Benchmarking Da Bears: Week 12

When the WCG team was asked to make our record predictions following the 2025 NFL schedule release, I wanted to take a cautious approach to the season, despite feeling optimistic about the coaching staff and the new additions to the roster. I’d simply been burnt by this team hanging the “offseason champs” banner too many times to let it get the best of me once again. My prediction was for a modest improvement to 7-10, and with six games left to be played in the regular season, I’ll start the Thanksgiving week festivities by saying I’m so thankful for the Chicago Bears to have already proven me wrong. As for week 12, specifically, the Bears entered the contest with the Pittsburgh Steelers notably down several defensive starters, while Pittsburgh was missing starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers (suspicious timing). It seemed like if there was going to be a game to lean on the offense, this would be it, and to varying levels of success, it paid off:


Quarterback

Caleb Williams again had an up-and-down game, with higher peaks and lower valleys against one of the tougher opponents he’s faced on the year. I’d argue that this game featured Caleb’s worst play of his young career, a T.J. Watt strip sack in the end zone that resulted in a Steelers touchdown. That was, however, Caleb’s only sack on the day while facing a pretty strong pass rush. In addition to avoiding sacks, Williams was also able to throw for three touchdowns on the day. Accuracy continues to be the primary concern in Williams play at this point of the season.

Caleb Williams

Comp: 2022 Jared Goff

Benchmark Statistics:

Games Starts Completions Pass Attempts Completion % Pass Yards Pass TDs INTs Pass Y/A Pass Y/G Pass Rating Sacks Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rush TDs Rush Y/A Rush Y/G QBR Fumbles Awards
Goff 17 17 382 587 65.1% 4438 29 7 7.6 261.1 99.3 23 29 73 2.5 4.3 63.3 7 Pro Bowl
Williams 11 11 213 360 59.2% 2568 16 4 7.1 233.5 91.3 17 56 293 3 5.2 26.6 55.3 6
Williams – Projected 17 17 329.2 556.4 59.2% 3968.7 24.7 6.2 7.1 233.5 91.6 26.3 86.5 452.8 4.6 5.2 26.6 9.3

Running Backs

The running backs only carried the ball twenty times in this matchup as Ben Johnson appeared to prefer attacking the Pittsburgh defense through the air. What’s more interesting is that Kyle Monangai actually out-carried D’Andre Swift 12 to 8. The rookie was the more productive back, averaging 4.0 yards per carry to Swift’s 1.9. Monangai also added the Bears’ lone rushing score, his third game in a row finding the endzone.

D’Andre Swift

Comp: 2022 D’Andre Swift

Benchmark Statistics:

Games Starts Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rush TDs Rush Y/A Rush Y/G Targets Receptions Rec Yards Rec Y/R Rec TDs R/G Rec Y/G Fumbles Awards
Swift (DET) 14 8 99 542 5 5.5 38.7 70 48 389 8.1 3 3.4 27.8 1
Swift (CHI) 10 10 142 649 4 4.6 64.9 34 24 224 9.3 1 2.4 22.4 2
Swift (CHI) – Projected 16 16 227.2 1038.4 6.4 4.6 64.9 54.4 38.4 358.4 9.3 1.6 2.4 22.4 3.2

Kyle Monangai, DJ Moore, Roschon Johnson, etc.

Comp: 2024 David Montgomery

Benchmark Statistics:

Games Starts Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rush TDs Rush Y/A Rush Y/G Targets Receptions Rec Yards Rec Y/R Rec TDs R/G Rec Y/G Fumbles Awards
Montgomery 14 14 185 775 12 4.2 55.4 38 36 341 9.5 2.6 24.4 2
Bears 11 1 124 552 6 4.5 50.2 17 10 97 9.7 0.9 8.8
Bears – Projected 17 1 191.6 853.1 9.3 4.5 50.2 26.3 15.5 149.9 9.7 0.9 8.8

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet caught his only target for a short gain, but the more relevant story to come out of the TE room is the continued momentum of Colston Loveland. Loveland was targeted five times, catching four of those, including his third touchdown of the season. The emergence of Chicago’s 1st round pick is something that will pay off not only as the games mean more this season, but for years to come.

