widely regarded as an offensive guru, I expect the play calls he has ready for Stidham on Sunday to be safe, prioritizing the run game, quick passes and bootleg type of rollout looks. A lot of designed plays are based on timing. Denver’s offensive success is not likely to be found in generating explosive plays.
On the other end is a defensive-minded coach in Mike Vrabel who is lauded for his specific game plans to attack opposing teams. I expect heavy pressure against Stidham to force him to make a decision and hopefully make some mistakes. One of Nix’s best qualities is his ability to avoid taking sacks, and I am not sure that holds up for Stidham. Pressure will be the best way for the Patriots to put the Broncos in long down-and-distance situations and needing to convert a big play.
The Denver defense is also ranked No. 3 in the league in points allowed at only 18.3 points per game during the regular season. The Broncos defense will know it carries the brunt of the responsibility to keep this game close. Forcing field goals instead of touchdowns against tDrake Maye will be vital, and keep this a low-scoring contest.
At current numbers I like the under and in the prop market, would look to Broncos kicker Wil Lutz over 6.5 points scored at any price -140 or better (that is current number at BetMGM). The altitude allows for distance kicks, and Sean Payton is one of the coaches still opting to take the points in some key fourth-down situations.
Bet: Under 41.5 (-110), Wil Lutz over 6.5 points (-140)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 47.5)
At the end of the NFL regular season, the Rams and Seahawks ranked second and third in the NFL in market-based power ratings – and they were only 0.1 points away from one another.
To use these ratings systems, we match up teams and find the difference, and then factor in the weight of home-field advantage. If home field is worth generally 1.5 points from neutral sites in the NFL, then the Seahawks were a projected 1.4-point favorite heading into the playoffs. The opening line for this game on Sunday night was Seahawks -1.5, so this all lines up.
The next layer of thinking is what has changed. The Seahawks had a bye week and then absolutely destroyed the San Francisco 49ers, winning 41-6. The Rams have played two road games and have won both, but failed to cover against the spread in either one.
The Seahawks took clear action in the betting market prior to the win over the 49ers, while the Panthers and Bears both took sharp “steam” on their spread numbers against the Rams and covered. These factors, the rest, the market moves, the subsequent results would shift the market rating system to have the Seahawks ahead, and thus the line move to -2.5 as the current consensus line is spot on.
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I would still bet Seattle -2.5 or on the money line at -155. The money line has slightly more value at the current prices, and any Seattle -160 or better is a bet I am willing to place. The lone injury concern was Sam Darnold dealing with an oblique injury sustained in practice late last week, but he looked fine and now has another week to get even healthier.
In total, I also like the under in this game. The repeat matchup and fact that this game is the third meeting between these teams this season means increased familiarity with the game plan, scouting report and opposing player tendencies. Repeat matchups are an edge towards defenses and less scoring. I also think there is some asymmetry in the market direction. At the current price of 47.5, I think there is a higher chance this drops than rises. Finally, the current weather report for a Sunday night in Seattle forecasts little chance of rain and low wind impacts. However, that is certainly subject to change.
Any significant change in the forecast would probably make the expected conditions worse, meaning the total here would plummet. Take the under on what might be a good number at kickoff.
Bet: Seahawks money line -155, Under 47.5
