Five weeks, Four Verts. We’re starting to get a good amount of information on where teams stand and what they can be this season, and we’ll go through some numbers to that effect shortly. But first, a budding Super Bowl contender from Florida that made a statement 3,000 miles away.

Bucs’ offense finally looked like a Super Bowl contender

Tampa Bay had one of the best offenses in the league last year, riding a diverse attack into the playoffs and launching former offensive coordinator Liam Coen into the Jaguars’ head coaching job. Through injuries and a coaching change, the Buccaneers had yet to reach those same heights so far this season, but they just put the torch to one of the best defenses in the NFL on Sunday. In their 38-35 win over the Seahawks, the passing game came to life in a way that can change the outlook of the rest of their season.

The offense that showed up to Lumen Field looked like a team that could go on a serious run in the postseason. Seattle’s defense was banged up, but thanks to their own injuries the Buccaneers haven’t had a fully operational offense at any point this season — just the way it is in football. Still, they were really impressive in what may end up being the most exciting game of the year. In the second half, Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay’s passing game averaged 1.06 expected points per dropback, meaning they gained a touchdown’s worth of value every six passing plays. That’s unbelievable efficiency in a tough spot on the road against one of the stingier defenses in the league.

That was arguably the best performance of Mayfield’s career and it was a performance that was desperately needed to get over the finish line. He’s been inconsistent this season as Tampa Bay was working without a complete offensive line, but things clicked this week and he was a major force behind the line, making plays all over the field in the passing game. The Buccaneers might also have drafted a superstar wide receiver in first-round rookie Emeka Egbuka. He has been unguardable this season and Mayfield’s touchdown pass to him in the back of the end zone was one of the throw-and-catch plays of the season so far.

The fact that Tampa Bay’s offense could perform like this without being at full health is a great sign of what could potentially be in its future once healthy. The Bucs need it, too. That defense is clearly vulnerable and doesn’t have a bunch of talent like in years past. The Bucs will be able to survive that as long as the offense plays closer to how it did in Seattle than in the first four games.

5 interesting data points through 5 weeks

Five weeks in, teams have begun to declare who they can be for the rest of the season, which is interesting this year because the top of the NFL feels wide open in terms of who can win the Super Bowl. Some teams that were expected to be at the top have faltered and created a landscape where a bunch of teams should feel like they have a chance. Here are a few interesting data points from those teams from the first quarter-ish of the season.

Eagles struggle to stay on the field — The Eagles rank 32nd in percentage of drives that fail to gain a single first down with an insane 47.2% of their drives ending in a three-and-out this season. That’s worse than the Titans! There’s really no reason an offense with that much talent should find themselves here, but their 4-1 record has given them a solid foundation to tinker with the offense while remaining atop the NFC East.

Pittsburgh is doing what they do, again — Wins are wins. The Steelers are 3-1 coming off of a bye week last week, a bye in which every single AFC North team lost and they strengthen their hold on what might be the worst division in the league this year. Still, the Steelers aren’t exactly performing like a good team. Their defense ranks 31st in success rate (48.9%) and the offense has been performing at about a league average rate. They still might win the division, but this team screams one-and-done.

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Falcons’ defense might have turned a corner — Atlanta spent a lot of draft capital on its defense this year, including three total first-round picks to acquire Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., and the early returns have been encouraging. The Falcons’ numbers are still being carried by a dismal showing from J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings offense, but ranking sixth in dropback success rate (42.3%) and third in yards per play (4.3) is certainly an improvement from where they’ve been … over the past decade. Their upcoming game on Monday night against the Bills will be a great test for where they really are.

Indianapolis has a juggernaut offense — Name a stat, the Colts are nearly at the top of all of them on offense. Listing them out would be too extensive, but here’s a clear one: The Colts are currently averaging 3.39 points per drive. An elite offense averages around three points per drive, and they are .5 points higher than the second-ranked Lions (2.89). Not only is it the highest mark in the league, it would be the highest figure since the 2004 rule changes by a good margin. The best team in terms of points per drive in that timespan are the 2007 Patriots coming in at 3.19. The 2024 Lions, 2020 Packers and 2018 Chiefs are the only other teams to average more than 3 points per drive for a season. Daniel Jones (!!!!!) and the Colts are in historic company.

Cincinnati has been great when it reaches the red zone — The Bengals have the highest red zone success rate in the league this year at 63%! However, they’ve only run 27 plays in the red zone, third fewest in the league, and they’re just about the worst in the league in every other offensive stat along with the Titans. Things got so bad with Jake Browning they had to trade for Joe Flacco, man. In-division! Maybe the people who think Joe Burrow should win MVP every year are on to something. This is unwatchable slop.