Cole Kmet

Comp: 2021 T.J. Hockenson

Benchmark Statistics:

Games Starts Targets Receptions Rec Yards Rec Y/R Rec TDs R/G Rec Y/G Fumbles Awards
Hockenson 12 12 84 61 583 9.6 4 5.1 48.6
Kmet 10 9 29 17 195 11.5 1 1.7 19.5
Kmet – Projected 16 14 46 27 312 11.5 1.6 1.7 19.5

Colston Loveland

Comp: 2023 Sam LaPorta

Benchmark Statistics:

Games Starts Targets Receptions Rec Yards Rec Y/R Rec TDs R/G Rec Y/G Fumbles Awards
LaPorta 17 14 120 86 889 10.3 10 5.1 52.3 Pro Bowl
Loveland 10 8 38 28 378 13.5 3 2.8 37.8
Loveland – Projected 16 12.8 60.8 45 604.8 13.5 4.8 2.8 37.8

Wide Receivers

Before I touch on the biggest bright spot shining from the WR group, let me share a quick overview on how the four players we’ve been following all performed. The targets broke down like this: Odunze – 9, Moore – 7, Burden – 5, and Zaccheaus – 1. Rome was only able to bring in three receptions on the day, but is still clearly Williams’ go-to receiver. Continuing our youth movement of rookies on offense (and that’s without even mentioning Ozzy Trapilo), Burden has potentially settled into a WR3 role ahead of OZ. DJ Moore though, found his way into the endzone for two scores in a “get right” performance following a 1-for-7 statline over the previous two games. I previously wrote that Moore’s disappointing season would be cause for concern if the Bears weren’t winning, but you have to think a game like this against a decent level of competition is a nice refresher for him as the team enters a key stretch with playoff implications at stake.

DJ Moore

Comp: 2024 Amon-Ra St. Brown

Benchmark Statistics:

Games Starts Targets Receptions Rec Yards Rec Y/R Rec TDs R/G Rec Y/G Fumbles Awards
St. Brown 17 17 141 115 1263 11 12 6.8 74.3 1 Pro Bowl, All-Pro
Moore 11 11 58 36 485 13.5 3 3.3 44.1 1
Moore – Projected 17 17 90 55.6 750 13.5 4.6 3.3 44.1 1.5

Rome Odunze

Comp: 2024 Jameson Williams

Benchmark Statistics:

Games Starts Targets Receptions Rec Yards Rec Y/R Rec TDs R/G Rec Y/G Fumbles Awards
Williams 15 11 91 58 1001 17.3 7 3.9 66.7
Odunze 11 11 84 42 653 15.5 6 3.8 59.4
Odunze (Projected) 17 17 129.8 64.9 1009.2 15.5 9.3 3.8 59.4

Olamide Zaccheaus

Comp: 2023 Josh Reynolds

Benchmark Statistics:

Games Starts Targets Receptions Rec Yards Rec Y/R Rec TDs R/G Rec Y/G Fumbles Awards
Reynolds 17 13 64 40 608 15.2 10 2.4 35.8 1
Zaccheaus 11 3 51 33 254 7.7 1 3.0 23.1
Zaccheaus – Projected 17 4.6 79 51.0 393 7.7 1.5 3.0 23.1

Luther Burden III

Comp: 2023 Jameson Williams

Benchmark Statistics:

Games Starts Targets Receptions Rec Yards Rec Y/R Rec TDs R/G Rec Y/G Fumbles Awards
Williams 12 10 42 24 354 14.8 2 2 29.5 1
Burden 10 1 28 22 295 13.4 1 2.2 29.5
Burden – Projected 16 1.6 45 35.2 472 13.4 1.6 2.2 29.5

With a short week ahead, the Bears offense will turn their attention toward someone Chicago is very familiar with: Vic Fangio, as they prepare to face the once-allied Philadelphia Eagles (IFYKYK) on Black Friday. This may be the first true “measuring stick” game that this team has had since the start of the year and it’ll be interesting to see how productive they can be against a proven contender.

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