Tuesday morning, USA TODAY Sports national college football writer Blake Toppmeyer released an article in which he argued USC football could miss the College Football Playoff even with a win over the Oregon Ducks because the field will become overcrowded with 10-win Big Ten and SEC teams.
He then argued that if USC is left out despite reaching 10 wins, it could be the end of the College Football Playoff as we know it.
Let’s take a look at his argument and all the layers to this situation, because we need to address it right now before it becomes a real problem.
Overcrowded playoff field
“If No. 15 USC (8-2) upsets No. 5 Oregon (9-1) this weekend and rams its way into the playoff picture, well, I’m afraid the bracket is not going to be big enough to accommodate all the Big Ten and SEC teams that finish with at least 10 victories,” Toppmeyer wrote. “And if USC finished 10-2 and got rejected from the playoff, well, that might be the end of the 12-team playoff as we know it.”
“And, oh my goodness, could you imagine if Michigan beats Ohio State and also finishes 10-2? That would unlock the possibility of five Big Ten teams and six SEC teams finishing with at least 10 wins apiece. You know what that crammed bubble would add up to? Five SEC qualifiers (apologies to Vanderbilt), one from the Big 12, one from the ACC, Notre Dame, and, sorry about your luck Big Ten, but two of your 10-2 teams would get stiffed.”
The 6 SEC teams that could still finish 10-2 or better are Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. The 5 Big Ten teams that could finish with that record or better are Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, USC and Michigan.
Potential move to a 16-team playoff, SEC-backed 5+11 model
“All of a sudden, the SEC-backed 5+11 playoff expansion model will start looking pretty good in Big Ten land once the playoff bubble overloads, and 10-2 teams start getting rejected,” Toppmeyer wrote. “Ten wins by a Big Ten or an SEC team is supposed to get you in the bracket. No rule guarantees that, but that’s the prevailing logic.”
“If USC finished 10-2 and got rejected from the playoff, well, that might be the end of the 12-team playoff as we know it. Killed off by USC’s renegade coach who’s starting to find his stride in the Big Ten.”
With no ACC teams or Group of 6 teams separating themselves like last year (we miss you Boise State), those 2 automatic bids are going to become really annoying for somebody in the Big Ten or SEC. The only solution Toppmeyer sees is to make more room for everyone.
Why I think USC gets a bid if Trojans finish 10-2
Now, let’s go into some reasons why I personally wouldn’t worry too much about USC going 10-2 and missing the playoff. At least, according to all logic. I guess the committee could still screw this up and leave USC out, and if that happens, it could be the end not only of the 12 team playoff, but a sign that college football is the most corrupt (or just flat out stupid) sport in the land. Let’s get into why.
If USC beats Oregon (and UCLA), Trojans are third Big Ten team
This is easy to see. Let’s not overcomplicate it. If USC finishes 10-2, they will tie for the third best record in the Big Ten. The two teams they could potentially be tied with? Oregon and Michigan. They would have head-to-head wins over both.
It’s that easy. USC will have proved they are better than Oregon and Michigan on the football field. So if only 3 Big Ten teams can make it, it should be Ohio State, Indiana and the winner of USC-Oregon. Period.
If head to head wins don’t count in our sport anymore, good God, we might as well stop watching.
The Notre Dame problem
Notre Dame is likely going to make the playoff with a 10-2 record. They also have 2 losses, including against a Miami team that looks a lot worse than when the Fighting Irish played the Hurricanes at the beginning of the season. The Canes may not even be a playoff team at all.
But ND only has 2 ranked wins, against a Pitt team that was ranked for like 10 seconds, and against USC.
If beating USC is this great win that should vault the Irish into the playoff, then 10-2 USC also deserves to be in the playoff, point blank. You can’t qualify Notre Dame for the playoff based on one win over a 10-2 team that the committee doesn’t even believe is a playoff team. If Notre Dame is in, the Trojans are in. Period.
SEC bias
Toppmeyer’s flat out assumption that 5 SEC teams make the playoff if 6 finish 10-2 is a little insulting to me, and should be to any Big Ten fan. Why in the world would 5 SEC teams deserve inclusion while only 3 B1G teams get in?
Two of these teams (Oklahoma, Vanderbilt) lost to Texas, a team that looks like it could finish with 4 losses. Alabama lost to Oklahoma and FLORIDA STATE, a team that may get lucky and make a bowl and is 2-5 in the weak ACC conference. Just by that metric, USC is more deserving than Alabama because Illinois is easily better than FLORIDA STATE.
Let’s not be ludicrous, let’s be fair. 4 teams from each conference get a playoff spot. Then 1 each from the Big 12, ACC, and Group of 6, and Notre Dame/Big 12 runner up.
If the season ends that way, I’d give it to Ohio State, Illinois, Oregon and USC in the Big Ten and Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma in the SEC. Yes, Alabama misses the playoff under my model. Cry about it, and beat the Seminoles or the Sooners at home if you want in next time.
But neither conference can claim the committee was unfair in that situation. The only conference that has a claim to unfairness is maybe the Big 12. But they can all claim the model is unfair all they want, and we can reevaluate a 16-team postseason.
USC disrespect
The tide has turned against USC and Lincoln Riley in the national media this season. The Trojans started the season unranked and remained that way for 5 of their first 6 games. Their superstar players are getting little serious consideration for national awards.
I’d like to think that the committee will give a 10-2 USC team a playoff spot regardless of preseason expectations, or AP Poll disrespect, because they clearly earned it. But if they somehow don’t, good grief, they will awaken a sleeping giant.
They won’t hear the end from wealthy USC alums, players, coaches. And the Trojans will come into next season with the top-ranked recruiting class and a massive chip on their collective shoulder.
You don’t want USC to really become the villains again. So pay attention now, and use sound logic. Or it will be USC against the world next season, with the Trojans taking no prisoners.
Clarification
To clarify, I am not against Toppmeyer or his argument. I think he brings up a great point, and is right that at least 1 10-2 SEC or B1G team will be left out.
I am just expanding on why USC specifically deserves to get in if that situation arises, and adding further notes as to why only 3 out of 4/5 10-2 Big Ten teams making the playoff would be a disaster.
When I address people who are making a potential mistake, I mean the committee, not Toppmeyer.
So, a little louder for the committee members in the back, A POTENTIAL 10-2 USC TEAM DESERVES TO MAKE THE PLAYOFF. The facts are the facts. No excuses!
This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: USC aims to make College Football Playoff with win over Oregon
