The No. 3 Miami Hurricanes (4-0) continue their tour of the state of Florida this fall with their third game against a state rival when they travel to Tallahassee to take on the No. 18 Seminoles of Florida State (3-1) Saturday night.
The Seminoles are looking to rebound from a disappointing result in Charlottesville last week when they fell to the Cavaliers in double overtime, 46-38. Their path to the ACC title game and a berth in the college football playoff is still within their grasp, but a loss to the Hurricanes probably dooms those plans.
Seems like we sold Carson Beck a little short. The transfer from Georgia is showcasing the same form he did at the height of his time with the Bulldogs. His play behind a powerful offensive line and a defense that swarms and tackles has the Canes in the running for a national championship.
Lets take a closer look at Florida State and Miami and see if the numbers lead us to a wager or two.
Game Details and How to watch No. 3 Miami at No. 18 Florida State
- Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025
- Time: 7:30PM Eastern
- Site: Doak Campbell Stadium
- City: Tallahassee, FL
- TV/Streaming: ABC
Game Odds for No. 3 Miami at No. 18 Florida State
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Florida State Seminoles (+164), Miami Hurricanes (-198)
- Spread: Penn State -4.5 (-112)
- Total: 53.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Miami Hurricanes
Head Coach: Mario Cristobal
2025 Record: 4-0
Offense Ranking: 7
Defense Ranking: 27
Strength of Schedule: 51
The 2025 Miami Hurricanes are off to a 4–0 start and currently rank 14th in SP+, with an elite offense (7th) and a rising defense (27th) despite a middling schedule strength (51st overall). Offensively, the Hurricanes excel in efficiency with a 53.2% success rate (12th), outstanding passing accuracy (73.0% completion rate, 7th), and a robust red zone touchdown rate of 77.8% (21st), though they rank just 114th in marginal explosiveness. On defense, Miami suffocates opponents with a Top 10 success rate (10th), a stout pass rush that pressures on 34.1% of dropbacks (28th). With a methodical pace (108th in seconds per play) and fourth-down aggressiveness (63rd go rate), Miami’s precise aerial execution and dominant offensive line gives them a legitimate shot at an ACC title run.
The Miami Hurricanes Offense
The 2025 Miami offense ranks 7th nationally in SP+ with a 53.2% success rate (12th), 73.0% completion rate (7th), and 10.3 adjusted net yards per attempt (37th). Despite below-average explosiveness (114th in marginal explosiveness), they maintain scoring consistency with 5.25 points per scoring opportunity (30th) and a red-zone touchdown rate of 77.8% (21st). Their high output is supported by solid offensive line play (30th in pressure rate allowed) and one of the nation’s lowest havoc rates allowed (9.4%, 9th), allowing them to dictate tempo and move the chains efficiently.
Hurricane to Watch on Offense: QB Carson Beck
Beck has been highly efficient through four starts, completing 73.2% of his passes for 972 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He’s posted an impressive 8.8 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), with a QBR of 81.9 that ranks among the nation’s elite. His 54.9% success rate is strong, and he’s been well-protected by the offensive line, taking sacks on only 2.6% of dropbacks despite pressure on 15.8% of them. Beck has also contributed modestly on the ground with 38 rushing yards and a touchdown on 7 carries, showcasing dual-threat competency when needed.
The Miami Hurricanes Defense
The 2025 Miami defense is ranked 27th in SP+ and thrives on disrupting opponents with havoc and efficiency rather than limiting explosive plays. They rank 10th in overall havoc rate (21.0%) and 4th in defensive line havoc, while holding opponents to just a 32.3% success rate (10th) and 3.54 points per scoring opportunity (21st). The Hurricanes are stout against the run, allowing only 3.5 yards per carry (15th) and ranking Top 30 in both rushing and passing EPA. While they allow some big plays (40th in defensive marginal explosiveness), their disruptive front and third-down dominance (5th in third-down success rate allowed) help them consistently get off the field.
Hurricane to Watch on Defense: Edge Rueben Bain
Bain Jr. continues his march toward the 2026 NFL Draft with 24 total tackles (9 solo), an exceptional 92.3% tackle rate and 95.8% of his stops coming against the run. He leads the team with 7 total havoc plays, including 4.0 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, and 1 interception with a pass breakup. As a pass rusher, Bain has generated 14 pressures on 95 rushes (14.7% pressure rate), creating 2 sacks and forcing a fumble, while registering 8 first pressures with a solid 2.84-second average time to pressure. His production on early downs and 27.3% third-down pressure rate solidify him as one of the ACC’s most feared edge defenders.
