A victory over Indiana on Sunday afternoon would go a long way for the Spartans’ chances at landing a high seed in the Big Ten Tournament.
Michigan State picked up a monster road upset win over top 10 Purdue earlier this week, and now is in a good spot to land a triple-bye in the Big Ten Tournament… as long as they can beat Indiana on Sunday. According to Paul Fanson (a.k.a. Dr. Green and White) of Spartans Illustrated, the Spartans would be a near lock to receive the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the Big Ten Tournament if they beat the Hoosiers on Sunday afternoon.
According to Fanson’s algorithm for Big Ten Tournament seeding projections, if the Spartans beat Indiana on Sunday, they’ll have a 46 percent chance at getting the No. 2 seed and a 53 percent chance at getting the No. 3 seed in the conference tournament. This, of course, would be impacted by the other results in the league, most notably how Nebraska finishes out the regular season.
Here is what’s at stake in tomorrow’s MSU at Indiana game. If MSU wins, the No. 2 or No. 3 seed (depending on what Nebraska does) in the BTT is a virtual lock (99.5%).
If MSU loses, there is still a 60% chance at the triple bye, but the No. 4 or No. 5 seed is most likely (73%) pic.twitter.com/KjnWAPRAK2
— Dr. Green and White (@PaulFanson) February 28, 2026
The Spartans are currently 23-5 overall and 13-4 in Big Ten play with three games remaining. Michigan State’s remaining games are against Indiana (road), Rutgers (home) and Michigan (road). So a win over the Hoosiers on Sunday would project Michigan State to finish 15-5 in conference play, with an expected win over Rutgers and loss at Michigan.
If Michigan State were to lose to Indiana on Sunday, then things get more complicated and the Spartans appear more destined for the No. 4 or No. 5 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, according to Fanson. A loss to the Hoosiers would result in the Spartans having a 60 percent chance at still getting a triple-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.
Landing as the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the Big Ten Tournament certainly provides a better chance at making a deep run than if they are in the No. 4 or No. 5 seed range. The obvious reason for that, would be avoiding the clear top team in the league — rival Michigan — until the championship game if both teams were to make it there.
Tipoff for the Spartans’ game at Indiana is scheduled for 3:45 p.m. ET on Sunday. The game will be televised nationally on CBS.
Contact/Follow us @The SpartansWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Michigan State news, notes and opinion. You can also follow Robert Bondy on X @RobertBondy5.
This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: Big Ten Tournament seeding implications for MSU-Indiana game on Sunday
