More region breakdowns: Fort Worth 1 | Sacramento 2 | Fort Worth 3
The 2026 NCAA women’s tournament is just days away. Here’s everything you need to know about Sacramento Region 4.
Who are the favorites?
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No. 1 South Carolina (+900 to win the national title at BetMGM)
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No. 2 Iowa (+10,000)
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No. 3 TCU (+12,500)
Even though the Gamecocks have a massive advantage in this region, they still trail UConn in the odds race. The Huskies, who went undefeated after a dominant run in the Big East, are listed as -275 favorites to win the national championship. UCLA and Texas, the other two No. 1 seeds in the tournament, are above South Carolina, too.
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When will the No. 1 seed go down?
This isn’t the most talented Gamecocks team in recent memory, but they were gifted perhaps the easiest trip to the Final Four of any of the top seeds in this NCAA tournament. South Carolina, after a blowout loss to Texas in the SEC championship game, received the last No. 1 seed in the field. Iowa is the No. 2 seed here, but the Hawkeyes have a ceiling and have struggled against the top tier of teams in the country this season. No. 3 TCU’s success is pretty dependent on Olivia Miles (we’ll get to that).
If the Gamecocks are going to fall, it might be to Oklahoma early on — but that’s only because the Sooners have pulled that off already this season in an overtime stunner. In reality, South Carolina is looking like it’s headed for a sixth straight Final Four appearance.
Who is the Cinderella of the region?
Calling a No. 3 seed a “Cinderella” might feel like a stretch. But TCU can make a very good run in the NCAA tournament this spring if things go right. The Horned Frogs won the Big 12 regular season title after landing Olivia Miles in the transfer portal, which was a huge get for the program after her hot start at Notre Dame. Marta Suarez transferred in, too, and the pair have been a very solid duo throughout the season. Suarez averaged 17.2 points and 7.3 rebounds per game inside, and the Horned Frogs have picked up several significant wins — including two over Baylor and over Audi Crooks and Iowa State.
After their Elite Eight run last season, the Horned Frogs have a pretty clear path to get out of the first round and out to California. A potential matchup with Iowa could be waiting for them in the Sweet 16. As far as No. 2 seeds go, the Hawkeyes are no lock to make the Elite Eight.
If Miles and Suarez are on the same page throughout the tournament, look for the Horned Frogs to go deep once again.
Biggest upset of the region?
Look for Colorado State to knock off Michigan State in the first round here. The Rams won the Mountain West tournament to earn their spot in the field, and they won nine straight to end the year. They are a slower team, which could frustrate the Spartans early on and make up for some of their other weaknesses. This would be a big upset, but it’s not out of the question.
Players to watch
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South Carolina F Joyce Edwards
Joyce Edwards was one of the best players in the SEC this season, which is saying a lot with how top-heavy that league was. Edwards averaged 19.6 points and 6.3 rebounds per game this season, and there were several games in which she shot 70% from the field or better this season.
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Iowa F Hannah Stuekle
Hannah Stuekle isn’t the Hawkeyes’ leading scorer, but she’s undoubtedly the leader of the team. The senior averaged 13.4 points and 8.5 rebounds while shooting better than 53% from the field per game this season and had nine double-doubles on the year. She’s bounced back from a late elbow injury, too. If the Hawkeyes are going to threaten South Carolina, it’ll be because of Stuelke.
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TCU G Olivia Miles
Olivia Miles is wrapping up a career season with the Horned Frogs after transferring in from Notre Dame. She’s put up 19.6 points and 6.9 rebounds per game this season while leading TCU through the Big 12. She had a 40-point outing against Baylor last month, too, and a triple-double against the Cyclones. If TCU is going to make a run here, it’ll be on Miles’ shoulders.
Sacramento Region 4 game schedule, tip times
All times ET
No. 1 South Carolina vs. No. 16 Southern/No. 16 Samford
Where: Columbia, SC
When: Saturday | 1 p.m.
TV: ABC
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 USC
Where: Columbia, SC
When: Saturday | 3:30 p.m.
TV: ESPN2
No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 12 Colorado State
Where: Norman, OK
When: Friday | 7:30
TV: ESPN News
No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 Idaho
Where: Norman, OK
When: Friday | 10 p.m.
TV: ESPN
No. 6 Washington vs. No. 11 South Dakota State
Where: Fort Worth, TX
When: Friday | 2:30 p.m.
TV: ESPN News
No. 3 TCU vs. No. 14 UC San Diego
Where: Fort Worth, TX
When: Friday | 12 p.m.
TV: ESPN
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 Virginia/No. 10 Arizona State
Where: Iowa City, IA
When: Saturday | 1:30 p.m.
TV: ESPN2
No. 2 Iowa vs. No. 15 Fairleigh Dickinson
Where: Iowa City, IA
When: Saturday | 4 p.m.
TV: ESPN
Who makes it to Phoenix?
South Carolina. The Gamecocks will get out of this region without any issue and put their rough outing in the SEC title game well behind them. While it maybe wasn’t as dominant as some of the other seasons in recent history, Staley’s group is a national championship-caliber team. With a bit of momentum throughout this region, there’s no reason to think the Gamecocks can’t make a run at what would be their fourth title under her watch in Phoenix.
