UNC basketball vs Kentucky prediction: Will Tar Heels beat Wildcats?

Kentucky basketball guards Otega Oweh, Denzel Aberdeen vs UNC guards Kyan Evans, Luka Bogavac

Kentucky senior Otega Oweh, the preseason SEC Player of the Year, has yet to play to that potential through seven games, but the breakout potential is there against UNC. Oweh is averaging 13 points per game and is one of the top two-way players in the nation. Florida transfer Denzel Aberdeen is averaging a team-best 14 points and 3.4 assists per game, with 11 steals. Aberdeen had 12 points in a win against the Tar Heels last season.

With the Wildcats’ top two players being guards, Kyan Evans and Luka Bogavac have to be better than they were in UNC’s loss to Michigan State. That duo has combined to make just 32% of their 3-pointers through seven games, including a 1-for-11 shooting performance against the Spartans. If the Tar Heels are going to win at Rupp, they need to reach double-digit 3-pointers like Louisville and Michigan State did. It starts with Bogavac and Evans.

UNC freshman Caleb Wilson vs Wildcats, Rupp Arena crowd

Caleb Wilson picked the Tar Heels over the Wildcats and is thriving as UNC’s go-to player through seven games. Averaging 19.9 points and 9.9 rebounds, Wilson reached 20 or more points in four of his first five games before a pair of 18-point performances. Drawing nearly eight fouls per game, Wilson needs to maintain that aggressiveness against Kentucky, which allowed 31 free throws in its loss to Louisville. After logging five turnovers in the first four games, the 6-foot-10 forward has seven turnovers over the last three as teams adjust to how they defend him. As a player who got away from Kentucky in a recruiting battle, Wilson is likely to receive quite the “welcome” from the Rupp Arena crowd of more than 20,000 fans. It’ll be interesting to see how he embraces that first true road test.

Jasper Johnson, Wildcats bench against UNC

Kentucky is getting 33 points per game from its bench players, a mark that puts the Wildcats among the top-50 teams in that stat. UNC is in the 300s in that category, averaging just under 18 points per game from its reserves. Ranked 18th nationally in bench minutes, according to KenPom, the Wildcats have a slew of options. Those options could increase depending on the injury statuses of Jaland Lowe (shoulder) and Mouhamed Dioubate (ankle), but freshman Jasper Johnson is the headliner off the bench. Johnson has scored at least eight points in the last four games and dished out four or more assists in three wins. UNC got five points from its bench in the loss to Michigan State and Seth Trimble’s absence contributes to those issues. But the Tar Heels have to start getting more production from their reserves.

UNC vs Kentucky score prediction

Kentucky 77, UNC 71: Trimble’s injury continues to hinder the Tar Heels’ depth, which could be tested further against the Wildcats. Like UNC, Kentucky is dealing with some injuries, but its bench has been a more consistent to this point. That factor, along with playing at Rupp Arena, should give the Cats an advantage in UNC’s first road test.

Rodd Baxley covers North Carolina Tar Heels athletics for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding UNC? Send them to rbaxley@usatodayco.com.