The Colorado Buffaloes might have switched their focus to 2026, but the Big 12 Conference is very much still up for grabs.
Texas Tech secured a big win over BYU last weekend and looks like a near lock to be one of the teams that will play for the conference title in Arlington. BYU and the Cincinnati Bearcats are the only other teams with one loss. Houston, Utah and Arizona State are the two-loss teams still having a chance.
ESPN’s Football Index also views the Red Raiders as a near-lock to reach the conference title game and gives them a 69.7% chance to win the title.
With just three weeks left in the regular season, here’s a look at how ESPN’s FPI views the Big 12’s postseason picture playing out.
- Texas Tech Red Raiders — 69.7% chance to win Big 12, 84.2% chance to make College Football Playoff
- BYU Cougars — 18.3% (Big 12), 45.2% (CFP)
- Utah Utes — 6.9% (Big 12), 23.9% (CFP)
- Cincinnati Bearcats — 3.5% (Big 12), 3.9% (CFP)
- Arizona State Sun Devils — 1.5% (Big 12), 1.5% (CFP)
- Houston Cougars — 0.1% (Big 12), 0.1% (CFP)
The Big 12 is down to six teams still in contention for the conference title and the CFP. According to FPI, Texas Tech is a big favorite in both, and the two teams from Utah will fight until the end to be that other team.
Another interesting note from FPI is that Utah has the third-highest chance to win out in the conference (45.9), with its finals three games coming at Baylor, vs. Kansas State and at Kansas. BYU, on the other hand, has only a 12.2% chance of winning its final three games vs. TCU, at Cincinnati and vs. UCF. Utah would need two BYU losses, given the Cougars’ head-to-head tiebreaker, to surpass them in the standings.
While Texas Tech looks like the surefire top team, the race for second looks like it will come down to the wire, making for a fascinating November stretch.
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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts Big 12 title game, CFP teams
