This season, only the bottom two teams in the Premier League have scored fewer goals than Aston Villa’s nine in their opening 10 games. It’s a concerning stat made worse by the fact that Villa’s squad relies on just one true out-and-out striker – and he has scored just once all season.
Ollie Watkins has long been praised for his all-round play, and rightly so. His link-up, work rate, and pressing have been integral to Unai Emery’s system. Under the Spaniard, the England striker has chipped in with 14 and 13 assists in all competitions over the past two seasons. This time around? Not a single assist.
According to Opta, Watkins’ expected goals (xG) tally after 10 games stands at just 1.74. He’s managed only three shots on target across that stretch, an alarmingly low number for a player leading the line of a team with top-six aspirations. His conversion rate has also fallen off a cliff: down to 7.1% from 19.1% last season. To put that in context, over a season, the very top strikers typically operate above 20%.
It’s not like the red flags haven’t been there. He led the Premier League in most big chances missed last season. And Emery hasn’t always shown full trust – benching him for both legs against PSG and hauling him off at half-time against RB Leipzig when Villa needed a result.
Yes, France somehow won the 1998 and 2018 World Cups with non-scoring centre-forwards in Stephane Guivarc’h and Olivier Giroud, but international tournament football is a very different beast from club competition. If Watkins isn’t firing, Villa’s entire forward line looks increasingly blunt and if the team continues to rely on moments from the likes of Emi Buendia and Matty Cash, any real ambition in the Europa League or the Premier League starts to feel misplaced.
While Watkins may be very much a confidence player, Villa can’t afford to wait until he’s in the mood. In a system that gives him the trust and the minutes, the goals have to come. Otherwise, he’s the Achilles’ heel in all of Emery’s best-laid plans.
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