Florida State Seminoles
Head Coach: Mike Norvell
2025 Record: 3-1
Offense Ranking: 24
Defense Ranking: 28
Strength of Schedule: 55
Florida State has opened the 2025 season 3–1 and ranks 22nd in SP+ thanks to their revitalized offense (8th in success rate, 2nd in EPA/play, 2nd in yards per play) under new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. The Seminoles boast the nation’s 3rd-best rushing attack (6.9 yards per carry) and average a staggering 10.4 yards per dropback (4th) with a 76.9% adjusted completion rate, showcasing a dangerous vertical passing game. Despite modest raw defensive SP+ (28th), the defense has held opponents to just 4.55 yards per play (25th) and ranks 24th in yards per drive, anchored by a solid 36.5% success rate allowed and 34.5% pressure rate. However, special teams (76th) and turnover margin (+0, 69th) are lagging, which could impact outcomes in closer games down the stretch.
The Florida State Seminoles Offense
Florida State’s offense has emerged as a formidable unit, ranking 8th in success rate (54.3%) and 2nd in both EPA/play (0.42) and yards per play (8.19). The ground game is especially lethal, generating 6.9 yards per non-sack carry (3rd) with an elite 55.6% success rate (5th), while also ranking top-5 in yards before contact (3.61). Through the air, the Seminoles average 10.4 yards per dropback (3rd), with a 76.9% adjusted completion rate (13th) and a blistering 26.7% of completions going for 20+ yards (6th). Behind a disciplined offensive line (12th in blown block rate), Florida State ranks 1st nationally in points per drive (4.51) and 10th in red zone TD rate (82.6%), making them deadly at all levels of the field.
Seminole to Watch on Offense: QB Thomas Castellanos
The Boston College transfer has provided Florida State with dynamic dual-threat production, starting all four games and throwing for 848 yards at a 64.3% completion rate while averaging a potent 18.8 yards per completion. His passing success rate of 49.5% and ANY/A of 12.2 highlight his ability to generate big plays through the air while minimizing negative plays, taking sacks on just 2.8% of dropbacks. On the ground, Castellanos has been equally impactful, rushing for 223 yards on 39 carries (5.72 YPC) with a 53.8% success rate and 24.4% of his runs gaining 10+ yards. His balanced threat forces defenses to account for him on every down despite notable turnover issues (3 INTs).
The Florida State Seminoles Defense
Florida State’s defense ranks 28th in SP+ and has shown flashes of being a solid defense, holding opponents to just 4.55 yards per play (25th nationally) and allowing a modest 1.58 points per drive (40th). The unit excels at limiting rushing efficiency, giving up only 3.8 yards per carry (23rd) and posting a top-25 success rate on the ground (34.4%). The Seminoles generate pressure at a high rate (34.5%, 25th) and force negative plays at key moments, but have struggled on passing downs (78th in PD success rate) and rank 116th with an 83.3% tackle rate. Despite a solid front, Florida State’s 104th-ranked 70% red zone TD rate allowed and 4.47 points per scoring opportunity average indicates vulnerability in finishing drives.
Seminole to Watch on Defense: Safety, Ashlynd Barker
Barker has emerged as a core contributor in the secondary, tallying 8 total tackles (6 solo) with an impressive 88.9% tackle rate. He’s been disruptive in multiple phases, generating four havoc plays that include two tackles for loss and two sacks. In pass coverage, Barker allowed just 2 completions on 8 targets (25.0%) for 35 yards and posted a strong 10.3 Defensive QBR against. He also broke up two passes and forced an incompletion rate of 12.5%, demonstrating both physicality at the line and composure in coverage.
Miami at Florida State team stats, betting trends
- Miami (FL) has won its last 3 games as a favorite
- Carson Beck is completing 73.2% of his passes with 7 TDs and 3 INTs
- Tommy Castellanos is completing 64.3% of his passes with 4 TD passes and 3 INTs
- Tommy Castellanos has also rushed for 4 TDs
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): FSU’s Gavin Sawchuck UNDER 56.5 Rushing Yards
Miami’s stout defensive front ranks 12th nationally in rushing success rate and 10th in yards before contact (.30 yards!). While Sawchuk got a massive 17 carry load last week in a sprint against UVA, that’s an extreme outlier based on how HC Mike Norvell has handled his backfield rotation traditionally, opting for a 3+ man rotation most of the time. With opening day starting RB Roydell Williams back from injury and freshman phenom Ousmane Kromah looking incredible in his RB1B role, I expect Sawchuck to see around 10 carries against a Miami D that is worlds better than Virginia’s 91st ranked unit, making his 56.5 Rushing Yards line an Under play for me.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Hurricanes and the Seminoles:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Florida State Seminoles at +4.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 53.5.
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