Let’s relive that chaotic final Jags drive vs. the Chiefs

If you watched Monday night’s game between the Chiefs and the Jaguars, you may have walked away pretty confused at the final drive. Don’t worry, you’re not the only one. And no one is here to make it make sense, because it just flatly didn’t. Jacksonville orchestrated one of the best/worst game-winning drives that culminated in truly one of the strangest plays that’s ever happened on a football field. The Jaguars get to be unlikely heroes after nearly throwing the game away on the very drive that got them the win.

Trevor Lawrence took a horrendous sack on a second down after making an incredible reverse-field scramble on first down following the start of their final drive. Right after that, on third down, Lawrence threw an unbelievable pass to Brian Thomas Jr. who was in between two defenders by the sideline. It was one of those throws that remind people just how talented Lawrence has been even amid some underwhelming moments. Lawrence followed that up with a dime to wide receiver Dyami Brown along the left sideline to move the Jaguars into the red zone with a first down.

This is where things got wacky. The Jaguars really have multiple opponents here. One, the 11 Chiefs defenders standing between them and the end zone they desperately need to reach. Two, the ticking clock that had a little over 40 seconds left once they reached the red zone. Third and final, the three timeouts the Chiefs had in their pocket that could be used on a final drive for Patrick Mahomes.

That’s a lot going on, and the Jaguars messed up very quickly by getting a truly confusing delay of game penalty on second-and-10 from the 11-yard line. Then, they threw a screen to Brown who immediately dealt with busted blocking and had to dodge two Chiefs defenders before salvaging the play and getting upfield for a few yards. Jacksonville then called its final timeout of the game, leaving the Chiefs with all three timeouts and only a few seconds burned off the clock after reaching scoring range.

Then, a blessing from the gods. Chiefs cornerback Chamarri Conner couldn’t get his head turned around on a third down heave to the end zone by Lawrence, and a pass interference penalty put the ball on the 1-yard line — and everyone got the payoff they didn’t know they needed.

On first-and-goal, Lawrence’s foot was stepped on immediately after taking the snap and he stumbled to the ground. Disaster. It seemed sure that the Jaguars were going to have to waste precious seconds of a running clock to sprint back up, run another play and try to score a touchdown on the fly. The quarterback is on the ground with no timeouts, 30 seconds left, down four points. Just one hand of a Chiefs defender could have put a huge dent in Jacksonville’s chances to score and win the game.

Then … Lawrence got up. He looked to throw, but saw something even better — no pursuit. The only Chiefs defender that made a real effort to tackle Lawrence once he escaped the pocket was defensive back Jaden Hicks, who was too late coming down from the end zone to make the tackle. Chris Jones walked, literally walked, maybe four or five feet during the duration of the entire play. A completely inexcusable lack of effort from the majority of the defense given the stakes of the play. Playing in the extreme humidity that night couldn’t have been easy, but the game was just about over. Crazy to let Lawrence walk in like that with angles for pursuit.

From there, the defense locked down and got the Jaguars an improbable win where it felt like they were destined to lose at many points in the same drive. But! 4-1 is 4-1. Duval, baby.

Even when Lamar Jackson gets back, Baltimore is in a terrible spot

The Ravens are down incredibly bad. Just when it felt like things couldn’t get worse following a hamstring injury to Lamar Jackson, they gave up a whopping 44 points to the Texans, who have arguably the worst offense in the league. Baltimore’s defense is in a terrible shape with injuries, but that level of futility against a unit struggling that poorly reeks of larger problems that might not be fixable this season. The Ravens are so bad right now that even when Jackson does return from his injury, it’s going to be tough sledding.

Baltimore’s defense was put in a tough spot last week due to the offense sputtering against an elite Houston defense. The Texan’s average starting field position was their own 38-yard line, which doesn’t put them far away from being in field goal range from the first play of any drive. Still, there’s no excuse for allowing 6.3 yards per play and four points per drive to an offense that clearly needs to undergo a massive facelift after the season. The Ravens’ depth should be in a much better spot where they can deal with an offense as beleaguered as Houston’s.

That’s what’s different about this Baltimore team compared to previous iterations. Yes, defensive coordinator Zach Orr is struggling and the calls for his job will only get louder if this level of performance continues. However, they just don’t have all that many effective players behind their starters, particularly on the defensive line. With star defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike out for the season, no one has really stepped up on the interior and made a difference in terms of slowing down the opposing run games.

Just a year after having one of the best run defenses in the league, Baltimore can’t stop a cold. They’re dead last in expected points added per rush (0.14) and 30th in first down percentage on rushing plays (29.4%). Their pass defense has been a disaster as well, but it’s just too hard to stop NFL offenses if the run defense is going to be this poor. No football coach is going to pass up free yards without having to drop back and put the ball in the air.

Getting Jackson back will obviously help — they Ravens automatically have one of the most lethal offenses in the league just by having him on the field. Still, it’s hard to ask even a player of his talents to carry a team in this state. They just need a huge influx of talent on defense, which won’t be possible until next season. The only real saving grace is that it’s going to be fun to watch Jackson try to save their season, which is absolutely in danger of slipping away from them at 1-4.