Clemson football continues its 2025 ACC schedule against the SMU Mustangs at Memorial Stadium Saturday in a rematch of last year’s ACC Championship Game.
Ten months removed from Clemson‘s thrilling win over the Ponies on Nolan Hauser’s 56-yard field goal, the Tigers (3-3 overall, 2-2 ACC) are far away from any potential return to Charlotte for the conference title clash. Nevertheless, Clemson has reeled off back-to-back blowout wins over North Carolina and Boston College, respectively, to get back to .500.
Cade Klubnik threw for 280 yards and had two touchdowns — one passing, one rushing — in a strong performance before rolling his ankle late in the third quarter of the Tigers’ 41-10 win over Boston College in Week 7. While Klubnik didn’t return, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney expects the senior quarterback to play against SMU.
The Mustangs (4-2, 2-0) are coming off a 34-10 win over Stanford at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas last week. Quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns, and sophomore running back Chris Johnson Jr., a Miami Hurricanes transfer, had 96 yards and a score.
Will Clemson beat SMU? ESPN predicts winner of Week 8 game
ESPN’s matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index (FPI) ratings and other variables, gives Clemson a 63.3% chance to win and SMU a 36.7% chance.
Clemson rose 11 spots in the FPI ratings to No. 29 after its 31-point win at Boston College, while SMU rose one spot to No. 40. The Tigers’ overall FPI rating rose from 7.7 to 10.0 entering Week 8. In the latest ratings, Clemson is one spot behind Illinois (10.3 FPI) and one spot ahead of rival South Carolina (9.9).
ESPN projects Clemson football final record, win probability
Clemson football is given a final record projection of 6.6-5.4, according to ESPN’s latest FPI ratings. The metrics give the Tigers a 3.8% chance of winning the last six games of its regular season schedule and a 0.2 percent chance of reaching the ACC Championship Game and returning to the 12-team College Football Playoff.
The Tigers have an 84.4% chance to reach six wins to qualify for a bowl game, per the FPI.
SMU is given a final record projection of 7.5-4.6. ESPN’s metrics give the Mustangs a 3.6% chance to win the ACC and a 2.8% shot of reaching the CFP. Coach Rhett Lashlee’s team has a 96.6% chance to reach six wins.
Clemson vs SMU start time, TV channel
New bowl projections for Clemson football at midway point of 2025 season https://t.co/e89cKC6DNEpic.twitter.com/jZfVuf6v74
— Clemson Wire (@Clemson_Wire) October 14, 2025
Clemson-SMU is scheduled for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff Saturday in Death Valley. The game will be televised on ACC Network. Wes Durham and Steve Addazzio will have the call of the game from the broadcast booth at Clemson Memorial Stadium.
ACC football teams, ranked by ESPN FPI entering Week 8
- 17. North Carolina Tar Heels (-8.7 FPI)
- 16. Boston College Eagles (-6.5 FPI)
- 15. Stanford Cardinal (-5.6 FPI)
- 14. California Golden Bears (-3.8 FPI)
- T-12. Syracuse Orange (-0.8 FPI)
- T-12. Virginia Tech Hokies (-0.8 FPI)
- 11. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-0.4 FPI)
- 10. NC State Wolfpack (3.0 FPI)
- 9. Pitt Panthers (6.4 FPI)
- 8. SMU Mustangs (8.3 FPI)
- T-6. Louisville Cardinals (8.5 FPI)
- T-6. Virginia Cavaliers (8.5 FPI)
- 5. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9.0 FPI)
- 4. Duke Blue Devils (9.6 FPI)
- 3. Clemson Tigers (10.0 FPI)
- 2. Florida State Seminoles (11.3 FPI)
- 1. Miami Hurricanes (19.7 FPI)
What are ESPN FPI ratings?
“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”
Clemson football schedule 2025
All start times Eastern.
- Aug. 30: vs. LSU (L, 17-10)
- Sept. 6: vs. Troy (W, 27-16)
- Sept. 13: at Georgia Tech (L, 24-21)
- Sept. 20: vs. Syracuse (L, 34-21)
- Oct. 4: at North Carolina (W, 38-10)
- Oct. 11: at Boston College (W, 41-10)
- Oct. 18: vs. SMU, 3:30 p.m., ACC Network
- Nov. 1: vs. Duke, TBD
- Nov. 8: vs. Florida State, TBD
- Nov. 14: at Louisville, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
- Nov. 22: vs. Furman, TBD
- Nov. 29: at South Carolina, noon, ABC or ESPN
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This article originally appeared on Clemson Wire: Clemson football odds of beating SMU in Week 8, per ESPN
