The top-seed in the AFC, the Denver Broncos, will host the No. 2 seed New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon in the AFC championship game.
The Broncos prevailed in overtime in a wild divisional round game against Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills, winning 33-30 but losing Bo Nix to a season-ending ankle injury in the process. The Patriots, as 3.5-point home favorites, took care of C.J. Stroud and Houston Texans by a 28-16 score and beating the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3 in the wild-card round.
Is this where the bounceback season ends for Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel in New England? Can backup Jarrett Stidham do enough to help a vaunted Denver defense reach a Super Bowl?
Ben Fawkes gathers insight from oddsmakers for the game, and our team of NFL handicappers provides its favorite wagers on Sunday’s matchup.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
No. 2 New England Patriots (-5, 42.5) at No. 1 Denver Broncos
What oddsmakers are saying
“We opened Patriots -5.5, I would’ve had Patriots -1.5 with Nix starting. To me, this is exactly what was called for, since I feel like the difference is close to 4 points ATS from Nix to Stidham. Currently, sitting at New England -5 and a total of 42. We opened the total 40.5, pretty much all of the money on the total has been on the over. Early action on the side has been people willing to lay points with New England, but more money has come in on the Denver money line. From a futures standpoint, we are in a good shape to both.” — Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata
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“We opened Patriots -4.5, went up -5.5, now back down to -4.5. These are two very defensive-focused teams, but you put in new QB, you also increase the chances of an interception or turnovers. Total probably would’ve been 43.5, opened 40.5, sharp action pushed it to 42.5. How much is Bo Nix worth to this line? We probably made him 4.5 to 5.5 points of value, but the market is pricing him closer to 6. I wouldn’t be surprised to see sharp money on Broncos as we get closer to game time.” — Joey Feazel, head of NFL trading at Caesars Sportsbook
Best bets
Matt Jacob: During the regular season, the Patriots faced three opponents that qualified for the playoffs: Pittsburgh, Carolina and AFC East rival Buffalo (twice).
The Patriots split home games in consecutive weeks against the Steelers (21-14 loss in Week 3) and Panthers (42-13 win in Week 4). Then they went to Buffalo in Week 5 and scored a 23-20 upset win, only to lose the Week 15 rematch 35-31 (after squandering 24-7 halftime lead).
So in 18 weeks, New England played exactly one road game against a playoff team. To be fair, the Pats won that game — part of a perfect 8-0 road record. But look at the competition (and the results).
New England throttled two terrible teams (Tennessee and the New York Jets) by a combined score of 73-23. The victory margins in its other six road triumphs: 6 points (Miami), 6 points (New Orleans), 6 points (Cincinnati) 5 points (Tampa Bay), 4 points (Baltimore) and 3 points (Buffalo).
Now is a good time to mention that the Patriots not only faced just three playoff teams in the regular season, but the Bills (11-6) and Steelers (10-7) are the only two that finished with winning records.
So why is New England a 5-point road favorite in the AFC Championship Game against a Broncos squad that went 14-3 in the regular season (same as the Patriots), 8-1 at home and earned the No. 1 seed and first-round bye?
I get it: Nix (ankle) is out and Stidham is in. It’s less than ideal for the home side. But Stidham has spent the past two seasons in Denver. He knows Sean Payton’s offense. And he got every single first-string rep in practice this week.
Most importantly, Stidham will be supported by a ferocious defense that ranked second in the NFL in yards allowed, third in points allowed and recorded 11 more sacks than any other team.
On Sunday, that defense will be getting after a sophomore quarterback making his first postseason road start — a QB who was sacked 47 times in the regular season, 10 more times in two playoff games and fumbled 14 times (with six coming in the last two weeks).
Forget the points. The Broncos are winning this outright.
Bet: Broncos money line (+210)
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Jacob: If I believe that Denver will spring the upset in Sunday’s AFC championship game, it means I also believe that Stidham will meet the moment. Because you know exactly how Vrabel is going to scheme this game defensively: load the box, stop the run and dare Stidham to win the game with his arm.
In other words, Vrabel gets to make the first chess move. And I’m confident that his counterpart — Broncos coach Sean Payton — will respond to that move by letting Stidham wing it. Honestly, Payton doesn’t have much of a choice.
For one thing, even with Bo Nix under center, the Broncos struggled to run the football all season. Beyond that, the Patriots’ defensive strength is stopping the run — which they proved in playoff wins over the Chargers (22 carries, 87 yards) and Texans (22 carries, 48 yards).
So expect Stidham to put the ball in the air often and expect him to have success — just as he did in each of his four NFL starts: 36 passes, 219 yards; 32 passes, 224 yards; 34 passes, 272 yards; 34 passes, 365 yards.
Bets: Jarrett Stidham over 31.5 pass attempts (-120); Jarrett Stidham over 192.5 passing yards (-115)
Jacob: A quick check of the box scores reveals an Achilles’ heel for Denver’s otherwise sensational defense: It struggles to contain tight ends.
In the last eight games, the following tight ends have found space against the Broncos:
Kansas City’s Travis Kelce (nine catches in Week 11; five catches in Week 17); Washington’s Zach Ertz (10 catches in Week 13); the Raiders’ Brock Bowers (four catches in Week 14); Green Bay’s Luke Musgrave (four catches in Week 15); Jacksonville’s Brenton Strange (five catches in Week 16); and Buffalo’s Dalton Kincaid (six catches in the AFC divisional playoffs).
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During this two-month stretch, only Chargers tight end Oronde Gadsden Jr. failed to produce — he had two receptions in Week 18. Of course, Gadsden’s QB that day was Trey Lance, not Justin Herbert.
Although Maye and tight end Hunter Henry connected just four times in two playoff games, I expect the duo to exploit this glaring weakness in the Broncos’ defense.
Bet: Hunter Henry over 3.5 receptions (-150)
