Michigan State or Penn State will be picking up their first conference win of the season on Saturday, and the metrics from SP+ at ESPN think it’ll be the Nittany Lions. By a wide margin too.
Bill Connelly of ESPN has released the weekly SP+ predictions for the upcoming slate of college football games, and the model expects the Spartans to experience another blowout loss. SP+ is predicting Penn State to beat Michigan State by the final score of 35-20 on Saturday in Spartan Stadium.
Both Michigan State and Penn State come into this game riding six game losing streaks and winless in Big Ten play. Both teams are 3-6 overall and 0-6 in Big Ten games this year.
Penn State is listed as essentially a touchdown favorite with the line currently set at 7 1/2-points on FanDuel. Kickoff in this game is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, with this one set to be televised on CBS.
My Thoughts on SP+ Prediction
Which Penn State team will we get this week? The one that nearly beat No. 2 Indiana last week or the one that is deflated and lost to Northwestern at home? Good Penn State will handily beat this Spartans team (even with a backup quarterback), but bad Penn State could get blown out by Michigan State on senior day at Spartan Stadium. So with that being said, I feel like the SP+ prediction is off because I don’t personally expect an inspired performance from the Nittany Lions after putting everything into their last two games against Ohio State and Indiana. That doesn’t mean I’m expecting a Spartans’ win this week, but I don’t think they’ll lose by more than two touchdowns as SP+ is predicting.
Complete SP+ Predictions for Week 12
Click on the post below to see the complete breakdown of every Football Bowl Subdivision game that SP+ has predicted the scores for this upcoming week:
WEEK 12 SP+ PICKS
Bama 25, OU 24 đŸ˜¬
Georgia 27, Texas 23
ND 32, Pitt 24
Duke 30, UVA 28
USC 29, Iowa 24
Utah 35, Baylor 22
Louisville 29, Clemson 23
Rebs 35, Gators 17
BYU 30, TCU 23Full list: https://t.co/1UvCJdO4pYpic.twitter.com/epuSVxWH8M
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 9, 2025
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This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: ESPN SP+ ratings system predicts final score for MSU-Penn State matchup
