The 95th edition of the “Crosstown Showdown” will take place Saturday when the No. 17 USC Trojans (8-3) host the UCLA Bruins (3-8) at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
This game is all about the Victory Bell and bragging rights in Southern California. USC’s playoff aspirations were extinguished with a loss to the Ducks at Oregon last weekend while UCLA’s season got off to a horrendous start and has never really recovered. That said, USC will improve its bowl invite with a win. UCLA is far from bowl-eligible but can change the conversation regarding its season with a win over its rival.
Lets dive into each school on both sides of the ball, highlight a few players to watch, and talk about the numbers that are important for each.
The USC / UCLA Series by the Numbers
Overall: USC leads 51-34-7
Home Team (USC): 25-17-4
Home Team (UCLA): 26-17-3
Last 10 Games: 7-3
First Meeting: September 28, 1929 – USC won 76-0
Game Details and How to Watch USC vs. UCLA
- Date: Saturday, November 29, 2025
- Time: 7:30PM Eastern
- Site: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
- City: Los Angeles, CA
- TV/Streaming: NBC / Peacock
Game Odds for USC vs. UCLA
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: USC Trojans (-1800), UCLA Bruins (+1000)
- Spread: USC -22.5 (-105)
- Total: 58.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
UCLA Bruins
Head Coach: Tim Skipper (Interim)
2025 Record: 3-8 (3-5)
Offense Ranking: 104
Defense Ranking: 97
Strength of Schedule: 2
UCLA’s in the midst of a steep rebuild following the dismissal of HC Deshaun Foster, as the Bruins sit at 3-8 (3-5 Pac-12) with an SP+ ranking of 101st and one of the nation’s toughest schedules (No. 2 SOS). The offense ranks 104th in SP+, averaging just 5.25 yards per play and 1.81 points per drive, hampered by poor efficiency metrics like a 41.5% success rate (83rd) and an alarming 31% three-and-out rate. Defensively, UCLA has fared even worse — ranking 97th in SP+ and dead last nationally in rushing success rate allowed (53.2%), third-down defense (54.0%), and yards per drive (41.0), underscoring systemic issues in tackling and gap control. Despite brief flashes, like the October wins over Penn State and Michigan State, the Bruins have been unable to sustain consistency against upper-tier competition, posting a -15.0 adjusted scoring margin per game (130th). With the Bruins ranking outside the Top 100 in both efficiency and explosiveness, UCLA’s 2025 campaign has served as a developmental year.
The UCLA Bruins Offense
UCLA’s offense has struggled to find rhythm in 2025, ranking 104th nationally in SP+ with a lack of both efficiency and explosiveness. The Bruins average just 5.25 yards per play (102nd) and 1.81 points per drive (105th), with a 41.5% success rate (83rd) that reflects frequent stalled drives and limited first-down conversions. While the rushing attack shows flashes at 5.2 yards per carry (46th), inconsistent blocking (13.1% blown run block rate) and poor passing efficiency (5.9 yards per dropback, 96th) have stunted production. Despite a modest tempo and balanced play calling from my doppelganger OC Jerry Neuheisel, UCLA’s offense remains one-dimensional and turnover-prone, struggling to finish drives with touchdowns (60.7% red-zone TD rate, 81st) or keep pace with more explosive Pac-12 opponents.
UCLA Player to Watch on Offense: QB Nico Iamaleava
Nico Iamaleava’s dual-threat ability has been the driver of UCLA’s milquetoast offense, accounting for 1,728 passing yards and 616 rushing yards across 10 starts. As a passer, he’s completed 63.5% of his throws with a 6.1 adjusted net yards per attempt and 12 touchdowns to 7 interceptions, showing limited explosiveness at just 5.8 yards per dropback. His mobility has been a major asset, averaging 7.9 yards per carry with a 62.8% rushing success rate and generating a first down on nearly half his runs despite facing pressure on over 21% of dropbacks. While still developing as a pocket passer, Iamaleava’s athleticism and off-script playmaking have often been the only consistent source of offensive production for the Bruins in 2025.
The UCLA Bruins Defense
UCLA’s defense has been one of the P4’s weakest units in 2025, ranking 97th in SP+ and allowing 5.99 yards per play (107th) and 3.13 points per drive (134th). The Bruins have been especially porous against the run, surrendering a 53.2% rushing success rate (136th) and ranking dead last nationally in third-down defense (54.0%), signaling a consistent inability to get off the field. Their overall havoc rate (11.5%, 129th) and meager 2.4% sack rate (136th) illustrate a front seven that rarely pressures opposing quarterbacks or creates negative plays. While the secondary has been slightly more competitive in man coverage, UCLA’s defensive inefficiency, poor tackling, and lack of disruptive playmaking have made it one of the most exploitable groups among power conference teams.
UCLA Player to Watch on Defense: CB Rodrick Pleasant
Cornerback Rodrick Pleasant has been UCLA’s most productive defender in coverage with shutdown efficiency. Targeted on 15.4% of coverage snaps, Pleasant allowed completions on just 46.5% of passes for 185 yards and a stellar 4.3 yards per target, while breaking up eight passes and surrendering only two touchdowns. His 18.6% forced incompletion rate and 21.9 defensive QBR against rank among the best marks in the Pac-12, highlighting his ability to erase opposing receivers on an island. Pleasant also contributes against the run with 43 tackles and 10 havoc plays, making him one of the few bright spots on an otherwise struggling Bruins’ defense. He missed last game, and his status will be vital if UCLA is going to pull off the upset over their crosstown rival.
