Well, we are back. After the terrible loss to Stanford and the bye week, the Eagles return to action against the California Bears this Saturday. With the line sitting at BC -6.5 and the O/U at 52.5, let’s get into it:
Cal had a very strong start to the season, trouncing overmatched opponents in Oregon State and Texas Southern before upsetting Minnesota in a comfortable 27-14 win. Then the Bears dropped a clunker in Week 4, getting shutout in an ugly 34-0 loss to San Diego State. That loss seems to be the major reason the Eagles are comfortable favorites, given the poor football the Eagles have played recently.
Offensively, Cal’s true freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has shown both great promise and expected learning curves. He’s big — at an athletic 6’3, 225 pounds — and has the arm talent to make throws to all parts of the field. He’s unafraid of taking shots downfield, and he’s shown the ability to utilize different releases on his lefty delivery. His primary targets have been the trio of Trond Grizzell (15 receptions, 266 yards, 1 TD), Jacob De Jesus (20 receptions, 184 yards, 1 TD) and Mark Hamper (13 receptions, 167 yards, 0 TDs). The passing game is supplemented by NC State transfer Kendrick Raphael, who’s averaging 4.6 yards per carry this season.
On Boston College’s side of things, Bill O’Brien said after Tuesday’s practice that the team wasn’t able to get much healthier during the bye week. That likely points to CBs Syair Torrence (who has since been removed from the depth chart) and Amari Jackson (who is still listed as a starter). Other impact players who have battled injuries recently, such as OT Jude Bowry and LB Bam Crouch, are still up in the air. With that in mind, it’s hard to be optimistic about BC’s defense. They are better than they showed against Stanford, but the secondary has some major holes (especially if Omar Thornton keeps missing tackles). Jason Hewlett hasn’t played at all, so Owen McGowan is now a starting LB; if Crouch can’t go, I have concerns about the athleticism of that unit and more concerns about the ability to stop the run. Sagapolutele has the serious talent — no disrespect to Ben Gulbranson — to pose a problem to BC’s defense. Offensively, Michael Crounse has officially taken over at the center spot; hopefully that eliminates any future snap problems. The running game needs to get going; I expect the fumbles to stop but there has been very little room for Richard and McDonald. The hope is that Lonergan is able to shake off the disappointing second half against Stanford and keep rolling, but (and this goes for Sagapoluelete as well) QB development is not linear.
All this to say, I think this game will be close. BC gets what should be a big crowd for Parent’s Weekend, and I think they pull out a win — but Cal covers.
Picks: Cal +6.5, O 52.5
