CHICAGO — The College Football Playoff committee injected a little extra anxiety into Notre Dame’s week of waiting.
The Irish (10-2) dropped one spot to No. 10 on Tuesday — with Alabama (10-2) jumping to No. 9 after its 27-20 win over Auburn — in the second-to-last CFP ranking before the 12-team bracket is set Sunday.
Because two spots are guaranteed to go to lower-ranked champions from the ACC or Group of Five conferences, that means the Irish are looking to hold on to the last at-large bid during their week off — when several other teams are playing in conference championship games.
CFP committee chair Hunter Yurachek said in a Tuesday night news conference that idle teams can move in the final ranking based on the results of other teams’ championship games.
“There may be something that happens in a championship game that impacts an idle team,” Yurachek said. “Whether that’s their strength of schedule or some other data point that we use, or there could be a team that suffers a significant loss in a title game.”
Despite the uncertainty, there remains an obvious path to a second straight playoff berth for Notre Dame, which has won 10 straight after opening losses to No. 12 Miami and No. 7 Texas A&M.
Here’s a look at Notre Dame’s biggest obstacles to making the playoff:
No. 11 BYU
This week: The Cougars (11-1) play No. 4 Texas Tech (11-1) in the Big 12 championship game on Saturday.
The problem: As things stand, BYU would be out of the playoff, with the final two spots behind Notre Dame going to the two highest-ranked conference champions beyond the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12.
But the Cougars can force the committee’s hand by beating Texas Tech and securing a berth as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. That would drop the Red Raiders to 11-2.
The Red Raiders suffered their lone loss at Arizona State in October and have wins over BYU, No. 15 Utah and No. 21 Houston. That resume likely would persuade the committee to give Texas Tech an at-large bid over Notre Dame, even if it loses in the Big 12 championship game.
The good news for Notre Dame: Texas Tech won its first meeting with BYU 29-7.
No. 9 Alabama
This week: The Crimson Tide play No. 3 Georgia (11-1) in the SEC championship game on Saturday.
The problem: The committee decided the Tide’s resume — with losses to No. 8 Oklahoma and Florida State but wins at Georgia, against No. 14 Vanderbilt and at Auburn — is better than Notre Dame’s.
Alabama leapfrogging Notre Dame after a week in which both beat unranked teams sets up the CFP to give the Tide a playoff berth even if they lose to Georgia. That would eat up one of the at-large bids Notre Dame is eyeing.
But would that change if Alabama suffers a blowout loss to the Bulldogs in the SEC championship game?
Yurachek said Alabama-Notre Dame has been one of the fiercest debates within the committee, with representatives strongly in both camps.
“It’s just Alabama in a rivalry game on the road,” Yurachek said of what pushed the Tide ahead of Notre Dame. “Auburn has been an extremely tough place to play for many teams this year, such as Georgia and Vanderbilt, and the committee gave Alabama a little respect for winning that game, getting out early 17-0. The game got tied again, and Alabama, a gutsy call there late in the game to go for it on fourth-and-2 and then getting a turnover again late in the game.
“The committee just felt like that was enough of a win, of a metric, to push Alabama ahead of Notre Dame.”
The good news for Notre Dame: Alabama currently occupies the second-to-last at-large spot, leaving another bid for the Irish to claim.
No. 12 Miami
This week: Off.
The problem: The comparison between Notre Dame and Miami (10-2) has been the biggest hot-button issue in the CFP rankings all season.
The Hurricanes beat Notre Dame 27-24 in the season opener. The Irish then lost 41-40 to Texas A&M. Since then, the Notre Dame defense found its footing under new coordinator Chris Ash, and the offense started to hum behind Heisman Trophy candidate Jeremiyah Love and first-year quarterback CJ Carr. The Irish have won 10 straight, including over No. 16 USC.
Meanwhile, the Hurricanes lost to unranked Louisville and SMU and are not playing in the ACC championship game. Their lone ranked win was over Notre Dame.
Despite Miami’s head-to-head advantage, the CFP committee continues to keep Notre Dame ahead of the Hurricanes by more than one spot, but the gap has been closing. Yurachek has said it’s easier to use the head-to-head criterion when teams are ranked next to one another.
If the rankings shift enough that Miami and Notre Dame are next to each other, would the committee reconsider its hierarchy?
“The head-to-head is one data point that the committee will use,” Yurachek said. “It’s obviously easier to use that data point when the teams are back-to-back as opposed to when they’re separated by a team or two or three, as has been the case.”
The good news for Notre Dame: Miami didn’t make the ACC championship game; unranked Duke and No. 17 Virginia are playing for that title. So the Hurricanes can’t do anything this week to change the mind of the committee, which clearly has favored the Irish.
Yurachek explained the committee’s thoughts on why Notre Dame was ahead of Miami on Tuesday night, noting the Hurricanes were No. 18 in the first ranking after Week 10 because they had lost two of their last three games.
“Notre Dame is the winner of 10 straight,” he said. “During that 10-game winning streak, they’ve outscored their opponents 440 to 143. They’ve been very consistent offensively in how they run the ball, in how they pass the ball, very explosive offense. I think they’re third in explosive plays.”
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