USC Trojans
Head Coach: Lincoln Riley
2025 Record: 8-3 (6-2)
Offense Ranking: 9
Defense Ranking: 42
Strength of Schedule: 22
Lincoln Riley’s 2025 USC Trojans have recorded an 8–3 record (6–2 B10), powered by a Top 10 offense and a much-improved defensive structure under DC D’Anton Lynn. The offense ranks 9th in SP+, generating 7.22 yards per play (6th nationally) and converting drives at an elite 3.35 points per possession, with a balanced attack that ranks Top 10 in both passing and rushing efficiency. Defensively, USC remains a work in progress — ranking 42nd in SP+ — as they allow 45.1% success rate (118th) and struggle against the run (48.4% rushing success rate allowed, 130th). However, the Trojans’ high-leverage playmaking, highlighted by wins over Michigan and Iowa, has kept them in the Top 20 nationally with a +10.1 adjusted scoring margin, showing clear signs of growth as Riley’s program continues to evolve post-Caleb Williams.
The USC Trojans Offense
USC’s offense has returned to elite form under Lincoln Riley, ranking 9th in Offensive SP+ while averaging 7.22 yards per play (6th nationally) and 3.35 points per drive (7th). The Trojans boast one of the nation’s most efficient and explosive units, posting a 49.6% success rate (9th) and 0.28 EPA per play (5th) with Top 10 marks in both rushing and passing explosiveness. Their balanced attack features a 47.2% rushing success rate (34th) paired with a lethal 51.9% passing success rate (5th), as USC’s quarterbacks lead the country in Total QBR (91.9) and convert 61% of completions into first downs. Protected by a disciplined front that allows pressure on just 2.9% of dropbacks, this offense remains one of the most potent scoring machines in college football.
USC Player to Watch on Offense: WR Makai Lemon
Makai Lemon emerged as USC’s go-to weapon in 2025, leading the team with 107 targets, 78 receptions, 1,124 yards, and 10 touchdowns while earning an elite 90.8 PFF offensive grade. His combination of volume and efficiency stood out — posting a 72.9% catch rate, 14.4 yards per reception, and 10.5 yards per target, thriving on a diverse route tree that split 48% short, 22% intermediate, and 30% deep routes. Lemon was a consistent chain-mover, converting 62.8% of catches into first downs while ranking among national leaders in yards after catch (6.4 per reception) and maintaining a microscopic 1.1% drop rate. Lining up in the slot on 55% of snaps, he proved to be both reliable and explosive, the clear centerpiece of USC’s high-powered passing attack.
The USC Trojans Defense
USC’s defense has shown modest improvement under D’Anton Lynn, ranking 42nd in Defensive SP+ but still struggling with consistency, allowing a 45.1% success rate (118th nationally). The Trojans’ front flashes disruptive potential producing a 6.8% sack rate (36th) and a 7.3% defensive line havoc rate (20th), yet remains vulnerable against the run, surrendering 5.2 yards per carry (101st) and ranking 130th in rushing success rate allowed (48.4%). The secondary has been steadier, holding opponents to just 6.1 yards per dropback (57th) and forcing incompletions on 28.3% of passes defended, though explosive plays remain a concern. Overall, USC’s defense is opportunistic but bend-heavy, relying on pressure and timely stops to offset its issues with efficiency and maintaining gap integrity.
USC Player to Watch on Defense: LB Eric Gentry
Eric Gentry has been the tone-setter of USC’s defense in 2025, leading the Trojans with 71 total tackles, including 44 solo stops, while adding 13 havoc plays, 7 tackles for loss, and 3 sacks. His versatility was on full display, as he generated a 20.8% pressure rate on 48 pass-rush snaps, forced a fumble, and broke up a pass, ranking among the most disruptive off-ball linebackers in the B10. Gentry’s 85.5% tackle efficiency and 71.8% run-stop rate highlight his reliability in space and his ability to consistently finish plays from sideline to sideline. A true field general, his blend of instincts, and pass-rush ability made him the centerpiece of USC’s defense under D’Anton Lynn.
USC and UCLA team stats, betting trends
- USC has won its last 7 at home, while UCLA has lost 4 in a row
- USC is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite
- UCLA is 3-8 ATS this season
- The OVER has cashed in 6 of UCLA’s 11 games this season (6-5)
Rotoworld Best Bets
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Eric Froton (@CFFroton): UCLA Team Total UNDER 17.5 Points
UCLA has struggled mightily since their brief three-game resurgence against Penn State, Michigan State and Maryland. In the past four games since, they managed only 6 points against Indiana, 10 against OSU and 14 versus Washington last weekend. Only a 28-21 loss to Nebraska was above UCLA’s current 17.5 Team Total against USC. Iamaleava missed their game at Ohio State with a concussion but returned against Washington only to take the single most vicious sack I witnessed in person all season long. The hit knocked Nico out of the game with the Tennessee transfer visibly distressed. I have serious reservations about whether or not Nico suits up for the last game of the season with at least one recent concussion and possibly another on Saturday. If Nico is out, Luke Duncan will get the nod and we will see this 17.5 points-line plummet. Take the UNDER 17.5 now and watch the market crash when Nico is likely ruled out.
****
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for Saturday’s game between USC and UCLA
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the UCLA Bruins at +21.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the UNDER on the Game Total of 59.5.
NBC Sports has you covered with all the latest college football betting news and analysis.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
