Italy are set to learn their route to the 2026 World Cup with the European play-off draw on Thursday, with the Azzurri guaranteed to be one of the top seeds.

Gennaro Gattuso’s side finished second in their qualifying group behind Norway, meaning they’ll now face a two-step play-off route to book their ticket to North America.

Sixteen nations will enter the play-offs in total: the 12 best group runners-up and four additional teams coming via the UEFA Nations League rankings.

Four paths, one shot

The format is simple but ruthless: the teams will be divided into four separate paths, each containing two semi-finals and one final. Every tie is played as a single-leg knockout, with the seeded sides hosting the semi-finals.

MILAN, ITALY – NOVEMBER 16: Players of Italy pose for a team photograph prior to the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match between Italy and Norway at San Siro Stadium on November 16, 2025 in Milan, Italy. (Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)

The semi-finals will be played on March 26, 2026, while the finals are scheduled for March 31, 2026. The host for each final will be determined by an additional draw.

In short, Italy must win two matches in five days to secure qualification.

What seeding means for Italy

Seeding will be based on the November 2025 FIFA World Ranking, and Italy’s position ensures they’ll be placed in the top pot, avoiding several of Europe’s strongest runners-up in the semi-final round.

NOVEMBER 16: Pio Esposito celebrates scoring his team’s first goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match  at San Siro Stadium on November 16, 2025 in Milan (Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)

They will, however, still face potential danger in a one-off final, where anything can happen.

Should the Azzurri progress to the final, their opponent could come from the Nations League entrants’ pool: a category likely to include in-form mid-tier nations who missed direct qualification.