BLOOMINGTON — College Football Playoff selection committee chair Mack Rhoades suggested for a second straight week that the conversation separating Indiana and Texas A&M was among the most involved in its weekly rankings.
But in discussing the merits of the Hoosiers and Aggies, Rhoades issued a backhanded warning to both.
Asked specifically about what separated those two teams — each of them undefeated and either tied or leading their conference — Rhoades characterized the committee’s debate between the two as the “second-longest” such deliberation, behind only Ole Miss and Texas Tech.
Each team stayed steady in the committee’s second rankings release, IU at No. 2 and A&M at No. 3.
The Hoosiers survived a scare at 3-6 Penn State on Saturday, thanks to a game-winning drive inside the last two minutes, while Mike Elko’s team won 38-17 on the road against a Missouri team starting a freshman backup quarterback.
“Certainly, discussion about those two games. But also a discussion about body of work. When we think about both of those teams. We looked at Indiana’s win at Oregon, Indiana’s win at Iowa. A&M’s win, certainly, in South Bend, their most recent win at Missouri. Indiana’s win at Penn State,” Rhoades said. “That was the second-longest discussion in the room, two really, really good teams. Really, really close.”
Metrics emphasized multiple times the narrow gap between the two.
Indiana entered this week No. 2 in ESPN’s Football Power Index, compared to the Aggies at No. 7, with IU holding advantages in the Worldwide Leader’s game control and average win probability rankings.
The last two metrics gauge how well a team controls the games it plays, start to finish, compared to both an average top 25 team and an average FBS team.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M enjoys a one-spot advantage in record strength, No. 1 vs. No. 2 nationally, and the Aggies have a leg up on strength of schedule.
The Hoosiers have more quality wins, in particular at Iowa and at Oregon, while as Rhoades pointed out, A&M won at Notre Dame earlier this season. He cited the committee’s consideration in particular of Indiana’s offense-defense balance, as well as Fernando Mendoza’s passing efficiency, in giving Curt Cignetti’s team a narrow edge.
“Again, when we look at schedule strength and record strength, just two of the metrics, those teams are very, very close,” Rhoades said. “Extremely, extremely close.”
His most relevant comment to both camps, though, came in an answer to a bigger-picture question about conference championships.
“We look at it as a positive, if you’re playing in [your] championship game,” Rhoades said. “Obviously, you win it, that’s a plus. If you lose it, theoretically, it’s not supposed to hurt you.”
Rhoades did not leave that “theoretically” dangling out there for long, explaining that if a team in that scenario lost their championship game heavily, it “could hurt you.”
Both Indiana and Texas A&M are currently on pace to appear in their respective conference championship games. As things stand today, the Hoosiers would play No. 1 Ohio State in Indianapolis, while A&M would face No. 4 Alabama in Atlanta.
Should either suffer a heavy defeat in that game, Rhoades said, it could impact their seeding.
“Candidly,” he said, “that would be a conversation in the room.”
Want more Hoosiers coverage? Sign up for IndyStar’s Hoosiers newsletter. Listen to Mind Your Banners, our IU Athletics-centric podcast, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Watch the latest on IndyStar TV: Hoosiers.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Why Indiana football was ahead of Texas A&M in CFP rankings
