The Seahawks are 4.5-point favorites versus the Patriots in Super Bowl 60. But recent history shows that it has no bearing on which team will win.

We’re in an era of relative Super Bowl parity. It’s been 18 years since the big game yielded a favorite above 5.0 points. That was Super Bowl 43, when the Steelers (-7) edged the Cardinals 27-23. This contest marked the 17th time in the previous 21 Super Bowls that a team was favored by 7+ points. Favorites had won 13 of those 17 matchups. Their victories weren’t surprising.

But that’s changed in the modern era. Since Super Bowl 44, favorites have won only five out of 15 times. The betting market granted favorites the benefit of the doubt during the big-point-spread era of the mid-1980’s to the late-2000’s. That bullishness has carried over into the past 15 years—but with much different results.

Bettors might consider tossing Seattle’s perceived advantages out the window. They are “favorites” in name only. Both teams finished 14-3 in the regular season. After a dreadful start, New England has won 16 of their last 17 games. Neither team has lost by more than seven points.

Some say the Patriots benefited from a soft schedule. But nine years ago, another 14-win Patriots team was accused of having a soft schedule. They rallied from a 28-3 deficit to topple the Falcons in Super Bowl 51.

We are still in an era of parity. If recent history is any indication, a Seattle victory would be just as surprising as a New England victory.

This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Super Bowl 60: why the favored Seahawks are not actually favorites