Duke playoff scenarios, explained: How win in ACC title game created CFP rankings chaos originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The question all week was not if the unranked, 7-5 Duke Blue Devils deserved to be in the ACC Championship, but how they got there.
The answer to the latter was a chaotic ACC finale: a five-way tie for second place between Duke, Miami, Georgia Tech, SMU, and Pitt, which was ultimately broken by Duke’s superior conference opponent winning percentage—the exact tiebreaker needed after SMU fell on the road to Cal last week. Duke, with its 6-2 conference record, was deemed to have played the toughest schedule among the tied teams, earning the unlikely title berth.
But head coach Manny Diaz insisted the focus was on the game, not the politicking. On Saturday night, Duke answered the former question with action. In a dramatic 27-20 overtime victory over the ranked Virginia Cavaliers, the Blue Devils claimed their first-ever ACC Championship Game win, advancing their record to 8-5.
With the win, the politicking that Diaz alluded to will begin before the College Football Playoff rankings come out on Sunday afternoon. Here’s where the win puts the ACC champs in the playoff picture.
MORE: Duke beats Virginia in ACC Championship thriller
Is Duke in the College Football Playoff with a victory?
Duke still has an outside chance to make the College Football Playoff, and after the ACC Championship victory, Diaz said why the Blue Devils should have a spot, with “new information” being the reason why.
Manny Diaz’s message on if Duke should be in the playoff. pic.twitter.com/9zyWU8Rxmn
— Jake Mozarsky (@jmozarsky) December 7, 2025
“So we played 10 Power Four teams, right?” Diaz said. “Comparing us to James Madison, for example, who had a fantastic season. Their schedule strength is in the hundreds, ours is in the fifties. Seven Power Four wins as opposed to zero Power Four wins. 0-1 versus the ACC as opposed to seven wins in the ACC and ACC champions.”
Diaz also went on to say Duke would not be the team they are without the losses they suffered. He called the losses “the reason why we’re a champion today.”
“Without [the losses] I’m not sure we would’ve had the wherewithal to recognize what it takes to pull out a game like this against an outstanding Virginia team,” Diaz said. “The ACC conference champion should go into the College Football Playoff this year and every year, and we’ll be very excited to find out how they roll on that tomorrow.”
MORE:Why Notre Dame over Miami despite head-to-head loss? Here’s why
Which teams are helped by an ACC victory?
Duke’s win has created a predicament for the College Football Playoff committee: will it be the ACC champion, Duke, or the Sun Belt champion, the James Madison Dukes?
James Madison
The Dukes defeated Troy in the Sun Belt title game on Friday, finishing the season at 12-1. Because Duke is a five-loss, unranked champion, JMU (who was ranked No. 25 in the penultimate rankings) is now the favorite to claim the final automatic bid as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Most projections now put the Sun Belt champion ahead of the ACC champion.
All signs — and statistical projections — point to James Madison as No. 12 in your CFP bracket. Duke is your ACC champion. Wow. https://t.co/VSimo2zK04
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) December 7, 2025
Diaz made sure to credit James Madison for its “fantastic season” in his postgame presser, but also said the Sun Belt is no comparison to the ACC.
“[James Madison] played Troy at home last night, and Troy has a backup quarterback,” Diaz said. “And it’s a three-point game until really the last few minutes … they won the game, they won the conference, but you just can’t compare going through the Sun Belt this year.”
Diaz also said that Duke’s schedule should give them the advantage over James Madison.
“That’s the whole point of why you play a Power Four schedule,” Diaz said. “There’s a reason why all these coaches are leaving to take Power Four jobs. There’s a recognition to that, that’s where the best competition is, and that’s no different in our league.”
Miami
Miami may be the biggest beneficiary of the chaos. The Hurricanes finished the regular season at 10-2 but missed the ACC Championship on a tiebreaker. With Duke winning the title, the ACC will likely have zero automatic bids. This scenario benefits Miami, who must now compete for one of the at-large spots. Miami also received a boost from the BYU loss. Though, with an Alabama loss, Miami might not get into the 12-team field.
Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish did not play this weekend but are sitting at 10-2 with a 10-game win streak. A Duke win removes a potential ranked ACC champion (Virginia) from the at-large picture, likely solidifying Notre Dame’s spot as one of the higher-ranked teams. Their 10-2 resume remains strong enough to be confident about an at-large bid.
After the Alabama loss, it’s safe to say Notre Dame will slot in as the No. 9 seed in the rankings.
BYU
The Cougars’ Playoff hopes were decisively eliminated on Saturday. BYU was soundly defeated by No. 4 Texas Tech, 34-7, in the Big 12 Championship. The loss drops the Cougars to 11-2 and guarantees they will fall out of the top dozen in the final CFP rankings, taking them out of contention for an automatic or at-large bid.
